| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 153.4 | 153.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 145 | 145.876191167459 | -7.44134377868622 | -0.041232530240796 | -0.557950534988849 |
| 3 | 137.7 | 137.791193719566 | -7.99195450904879 | -0.0398729065246219 | -0.0397493044432643 |
| 4 | 148.3 | 147.003485215649 | 6.86854273510676 | -0.0565574451302474 | 1.05522810977596 |
| 5 | 152.2 | 152.373635982363 | 5.57296841526736 | -0.0563948021853457 | -0.0916881440644917 |
| 6 | 169.4 | 168.620760968549 | 14.8031708653358 | -0.0559567353371608 | 0.653207893605105 |
| 7 | 168.6 | 169.727833670048 | 2.96004521014379 | -0.0562167320232124 | -0.838115427451734 |
| 8 | 161.1 | 161.993016572943 | -6.28773277779368 | -0.0562398245501543 | -0.654446774325278 |
| 9 | 174.1 | 172.817389150323 | 8.50894960012367 | -0.0562533969236409 | 1.04713164279455 |
| 10 | 179 | 179.220977744091 | 6.68846225306813 | -0.0562526151651217 | -0.128832251264188 |
| 11 | 190.6 | 190.311807905370 | 10.4951527359973 | -0.0562528041658198 | 0.269391877582786 |
| 12 | 190 | 190.836360951728 | 1.87365858787821 | -0.0562529569762432 | -0.610125910298412 |
| 13 | 181.6 | 182.938653778518 | -6.48111459570032 | -0.582679721214916 | -0.627341256815093 |
| 14 | 174.8 | 174.860704709527 | -7.70792945736486 | 0.0323240020032319 | -0.0840417131388031 |
| 15 | 180.5 | 179.560241812516 | 3.07890274373382 | -0.00963164228381908 | 0.749056934503394 |
| 16 | 196.8 | 195.810782941204 | 14.4475557326564 | -0.0337871215571341 | 0.80214830106102 |
| 17 | 193.8 | 195.021653927182 | 1.27646422051838 | -0.0299470804210284 | -0.93208399799127 |
| 18 | 197 | 196.976799209048 | 1.86335423195363 | -0.0299028693092647 | 0.0415327406762524 |
| 19 | 216.3 | 215.060206884967 | 15.8892024854284 | -0.0293202242738261 | 0.992580120109795 |
| 20 | 221.4 | 222.120174399738 | 8.25459899185731 | -0.0293643167277498 | -0.540285629075005 |
| 21 | 217.9 | 218.832431119834 | -1.72595515304180 | -0.0293498305701368 | -0.706303868245136 |
| 22 | 229.7 | 228.813399308401 | 8.39691627123799 | -0.0293580489453955 | 0.716375379228054 |
| 23 | 227.4 | 228.139096759735 | 0.5531101339685 | -0.0293571517537865 | -0.555090484024443 |
| 24 | 204.2 | 206.004465437042 | -19.0647902955236 | -0.0293577002260322 | -1.38831960586255 |
| 25 | 196.6 | 195.003051588083 | -12.1433736585019 | 0.970670268322744 | 0.509471571765212 |
| 26 | 198.8 | 197.797267133778 | -0.289875233886651 | 0.0543044444348364 | 0.821434943482309 |
| 27 | 207.5 | 206.756990032806 | 7.74032777615458 | 0.0311256602890603 | 0.560382308394789 |
| 28 | 190.7 | 192.361294330894 | -11.3746431385245 | 0.0612299935782609 | -1.34975235316270 |
| 29 | 201.6 | 200.051105827534 | 5.10657504734081 | 0.0576686636780732 | 1.16633561543262 |
| 30 | 210.5 | 210.058624294885 | 9.34459482759583 | 0.0579052840527004 | 0.299914624446646 |
| 31 | 223.5 | 223.148920841059 | 12.5835579727666 | 0.0580050070096113 | 0.22921475523822 |
| 32 | 223.8 | 224.612106493327 | 2.96782973491725 | 0.0579638471243436 | -0.680485867963241 |
| 33 | 231.2 | 230.883561117611 | 5.82444384379485 | 0.057960774111596 | 0.202156870978219 |
| 34 | 244 | 243.417116540052 | 11.6257533971697 | 0.0579572833314285 | 0.410547082700231 |
| 35 | 234.7 | 236.122394870615 | -4.73462167408807 | 0.0579586702973887 | -1.15779104661693 |
| 36 | 250.2 | 248.781167415319 | 10.3053008511142 | 0.0579589819436783 | 1.06434525893544 |
| 37 | 265.7 | 265.461227272232 | 15.7876099604038 | -0.257289047453376 | 0.399569953009538 |
| 38 | 287.6 | 287.139981494835 | 20.5494542354446 | 0.067938579354525 | 0.331845793567933 |
| 39 | 283.3 | 284.943382235415 | 0.818325995602724 | 0.113214930425090 | -1.38090746670211 |
| 40 | 295.4 | 294.607251802669 | 8.45878086852166 | 0.103655639860337 | 0.539754905519306 |
| 41 | 312.3 | 311.535112148441 | 15.7806327081183 | 0.102398824786656 | 0.518150260593486 |
| 42 | 333.8 | 333.234286690528 | 20.8985525614038 | 0.102625818350377 | 0.362183457773561 |
| 43 | 347.7 | 348.071737438764 | 15.6574577350208 | 0.102497631958868 | -0.370901557770521 |
| 44 | 383.2 | 381.692019214542 | 31.1898066896142 | 0.102550447270045 | 1.09919329085371 |
| 45 | 407.1 | 407.424435919135 | 26.470850776141 | 0.102554479910365 | -0.333951078366074 |
| 46 | 413.6 | 414.977574563639 | 10.1128703532823 | 0.102562299012752 | -1.15762158183954 |
| 47 | 362.7 | 367.132139880492 | -40.0031875070762 | 0.102565674062501 | -3.54661325487644 |
| 48 | 321.9 | 322.184307513508 | -44.2787805510905 | 0.102565603683433 | -0.302575174699811 |
| 49 | 239.4 | 244.69135337561 | -72.874940188163 | -2.70385583171962 | -2.07189404251916 |
| 50 | 191 | 189.435820702217 | -58.4622989634655 | 0.356139455252289 | 1.00769419349876 |
| 51 | 159.7 | 157.346170983006 | -35.5976922663954 | 0.312599188287056 | 1.60325199710515 |
| 52 | 163.4 | 160.129604881931 | -2.43941747722193 | 0.278187741466031 | 2.34314407498757 |
| 53 | 157.6 | 157.348499499636 | -2.73482896804113 | 0.278229801234249 | -0.0209055951065479 |
| 54 | 166.2 | 165.100884909403 | 6.33368066687241 | 0.278563417531538 | 0.641758095721906 |
| 55 | 176.7 | 176.059491443347 | 10.3328854862313 | 0.278644548138784 | 0.28301557516907 |
| 56 | 198.3 | 197.177490856222 | 19.6587057997122 | 0.278670850872636 | 0.659969664214074 |
| 57 | 226.2 | 225.262086142016 | 26.9444973835265 | 0.278665686572093 | 0.515600908638063 |
| 58 | 216.2 | 218.554304103791 | -2.15433671116012 | 0.278677223600816 | -2.05926633270578 |
| 59 | 235.9 | 234.226556592164 | 13.2601648704251 | 0.278676362559669 | 1.09085347013727 |
| 60 | 226.9 | 228.135388232967 | -3.47277104151221 | 0.278676134099501 | -1.18415643272776 |
