Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 0.7461 | 0.7461 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0.7775 | 0.77588552966435 | 0.00248699824707085 | 0.00161447033565104 | 0.618750517320381 |
3 | 0.779 | 0.777441971105364 | 0.00234838284451884 | 0.00155802889463608 | -0.0301541419735241 |
4 | 0.7744 | 0.77284834526496 | 0.00100346893797289 | 0.00155165473504048 | -0.218786311683760 |
5 | 0.7905 | 0.788831108864576 | 0.00432666675330657 | 0.00166889113542430 | 0.463803478791201 |
6 | 0.7719 | 0.770449902061507 | -0.00108911895439476 | 0.00145009793849276 | -0.695521853286597 |
7 | 0.7811 | 0.779430711252594 | 0.00140847943812298 | 0.00166928874740624 | 0.306495432974868 |
8 | 0.7557 | 0.754258136760836 | -0.00532643543819519 | 0.00144186323916443 | -0.806162779114748 |
9 | 0.7637 | 0.762009699569943 | -0.00197400555170535 | 0.00169030043005738 | 0.395850547580657 |
10 | 0.7595 | 0.75794341493708 | -0.00251377008259858 | 0.00155658506292036 | -0.0632609218882115 |
11 | 0.7471 | 0.745558139433298 | -0.00506930764849597 | 0.00154186056670222 | -0.298290731983266 |
12 | 0.7615 | 0.75980486981006 | -5.92090109411145e-05 | 0.00169513018993978 | 0.583489434363387 |
13 | 0.7487 | 0.764341980734446 | 0.00109175681835272 | -0.0156419807344459 | 0.160974038159959 |
14 | 0.7389 | 0.738165422876601 | -0.00565847624077704 | 0.000734577123398706 | -0.690237273279185 |
15 | 0.7337 | 0.732803592450955 | -0.00558139694787426 | 0.000896407549044965 | 0.00894276803303716 |
16 | 0.751 | 0.750150397551323 | 0.000376858375146524 | 0.000849602448677103 | 0.690735297915322 |
17 | 0.7382 | 0.737364550104456 | -0.00304208807414654 | 0.000835449895543552 | -0.39675690407421 |
18 | 0.7159 | 0.715474316239343 | -0.00793700884571833 | 0.000425683760656951 | -0.568267801972448 |
19 | 0.7542 | 0.75266985115413 | 0.00378341533333957 | 0.00153014884586939 | 1.36095496369854 |
20 | 0.7636 | 0.763096088739925 | 0.00550847451125427 | 0.000503911260074544 | 0.200334377177951 |
21 | 0.7433 | 0.742675162217303 | -0.00122517632712695 | 0.000624837782696836 | -0.782041889583183 |
22 | 0.7658 | 0.764649974228784 | 0.00479980422866507 | 0.00115002577121569 | 0.699762163944851 |
23 | 0.7627 | 0.76219708299135 | 0.00291620707060265 | 0.000502917008650255 | -0.218773271919558 |
24 | 0.748 | 0.747263424487018 | -0.00171885219015400 | 0.00073657551298153 | -0.538335725945388 |
25 | 0.7692 | 0.772678645232173 | 0.00522571134906362 | -0.00347864523217256 | 0.882313761775195 |
26 | 0.785 | 0.784506699610825 | 0.00688835281345153 | 0.00049330038917517 | 0.179755082805423 |
27 | 0.7913 | 0.791127271900637 | 0.00681886162929191 | 0.000172728099362487 | -0.00807049813824836 |
28 | 0.772 | 0.771777523749097 | 2.43195478266522e-05 | 0.000222476250903224 | -0.787872467840286 |
29 | 0.788 | 0.786836552218738 | 0.0039262809713465 | 0.00116344778126180 | 0.452877667940988 |
