| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.817997700945157 |
| beta | 0.2933998653243 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 277128 | 271656.566784364 | 5471.43321563635 |
| 14 | 277103 | 277483.788053612 | -380.788053612225 |
| 15 | 275037 | 276553.613661103 | -1516.61366110318 |
| 16 | 270150 | 271511.576976334 | -1361.57697633351 |
| 17 | 267140 | 268175.396332338 | -1035.39633233793 |
| 18 | 264993 | 265732.685660588 | -739.685660588148 |
| 19 | 287259 | 286079.615126911 | 1179.38487308915 |
| 20 | 291186 | 295655.565841303 | -4469.5658413028 |
| 21 | 292300 | 292433.771377636 | -133.771377635538 |
| 22 | 288186 | 287763.92774633 | 422.072253669729 |
| 23 | 281477 | 280748.888588171 | 728.111411829479 |
| 24 | 282656 | 281926.243210006 | 729.756789993553 |
| 25 | 280190 | 282346.697498893 | -2156.69749889342 |
| 26 | 280408 | 278761.328973549 | 1646.67102645116 |
| 27 | 276836 | 277668.427284065 | -832.427284064761 |
| 28 | 275216 | 271783.440257512 | 3432.55974248797 |
| 29 | 274352 | 272133.634029734 | 2218.36597026634 |
| 30 | 271311 | 272879.819984581 | -1568.81998458074 |
| 31 | 289802 | 293771.524433044 | -3969.52443304373 |
| 32 | 290726 | 297279.034802464 | -6553.03480246372 |
| 33 | 292300 | 291744.672675449 | 555.327324550657 |
| 34 | 278506 | 286525.052894788 | -8019.05289478751 |
| 35 | 269826 | 269713.726168638 | 112.273831362312 |
| 36 | 265861 | 267065.386140095 | -1204.38614009455 |
| 37 | 269034 | 261685.810345150 | 7348.18965484964 |
| 38 | 264176 | 265141.794784438 | -965.79478443833 |
| 39 | 255198 | 259569.594797295 | -4371.59479729534 |
| 40 | 253353 | 249026.629638681 | 4326.37036131855 |
| 41 | 246057 | 247553.975029949 | -1496.97502994936 |
| 42 | 235372 | 241419.486961528 | -6047.48696152825 |
| 43 | 258556 | 250662.058880839 | 7893.94111916143 |
| 44 | 260993 | 260602.285217713 | 390.714782287367 |
| 45 | 254663 | 261345.786985552 | -6682.78698555156 |
| 46 | 250643 | 247233.412775576 | 3409.58722442359 |
| 47 | 243422 | 242422.728102639 | 999.271897361235 |
| 48 | 247105 | 241055.189302988 | 6049.81069701244 |
| 49 | 248541 | 245647.275102611 | 2893.72489738924 |
| 50 | 245039 | 245597.160985660 | -558.160985659604 |
| 51 | 237080 | 241521.353677640 | -4441.35367764029 |
| 52 | 237085 | 234165.845703755 | 2919.15429624481 |
| 53 | 225554 | 231904.378028072 | -6350.37802807221 |
| 54 | 226839 | 221211.247115566 | 5627.75288443358 |
| 55 | 247934 | 244678.063378676 | 3255.93662132375 |
| 56 | 248333 | 251193.551635975 | -2860.55163597505 |
| 57 | 246969 | 249053.926249261 | -2084.92624926139 |
| 58 | 245098 | 242829.370455777 | 2268.62954422287 |
| 59 | 246263 | 238657.007207882 | 7605.99279211755 |
| 60 | 255765 | 247073.561526891 | 8691.43847310918 |
| 61 | 264319 | 257344.130479984 | 6974.86952001599 |
| 62 | 268347 | 264849.48906655 | 3497.51093345019 |
| 63 | 273046 | 268880.792660529 | 4165.2073394715 |
| 64 | 273963 | 277647.422362721 | -3684.42236272106 |
| 65 | 267430 | 273522.624539900 | -6092.62453989964 |
| 66 | 271993 | 271145.436523605 | 847.563476394978 |
| 67 | 292710 | 299532.470696924 | -6822.47069692361 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 68 | 300263.910995514 | 292070.737512249 | 308457.084478779 |
| 69 | 304587.494867773 | 292634.650189949 | 316540.339545596 |
| 70 | 304485.660721309 | 288600.831398128 | 320370.49004449 |
| 71 | 301920.54441613 | 281989.521567407 | 321851.567264853 |
| 72 | 306306.398597741 | 281656.139222345 | 330956.657973136 |
| 73 | 308715.851960042 | 279191.487271475 | 338240.216648609 |
| 74 | 307277.326256193 | 273020.073332386 | 341534.579179999 |
| 75 | 305162.176131266 | 266114.041729530 | 344210.310533001 |
| 76 | 305045.06106947 | 260820.449910969 | 349269.672227972 |
| 77 | 299896.377818419 | 251135.642822053 | 348657.112814785 |
| 78 | 302424.957021911 | 247792.635856676 | 357057.278187145 |
| 79 | 329483.069476088 | 264467.197943384 | 394498.941008792 |
