| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.94869489322508 |
| beta | 0.175963834108314 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 244752 | 231608.737070407 | 13143.2629295928 |
| 14 | 244576 | 245903.325396201 | -1327.32539620149 |
| 15 | 241572 | 243364.053924208 | -1792.05392420804 |
| 16 | 240541 | 242194.826493501 | -1653.82649350128 |
| 17 | 236089 | 237747.699578116 | -1658.69957811607 |
| 18 | 236997 | 238452.877674112 | -1455.87767411213 |
| 19 | 264579 | 264064.067305385 | 514.932694614516 |
| 20 | 270349 | 270969.512147259 | -620.512147259142 |
| 21 | 269645 | 270902.763389931 | -1257.76338993129 |
| 22 | 267037 | 271021.465996317 | -3984.46599631675 |
| 23 | 258113 | 262498.400155499 | -4385.400155499 |
| 24 | 262813 | 259257.607244243 | 3555.39275575674 |
| 25 | 267413 | 267640.15118384 | -227.151183839946 |
| 26 | 267366 | 265802.200089692 | 1563.79991030786 |
| 27 | 264777 | 263606.737937451 | 1170.26206254878 |
| 28 | 258863 | 263586.260963481 | -4723.26096348133 |
| 29 | 254844 | 253916.724584628 | 927.275415371842 |
| 30 | 254868 | 255630.863548618 | -762.863548617752 |
| 31 | 277267 | 282406.233486272 | -5139.23348627193 |
| 32 | 285351 | 281661.788677228 | 3689.2113227715 |
| 33 | 286602 | 283862.58845968 | 2739.41154032008 |
| 34 | 283042 | 286552.969876638 | -3510.96987663762 |
| 35 | 276687 | 277165.589420007 | -478.589420007367 |
| 36 | 277915 | 277811.580782719 | 103.419217281102 |
| 37 | 277128 | 282081.067667089 | -4953.06766708888 |
| 38 | 277103 | 274147.275501131 | 2955.72449886915 |
| 39 | 275037 | 271729.164078105 | 3307.83592189493 |
| 40 | 270150 | 272344.444975788 | -2194.44497578795 |
| 41 | 267140 | 264574.142356461 | 2565.85764353914 |
| 42 | 264993 | 267479.568305000 | -2486.56830500049 |
| 43 | 287259 | 292846.336443541 | -5587.33644354122 |
| 44 | 291186 | 291608.149839614 | -422.14983961446 |
| 45 | 292300 | 288468.751850337 | 3831.24814966315 |
| 46 | 288186 | 290689.352216807 | -2503.35221680679 |
| 47 | 281477 | 281330.075128912 | 146.924871087947 |
| 48 | 282656 | 281752.933756179 | 903.066243821231 |
| 49 | 280190 | 285843.824962593 | -5653.82496259286 |
| 50 | 280408 | 276783.244551763 | 3624.75544823677 |
| 51 | 276836 | 274247.327824989 | 2588.67217501142 |
| 52 | 275216 | 273063.196717606 | 2152.80328239402 |
| 53 | 274352 | 269461.337633015 | 4890.66236698517 |
| 54 | 271311 | 274586.638501698 | -3275.63850169827 |
| 55 | 289802 | 299879.632619517 | -10077.6326195168 |
| 56 | 290726 | 294123.130899924 | -3397.13089992350 |
| 57 | 292300 | 287324.517490892 | 4975.48250910785 |
| 58 | 278506 | 289449.341261054 | -10943.3412610535 |
| 59 | 269826 | 270233.965110454 | -407.965110453952 |
| 60 | 265861 | 267864.81854471 | -2003.81854471005 |
| 61 | 269034 | 265899.390021311 | 3134.60997868871 |
| 62 | 264176 | 264427.39238183 | -251.392381830257 |
| 63 | 255198 | 256578.07084208 | -1380.07084207979 |
| 64 | 253353 | 249372.686347478 | 3980.31365252161 |
| 65 | 246057 | 245949.790026124 | 107.20997387619 |
| 66 | 235372 | 243298.843766005 | -7926.8437660053 |
| 67 | 258556 | 256173.131506351 | 2382.86849364921 |
| 68 | 260993 | 259995.073624063 | 997.926375937037 |
| 69 | 254663 | 256667.881829140 | -2004.88182913963 |
| 70 | 250643 | 249270.767757247 | 1372.23224275277 |
| 71 | 243422 | 242496.607111015 | 925.392888984788 |
| 72 | 247105 | 241117.827937300 | 5987.1720627005 |
| 73 | 248541 | 247958.652836620 | 582.347163380327 |
| 74 | 245039 | 244818.258880736 | 220.741119264363 |
| 75 | 237080 | 238556.846896415 | -1476.84689641459 |
| 76 | 237085 | 232533.710664992 | 4551.28933500778 |
| 77 | 225554 | 230671.340467827 | -5117.34046782652 |
| 78 | 226839 | 222743.733283671 | 4095.26671632929 |
| 79 | 247934 | 248819.419647614 | -885.419647614093 |
| 80 | 248333 | 250936.961365441 | -2603.96136544063 |
| 81 | 246969 | 245160.266243138 | 1808.73375686168 |
| 82 | 245098 | 243276.927837336 | 1821.07216266438 |
| 83 | 246263 | 238711.154690835 | 7551.84530916536 |
| 84 | 255765 | 246658.431531802 | 9106.56846819786 |
| 85 | 264319 | 259583.240083798 | 4735.75991620217 |
| 86 | 268347 | 264185.23828359 | 4161.76171641017 |
| 87 | 273046 | 265592.365082251 | 7453.63491774903 |
| 88 | 273963 | 273840.104030974 | 122.895969025616 |
| 89 | 267430 | 271387.864162814 | -3957.86416281387 |
| 90 | 271993 | 270032.189286958 | 1960.81071304181 |
| 91 | 292710 | 303696.52220238 | -10986.52220238 |
| 92 | 295881 | 300566.414224755 | -4685.41422475548 |
| 93 | 293299 | 296066.680917328 | -2767.68091732817 |
| 94 | 288576 | 291927.205471524 | -3351.20547152415 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 95 | 283461.88276079 | 275236.469642982 | 291687.295878599 |
| 96 | 284760.263821161 | 272429.52429436 | 297091.003347962 |
| 97 | 287916.972938466 | 271595.978121189 | 304237.967755742 |
| 98 | 285852.314594405 | 265795.920499146 | 305908.708689664 |
| 99 | 280557.074910050 | 256977.311817304 | 304136.838002797 |
| 100 | 277528.933204777 | 250236.452854669 | 304821.413554886 |
| 101 | 271010.202892415 | 240329.884257648 | 301690.521527182 |
| 102 | 270727.860029076 | 235942.025856382 | 305513.69420177 |
| 103 | 298107.574925040 | 255284.997019572 | 340930.152830509 |
| 104 | 303992.394017023 | 255614.335110779 | 352370.452923267 |
| 105 | 302952.803588062 | 249934.329966301 | 355971.277209823 |
| 106 | 300745.422996905 | 243823.839403356 | 357667.006590455 |
