| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 102.8 | 102.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 118.72 | 114.782034532604 | 0.544748731207629 | 3.93796546739591 | 1.5016766394609 |
| 3 | 119.01 | 118.574136808636 | 0.705907420710852 | 0.435863191363683 | 0.495975304070011 |
| 4 | 118.61 | 118.900091317516 | 0.695319232732628 | -0.290091317515946 | -0.0681451771864634 |
| 5 | 120.43 | 119.61353873612 | 0.695564438762509 | 0.816461263880088 | 0.00332412911584292 |
| 6 | 111.83 | 115.016064112754 | 0.648418697856438 | -3.18606411275436 | -0.970778696005901 |
| 7 | 116.79 | 115.025431281053 | 0.642950185206062 | 1.7645687189466 | -0.117094027564651 |
| 8 | 131.71 | 124.459379632054 | 0.72280486464318 | 7.25062036794618 | 1.60967624902769 |
| 9 | 120.57 | 123.615059663230 | 0.708074067210482 | -3.04505966323035 | -0.286868722278071 |
| 10 | 117.83 | 119.890720101432 | 0.666215185027466 | -2.06072010143239 | -0.81133923800776 |
| 11 | 130.8 | 125.328282554335 | 0.710897548542552 | 5.47171744566472 | 0.87339948572819 |
| 12 | 107.46 | 115.711606789359 | 0.615255630219125 | -8.2516067893593 | -1.89050218102496 |
| 13 | 112.09 | 116.583058423700 | 0.607490411114577 | -4.49305842369981 | 0.0510342840132408 |
| 14 | 129.47 | 122.765932073876 | 0.619269424941919 | 6.70406792612378 | 1.01190798118922 |
| 15 | 119.72 | 121.910722827836 | 0.588250625414513 | -2.19072282783557 | -0.248991663922578 |
| 16 | 134.81 | 129.065963525772 | 0.727275473894457 | 5.74403647422832 | 1.15623667828975 |
| 17 | 135.8 | 132.212530701997 | 0.762697306458408 | 3.58746929800272 | 0.439502884174452 |
| 18 | 129.27 | 133.346772874874 | 0.76617471395629 | -4.07677287487419 | 0.0680170372315233 |
| 19 | 126.94 | 131.325846629645 | 0.746672121187336 | -4.38584662964456 | -0.510570456047832 |
| 20 | 153.45 | 138.919542601982 | 0.791673885292347 | 14.5304573980182 | 1.25387560409885 |
| 21 | 121.86 | 131.891386598153 | 0.737887976018393 | -10.0313865981526 | -1.43166863199556 |
| 22 | 133.47 | 133.631571263271 | 0.74475163822905 | -0.161571263271032 | 0.183481242284209 |
| 23 | 135.34 | 129.545307906726 | 0.720059102333632 | 5.79469209327393 | -0.883680351298068 |
| 24 | 117.1 | 127.094528915416 | 0.719273405955426 | -9.9945289154161 | -0.580831637602893 |
| 25 | 120.65 | 127.195322353099 | 0.722912945226276 | -6.5453223530992 | -0.115157656244479 |
| 26 | 132.49 | 126.765055045864 | 0.7208614723226 | 5.72494495413641 | -0.209927933061647 |
| 27 | 137.6 | 135.995517894505 | 0.818417505620169 | 1.60448210549522 | 1.49852549191873 |
| 28 | 138.69 | 136.394304406191 | 0.812193234305878 | 2.29569559380864 | -0.0743664294146008 |
| 29 | 125.53 | 128.959181582118 | 0.704504396803709 | -3.42918158211757 | -1.48991514546401 |
| 30 | 133.09 | 132.572836360736 | 0.733146994555963 | 0.51716363926417 | 0.531001088891679 |