30 | 0.807 | 0.807221883848345 | 0.00819724131223787 | -0.000221883848344645 | 0.495875188494861 |
31 | 0.8268 | 0.82571431490195 | 0.0108685816338829 | 0.00108568509805057 | 0.310206681448403 |
32 | 0.8244 | 0.824106957592099 | 0.00763144335900089 | 0.000293042407901490 | -0.375945130869039 |
33 | 0.8487 | 0.848422140214929 | 0.0119603980786351 | 0.000277859785071127 | 0.502769422439874 |
34 | 0.8572 | 0.856513286187096 | 0.0109564237563704 | 0.000686713812903671 | -0.116606089115199 |
35 | 0.8214 | 0.821587886566007 | -0.0009494369835858 | -0.000187886566006950 | -1.38283996096273 |
36 | 0.8827 | 0.881544447278735 | 0.0148500124874981 | 0.00115555272126502 | 1.83502479584584 |
37 | 0.9216 | 0.922838133023247 | 0.0216506028565576 | -0.00123813302324743 | 0.837243790038453 |
38 | 0.8865 | 0.887559513257391 | 0.0071961176569999 | -0.00105951325739133 | -1.59852617972725 |
39 | 0.8816 | 0.881919128470348 | 0.00386926739285232 | -0.000319128470347547 | -0.386692495514300 |
40 | 0.8884 | 0.88909726231507 | 0.00472761964790711 | -0.00069726231506996 | 0.0995574782171932 |
41 | 0.9466 | 0.94565927689411 | 0.0181689828176635 | 0.000940723105890126 | 1.56027693941272 |
42 | 0.918 | 0.920371960717269 | 0.00690157152643476 | -0.00237196071726866 | -1.30830420667872 |
43 | 0.9337 | 0.932936243965948 | 0.00836973975485343 | 0.00076375603405182 | 0.170497684733044 |
44 | 0.9559 | 0.956552067427108 | 0.0123225345743226 | -0.00065206742710797 | 0.45906983555905 |
45 | 0.9626 | 0.963564762213018 | 0.0109458686324665 | -0.00096476221301819 | -0.159889713638003 |
46 | 0.9434 | 0.943137313061734 | 0.00281168721901223 | 0.000262686938265963 | -0.944749038281431 |
47 | 0.8639 | 0.867100060639984 | -0.0176328114461369 | -0.00320006063998362 | -2.37460735984882 |
48 | 0.7996 | 0.80009862361249 | -0.0304276091756617 | -0.000498623612489193 | -1.48610844652289 |
49 | 0.668 | 0.671794007468285 | -0.0556509632105046 | -0.00379400746828511 | -3.05519372172811 |
50 | 0.6572 | 0.656387762610567 | -0.0453851731320569 | 0.000812237389433222 | 1.14963321012992 |
51 | 0.6928 | 0.690077083944275 | -0.0249130877662995 | 0.00272291605572539 | 2.38070923924700 |
52 | 0.6438 | 0.645467305163713 | -0.0300186687795213 | -0.00166730516371247 | -0.592277279318708 |
53 | 0.6454 | 0.641793879158155 | -0.0231919206823116 | 0.0036061208418452 | 0.792502912123001 |
54 | 0.6873 | 0.687254541144807 | -0.00540415876478761 | 4.54588551929221e-05 | 2.06550810899139 |
55 | 0.7265 | 0.724460219109088 | 0.00563555073237056 | 0.00203978089091179 | 1.28207131466889 |
56 | 0.7912 | 0.789893763395814 | 0.0211283461425067 | 0.00130623660418556 | 1.79932930521796 |
57 | 0.8114 | 0.811517185082049 | 0.0212566133459178 | -0.000117185082048608 | 0.0148974212061835 |
58 | 0.8281 | 0.825738972239642 | 0.0194339553594667 | 0.00236102776035813 | -0.211694998477516 |
59 | 0.8393 | 0.84095389170543 | 0.0183407761174926 | -0.00165389170542903 | -0.126972340707844 |