Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 29.837 | 29.837 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 29.571 | 29.5904101308721 | -0.0133242641154774 | -0.0194101308721427 | -0.17267886155883 |
3 | 30.167 | 30.1047348709764 | -0.00590938438004926 | 0.0622651290236483 | 0.605236883566329 |
4 | 30.524 | 30.501641415157 | -0.00417903817515478 | 0.0223585848429797 | 0.465018942038387 |
5 | 30.996 | 30.9600424996861 | -0.00214542395880076 | 0.0359575003138614 | 0.533814451603976 |
6 | 31.033 | 31.043723916878 | -0.0017382534660389 | -0.0107239168779781 | 0.0990378455712055 |
7 | 31.198 | 31.1855986527485 | -0.00105329284670538 | 0.01240134725154 | 0.165718174423698 |
8 | 30.937 | 30.9703722757926 | -0.00206851236682920 | -0.0333722757925578 | -0.247137480390282 |
9 | 31.649 | 31.5683254629245 | 0.000760661631391484 | 0.0806745370755246 | 0.692367551695651 |
10 | 33.115 | 32.9669743553856 | 0.00732074457535167 | 0.148025644614448 | 1.61301391693064 |
11 | 34.106 | 34.0269515623201 | 0.0122377149963033 | 0.0790484376798525 | 1.21464204037963 |
12 | 33.926 | 33.9662886000061 | 0.0118987770802128 | -0.0402886000060978 | -0.0841180582279495 |
13 | 33.382 | 33.6425632170615 | 0.0253993900842476 | -0.260563217061456 | -0.454947411146312 |
14 | 32.851 | 32.9963494146691 | 0.0118802614321193 | -0.145349414669093 | -0.682761335064029 |
15 | 32.948 | 32.8862609121358 | 0.0104368688178878 | 0.0617390878641806 | -0.138488356549693 |
16 | 36.112 | 35.6011716934161 | 0.0204899103276316 | 0.510828306583931 | 3.11982486439929 |
17 | 36.113 | 36.1232866813358 | 0.0216534239626073 | -0.0102866813358405 | 0.578398052153586 |
18 | 35.21 | 35.3959929638746 | 0.0197223411603790 | -0.185992963874635 | -0.86342346026361 |
19 | 35.193 | 35.1273930394818 | 0.0189295563011004 | 0.0656069605182098 | -0.332379312508679 |
20 | 34.383 | 34.5168948730419 | 0.0171866649800633 | -0.133894873041891 | -0.72560701664154 |
21 | 35.349 | 35.2129543572521 | 0.0190679567375678 | 0.136045642747878 | 0.782616549966365 |
22 | 37.058 | 36.7644373884433 | 0.0234988685972021 | 0.293562611556678 | 1.76682355991305 |
23 | 38.076 | 37.8789140331341 | 0.0267545980794345 | 0.197085966865948 | 1.25817438197546 |
24 | 36.63 | 36.8881578316953 | 0.026927063691355 | -0.258157831695279 | -1.17198633735714 |
25 | 36.045 | 36.3208491121141 | 0.0360231237032054 | -0.27584911211414 | -0.728019554868669 |
26 | 35.638 | 35.8028441233771 | 0.0303057283601594 | -0.164844123377064 | -0.604216925552623 |
27 | 35.114 | 35.4922457904971 | 0.0269064083517163 | -0.378245790497122 | -0.385678633268819 |
28 | 35.465 | 35.1078416922563 | 0.0251432391818264 | 0.357158307743745 | -0.474070437016384 |
29 | 35.254 | 35.1309489535522 | 0.0251389230540861 | 0.123051046447826 | -0.00234747396731997 |
30 | 35.299 | 35.3786071674434 | 0.0255792414598661 | -0.079607167443401 | 0.256492010881536 |