| 31 | 129.08 | 135.046368511377 | 0.746179540549839 | -5.96636851137686 | 0.318647598837167 |
| 32 | 145.94 | 131.849628276973 | 0.721148338054773 | 14.0903717230267 | -0.722314456937508 |
| 33 | 129.07 | 135.476291672758 | 0.737955989005935 | -6.40629167275833 | 0.532171132341931 |
| 34 | 139.69 | 137.108438593937 | 0.742318659106817 | 2.58156140606299 | 0.163656817599235 |
| 35 | 142.09 | 136.243780080347 | 0.73758371769658 | 5.84621991965328 | -0.293861994751582 |
| 36 | 137.29 | 142.234627515824 | 0.739370102049005 | -4.94462751582387 | 0.962092945867542 |
| 37 | 127.03 | 138.998604105968 | 0.741899592003961 | -11.9686041059682 | -0.729692373070082 |
| 38 | 137.25 | 136.752444021369 | 0.733227850801848 | 0.497555978630793 | -0.542397067167401 |
| 39 | 156.87 | 146.144420236687 | 0.80286926808999 | 10.7255797633132 | 1.54729566526100 |
| 40 | 150.89 | 147.100710435579 | 0.80455780725181 | 3.78928956442145 | 0.0274038640410396 |
| 41 | 139.14 | 145.785147864767 | 0.78117756767927 | -6.64514786476734 | -0.382662049098098 |
| 42 | 158.3 | 152.507477798969 | 0.837045113527888 | 5.7925222010311 | 1.08207086121228 |
| 43 | 149 | 154.179602808230 | 0.84337304623839 | -5.17960280823045 | 0.152748209699735 |
| 44 | 158.36 | 150.057862866459 | 0.812725931245071 | 8.30213713354111 | -0.909344153241108 |
| 45 | 168.06 | 163.093776383657 | 0.874502032812853 | 4.96622361634313 | 2.23825741702652 |
| 46 | 153.38 | 158.326042372378 | 0.85298069557824 | -4.94604237237773 | -1.03229841976618 |
| 47 | 173.86 | 164.159688482321 | 0.864440664831046 | 9.70031151767864 | 0.910697185743786 |
| 48 | 162.47 | 165.933317744839 | 0.865389121029962 | -3.46331774483859 | 0.166306046825845 |
| 49 | 145.17 | 161.696463300159 | 0.859302748582286 | -16.5264633001589 | -0.932198631889592 |
| 50 | 168.89 | 167.283253040011 | 0.875447901593302 | 1.60674695998922 | 0.85760666420435 |
| 51 | 166.64 | 162.033988696205 | 0.835433678880579 | 4.60601130379523 | -1.10152246408654 |
| 52 | 140.07 | 147.458818288567 | 0.700375631719434 | -7.3888182885675 | -2.76787906597551 |
| 53 | 128.84 | 140.821467372655 | 0.631944763271959 | -11.9814673726553 | -1.32571240749699 |
| 54 | 123.4 | 127.710199795470 | 0.514198440616602 | -4.31019979547042 | -2.50033714604736 |
| 55 | 120.3 | 124.722661006933 | 0.488827737971778 | -4.42266100693287 | -0.639845405386887 |
| 56 | 129.66 | 125.444525422225 | 0.490198216503249 | 4.21547457777513 | 0.0426505253904493 |
| 57 | 118.12 | 118.183707720328 | 0.454524092001214 | -0.0637077203279084 | -1.41857192826512 |
| 58 | 113.91 | 119.142552679375 | 0.456216491416185 | -5.23255267937484 | 0.092236304904101 |
| 59 | 131.09 | 120.647576061941 | 0.458547401336228 | 10.4424239380592 | 0.191717538727549 |
| 60 | 119.14 | 121.038743752205 | 0.458439809244851 | -1.89874375220497 | -0.0123122287647229 |
| 61 | 115.33 | 127.448529087400 | 0.470400364217843 | -12.1185290874005 | 1.08536045198542 |
