Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[330])
318	46.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
319	50.51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
320	47.58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
321	48.05	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
322	46.84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
323	47.67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
324	49.16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
325	55.54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
326	55.82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
327	58.22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
328	56.19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
329	57.77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
330	63.19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
331	54.76	63.8276	54.1244	73.5308	0.0335	0.5512	0.9964	0.5512
332	55.74	65.273	50.5816	79.9644	0.1017	0.9196	0.9909	0.6095
333	62.54	65.195	46.3708	84.0192	0.3911	0.8376	0.9629	0.5827
334	61.39	64.2163	41.4832	86.9494	0.4037	0.5575	0.933	0.5353
335	69.6	63.427	37.9517	88.9023	0.3174	0.5623	0.8873	0.5073
336	79.23	63.9526	36.2957	91.6095	0.1395	0.3445	0.8528	0.5215
337	80	64.839	35.1773	94.5008	0.1582	0.1708	0.7305	0.5434
338	93.68	65.0392	33.1108	96.9676	0.0394	0.1792	0.7143	0.5452
339	107.63	64.3268	30.152	98.5015	0.0065	0.0461	0.6369	0.526
340	100.18	63.7552	27.621	99.8893	0.0241	0.0087	0.6592	0.5122
341	97.3	63.9732	26.2205	101.7259	0.0418	0.0301	0.6263	0.5162
342	90.45	64.6347	25.3223	103.9471	0.099	0.0517	0.5287	0.5287
343	80.64	64.8428	23.8635	105.822	0.225	0.1103	0.6852	0.5315
344	80.58	64.4163	21.7145	107.118	0.2291	0.2282	0.6548	0.5224
345	75.82	63.9551	19.6797	108.2305	0.2997	0.2309	0.525	0.5135
346	85.59	64.0418	18.3791	109.7044	0.1775	0.3066	0.5453	0.5146
347	89.35	64.4901	17.505	111.4752	0.1499	0.1894	0.4156	0.5216
348	89.42	64.7028	16.3337	113.0719	0.1583	0.159	0.278	0.5244
349	104.73	64.4452	14.6522	114.2382	0.0564	0.1628	0.2702	0.5197
350	95.32	64.1006	12.9552	115.2459	0.1158	0.0597	0.1285	0.5139
351	89.27	64.1043	11.7262	116.4823	0.1732	0.1214	0.0517	0.5136
352	90.44	64.4067	10.849	117.9644	0.1704	0.1814	0.0952	0.5178
353	86.97	64.5935	9.8286	119.3585	0.2116	0.1775	0.1209	0.52
354	79.98	64.4502	8.4488	120.4516	0.2934	0.2153	0.1814	0.5176
355	81.22	64.1971	6.9974	121.3969	0.2798	0.2943	0.2866	0.5138
356	87.35	64.1619	5.8408	122.483	0.2179	0.2832	0.2906	0.513
357	83.64	64.3587	4.9603	123.7571	0.2623	0.224	0.3526	0.5154
358	82.22	64.5138	4.0283	124.9993	0.2831	0.2677	0.2473	0.5171

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
331	0.0776	-0.1421	0	82.221	0	0
332	0.1148	-0.146	0.1441	90.8779	86.5494	9.3032
333	0.1473	-0.0407	0.1096	7.049	60.0493	7.7491
334	0.1806	-0.044	0.0932	7.9878	47.0339	6.8581
335	0.2049	0.0973	0.094	38.1056	45.2483	6.7267
336	0.2206	0.2389	0.1182	233.3994	76.6068	8.7525
337	0.2334	0.2338	0.1347	229.8544	98.4993	9.9247
338	0.2505	0.4404	0.1729	820.2947	188.7237	13.7377
339	0.2711	0.6732	0.2285	1875.1691	376.1065	19.3935
340	0.2892	0.5713	0.2628	1326.7683	471.1727	21.7065
341	0.3011	0.5209	0.2862	1110.6756	529.3093	23.0067
342	0.3103	0.3994	0.2957	666.43	540.7361	23.2537
343	0.3224	0.2436	0.2917	249.5519	518.3373	22.767
344	0.3382	0.2509	0.2888	261.2662	499.9751	22.3601
345	0.3532	0.1855	0.2819	140.7763	476.0285	21.8181
346	0.3638	0.3365	0.2853	464.3265	475.2971	21.8013
347	0.3717	0.3855	0.2912	618.0141	483.6922	21.993
348	0.3814	0.382	0.2962	610.9404	490.7616	22.1531
349	0.3942	0.6251	0.3135	1622.8659	550.346	23.4595
350	0.4071	0.487	0.3222	974.6533	571.5614	23.9073
351	0.4169	0.3926	0.3256	633.3132	574.5019	23.9688
352	0.4243	0.4042	0.3291	677.7327	579.1942	24.0665
353	0.4326	0.3464	0.3299	500.7056	575.7817	23.9955
354	0.4433	0.241	0.3262	241.1746	561.8397	23.7032
355	0.4546	0.2652	0.3237	289.7777	550.9572	23.4725
356	0.4638	0.3614	0.3252	537.6879	550.4469	23.4616
357	0.4709	0.2996	0.3242	371.7687	543.8292	23.3201
358	0.4783	0.2745	0.3225	313.5099	535.6035	23.1431