31 | 35.916 | 35.6643018539543 | 0.0261433222416476 | 0.251698146045702 | 0.299795559696390 |
32 | 36.683 | 36.6809883039277 | 0.0283903192065436 | 0.00201169607229421 | 1.14162873663866 |
33 | 37.288 | 37.3092512456262 | 0.0298066248179012 | -0.0212512456261751 | 0.691426217013282 |
34 | 38.536 | 38.2783273461031 | 0.0321700172215651 | 0.257672653896938 | 1.08289814159513 |
35 | 38.977 | 38.6287451142632 | 0.032820453995601 | 0.348254885736786 | 0.366842156635779 |
36 | 36.407 | 36.9702696155171 | 0.0354773476946675 | -0.563269615517122 | -1.94993671953989 |
37 | 34.955 | 35.4687542868128 | 0.0472402791711909 | -0.513754286812814 | -1.82215152704289 |
38 | 34.951 | 35.07878508354 | 0.0445433039359075 | -0.12778508354 | -0.489271776903668 |
39 | 32.68 | 33.3147926521765 | 0.0296570253826546 | -0.634792652176517 | -2.04713670542767 |
40 | 34.791 | 34.1383983148975 | 0.0333005671247641 | 0.652601685102509 | 0.91392495796003 |
41 | 34.178 | 34.0906078429291 | 0.0331142109332699 | 0.0873921570709282 | -0.093497319211094 |
42 | 35.213 | 35.0898105368989 | 0.0348343563975296 | 0.123189463101124 | 1.11357427407276 |
43 | 34.871 | 34.8665057845926 | 0.0343493886836417 | 0.00449421540735816 | -0.297500737433527 |
44 | 35.299 | 35.3057854497249 | 0.0351771726574544 | -0.00678544972484978 | 0.466664131864935 |
45 | 35.443 | 35.6174933975068 | 0.0357874675447234 | -0.174493397506826 | 0.318735557420587 |
46 | 37.108 | 36.7253405555779 | 0.0381806037267405 | 0.382659444422126 | 1.23593266476961 |
47 | 36.419 | 36.023511746824 | 0.0372140943133252 | 0.395488253175966 | -0.852612568478296 |
48 | 34.471 | 35.0022252219839 | 0.0391053647949012 | -0.531225221983899 | -1.22132885973800 |
49 | 33.868 | 34.3673970309607 | 0.0419179790588139 | -0.499397030960679 | -0.787685747978609 |
50 | 34.385 | 34.1755654701942 | 0.0409393911958756 | 0.209434529805770 | -0.264536020689637 |
51 | 33.643 | 34.3482376603558 | 0.0418350390695929 | -0.705237660355794 | 0.149409793657213 |
52 | 34.627 | 34.0284823411038 | 0.040171274224534 | 0.59851765889616 | -0.415727421471527 |
53 | 32.919 | 33.1735109419128 | 0.0379213262905128 | -0.25451094191284 | -1.03196235268091 |
54 | 35.5 | 34.8910700360098 | 0.0408777505529137 | 0.60892996399022 | 1.93610259308469 |
55 | 36.11 | 35.9834883657279 | 0.0427021565001535 | 0.126511634272121 | 1.21189797710201 |
56 | 37.086 | 36.9988758029568 | 0.0445614216097969 | 0.087124197043184 | 1.12100074569387 |
57 | 37.711 | 37.9519740959720 | 0.0464443933682000 | -0.240974095972049 | 1.04722999082765 |
58 | 40.427 | 39.6105191373181 | 0.0495555495900842 | 0.816480862681941 | 1.85825418146147 |
59 | 39.884 | 39.4368915368361 | 0.0493750269561307 | 0.447108463163941 | -0.257076126273345 |
60 | 38.512 | 39.0578136710353 | 0.0500524703842053 | -0.545813671035337 | -0.494451743531779 |
61 | 38.767 | 39.2268060893307 | 0.0497749784745955 | -0.459806089330737 | 0.138046923122567 |