Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[21])
9	105.87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	105.66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	106.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	107.22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	107.33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	107.11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	108.86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	107.72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	107.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	108.38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	107.72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	108.41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	109.9	108.41	106.8239	109.9961	0.0328	0.5	0.9997	0.5
23	111.45	108.41	106.1669	110.6531	0.004	0.0965	0.9253	0.5
24	112.18	108.41	105.6627	111.1573	0.0036	0.015	0.9572	0.5
25	113.34	108.41	105.2377	111.5823	0.0012	0.0099	0.7689	0.5
26	113.46	108.41	104.8633	111.9567	0.0026	0.0032	0.7247	0.5
27	114.06	108.41	104.5248	112.2952	0.0022	0.0054	0.744	0.5
28	115.54	108.41	104.2135	112.6065	4e-04	0.0042	0.4168	0.5
29	116.39	108.41	103.9237	112.8963	2e-04	9e-04	0.6185	0.5
30	115.94	108.41	103.6516	113.1684	0.001	5e-04	0.5864	0.5
31	116.97	108.41	103.3942	113.4258	4e-04	0.0016	0.5047	0.5
32	115.94	108.41	103.1494	113.6706	0.0025	7e-04	0.6014	0.5
33	115.91	108.41	102.9154	113.9046	0.0037	0.0036	0.5	0.5
34	116.43	108.41	102.6911	114.1289	0.003	0.0051	0.3048	0.5
35	116.26	108.41	102.4752	114.3448	0.0048	0.004	0.1577	0.5
36	116.35	108.41	102.2669	114.5531	0.0056	0.0061	0.1145	0.5
37	117.9	108.41	102.0654	114.7546	0.0017	0.0071	0.0639	0.5
38	117.7	108.41	101.8702	114.9498	0.0027	0.0022	0.0651	0.5
39	117.53	108.41	101.6806	115.1394	0.004	0.0034	0.0499	0.5
40	117.86	108.41	101.4962	115.3238	0.0037	0.0049	0.0216	0.5
41	117.65	108.41	101.3166	115.5034	0.0053	0.0045	0.0137	0.5
42	116.51	108.41	101.1414	115.6786	0.0145	0.0064	0.0212	0.5
43	115.93	108.41	100.9703	115.8497	0.0238	0.0164	0.0121	0.5
44	115.31	108.41	100.8031	116.0169	0.0377	0.0263	0.0262	0.5
45	115	108.41	100.6395	116.1805	0.0482	0.0409	0.0293	0.5

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
22	0.0075	0.0137	0	2.2201	0	0
23	0.0106	0.028	0.0209	9.2416	5.7309	2.3939
24	0.0129	0.0348	0.0255	14.2129	8.5582	2.9254
25	0.0149	0.0455	0.0305	24.3049	12.4949	3.5348
26	0.0167	0.0466	0.0337	25.5025	15.0964	3.8854
27	0.0183	0.0521	0.0368	31.9225	17.9008	4.2309
28	0.0197	0.0658	0.0409	50.8369	22.6059	4.7546
29	0.0211	0.0736	0.045	63.6804	27.7402	5.2669
30	0.0224	0.0695	0.0477	56.7009	30.9581	5.564
31	0.0236	0.079	0.0509	73.2736	35.1896	5.9321
32	0.0248	0.0695	0.0525	56.7009	37.1452	6.0947
33	0.0259	0.0692	0.0539	56.25	38.7373	6.2239
34	0.0269	0.074	0.0555	64.3204	40.7052	6.3801
35	0.0279	0.0724	0.0567	61.6225	42.1993	6.4961
36	0.0289	0.0732	0.0578	63.0436	43.5889	6.6022
37	0.0299	0.0875	0.0596	90.0601	46.4934	6.8186
38	0.0308	0.0857	0.0612	86.3041	48.8352	6.9882
39	0.0317	0.0841	0.0625	83.1744	50.7429	7.1234
40	0.0325	0.0872	0.0638	89.3025	52.7724	7.2645
41	0.0334	0.0852	0.0648	85.3776	54.4026	7.3758
42	0.0342	0.0747	0.0653	65.61	54.9363	7.4119
43	0.035	0.0694	0.0655	56.5504	55.0097	7.4169
44	0.0358	0.0636	0.0654	47.61	54.6879	7.3951
45	0.0366	0.0608	0.0652	43.4281	54.2188	7.3633