| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | -0.2903 | 0.2668 | 0.0254 | 0.7709 |
| (p-val) | (0.2163 ) | (0.0412 ) | (0.7074 ) | (8e-04 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | -0.3276 | 0.2831 | 0 | 0.8127 |
| (p-val) | (0.0266 ) | (0.0025 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.254999839094220 |
| 22.4319591650934 |
| 8.48842388782407 |
| 31.3463855898503 |
| 16.4307531043167 |
| 5.83896338062774 |
| -13.5110600811090 |
| -4.38191112466065 |
| -4.64342627735144 |
| -2.39790452591552 |
| -9.62528652477005 |
| 0.570943887624659 |
| -4.32575439695619 |
| -0.182017814293898 |
| -1.87574824595658 |
| -10.2057603789681 |
| -0.230847339674417 |
| -6.72183403274037 |
| -0.96877058596556 |
| -13.2888545772784 |
| -0.821710152105348 |
| -2.09225227224809 |
| 2.05576265908427 |
| -1.95834748421589 |
| -2.87374391592999 |
| -2.70981140864819 |
| -4.91585677432382 |
| -0.539200028910704 |
| -0.528445392880883 |
| 5.66770512150502 |
| 19.5912064655249 |
| 16.6782556422981 |
| -0.324432057346130 |
| 0.62863975961177 |
| 1.67963822390779 |
| 0.371340804566055 |
| -12.8775776267713 |
| 11.4296276252202 |
| -11.0611990322411 |
| 0.00346328867632788 |
| 2.18399002373965 |
| -1.81094647485137 |
| 7.2296368391813 |
| -6.10745133373262 |
| -8.97418755942159 |
| -1.52360381634567 |
| -11.3245326707611 |
| -3.22215742294171 |
| 0.171025586455974 |
| -13.7240838626719 |
| 1.68089407031351 |
| -0.94630970938392 |
| -0.673915406733183 |
| 1.61835126513499 |
| -3.57605895217995 |
| -0.0575932817974939 |
| -0.440928918848127 |
| 0.992017595010534 |
| -3.56777889753950 |
| 10.7375768084468 |
| -6.62119014859055 |
| 13.6618109739571 |
| -5.87101523414179 |
| 2.14938460627729 |
| -1.65327811554391 |
| -0.488459649838376 |
| -3.18696521674349 |
| 3.38241859572378 |
| -2.81052544916736 |
| -0.812910071103062 |
| -0.600537523143146 |
| 1.35092036766434 |
| 1.10239545083985 |
| 1.13316315085206 |
| -0.675343428807992 |
| -3.99146903039653 |
| 1.39269826726442 |
| -0.90092720976628 |
| -0.626701935247837 |
| 1.82936219704021 |
| -2.80759897669694 |
| 2.15856170667811 |
| 1.57510009493382 |
| -2.92835941879108 |
| 5.35302577308198 |
| 3.17663069263514 |
| -4.17017197516196 |
| 1.99673634478671 |
| 0.498077315788521 |
| 3.2825787596509 |
| 0.513265327558997 |
| -1.36585663352099 |
| 1.42035493594449 |
| 0.308147398087385 |
| -1.40531621594590 |
| 1.49082091133204 |
| -0.58837224346479 |
| 2.21474580717279 |
| -0.752160866253178 |
| -0.637666510531062 |
| -0.698260228519075 |
| 1.00930004135398 |
| -0.0991070280523445 |
| -5.14956559619407 |
| 1.16743922929851 |
| 1.23142783859339 |
| -1.27752055255331 |
| -7.39744426593012 |
| 24.0037804465778 |
| 73.3978643036192 |
| -17.0433483598236 |
| -10.6407324782818 |
| -5.24835613292333 |
| 1.00883588565796 |
| -7.7930224578501 |
| -8.65869573424078 |
| -14.8149852556135 |
| 7.81840437562465 |
| 2.65222440129133 |
| -0.647340822637602 |
| -3.69233717574662 |
| -5.88508052671949 |
| -2.51422788586342 |
| -6.90087179738498 |
| -5.51390227135977 |
| 2.75612305239525 |
| -2.64823208977958 |
| -7.93323676440247 |
| 8.03325803078184 |
| 4.00373005119076 |
| -14.0223031447819 |
| 2.41932644884906 |
| 10.3738756815349 |
| -3.63274781939742 |
| -6.22829796179849 |
| 10.2774044702253 |
| -5.76086113841342 |
| 0.529405854740503 |
| 5.64083374504918 |
| -6.40265452447846 |
| 2.97145576456347 |
| 0.460132043966041 |
| 3.6499869957272 |
| 1.13728684737345 |
| 2.95590401278167 |
| 6.67892004013754 |
| -5.01859228943829 |
| 8.64429877520325 |
| 0.465446667362301 |
| -0.560051354013069 |
| 4.8738848077146 |
| -7.70236535273841 |
| -4.48757050657264 |
| -3.36655882488708 |
| -10.5615123520445 |
| 9.40929040052248 |
| -4.51199964639466 |
| 7.13394406654271 |
| -11.0588878377847 |
| 4.54713641036335 |
| 3.4727849377918 |
| 3.10971865952314 |
| 5.03617525011884 |
| -5.5224494609264 |
| 1.11979949631387 |
| 0.103175300488147 |
| -8.3123529619366 |
| 3.41207082967645 |
| -0.0913309850903374 |
| 3.10947484518960 |
| -9.43880474905006 |
| 7.33708759080986 |
| -7.29690796370653 |
| 2.41419798633649 |
| -7.21410758532448 |
| -3.84827202332542 |
| -0.924185322709377 |
| 3.49974864183110 |
| -4.53162555512853 |
| -2.55673855178179 |
| 5.72239639604123 |
| 0.201539059408447 |
| -6.29990285494819 |
| 0.658831637876347 |
| 5.21044964047462 |
| -5.47131995573022 |
| 4.669422609305 |
| -5.90409140906638 |
| -4.81211872408119 |
| -2.02477104940002 |
| -7.71856688045722 |
| 1.71213817310903 |
| -0.494466601578836 |
| 11.0101336050544 |
| -4.19573686002042 |
| 2.38720522299124 |
| 1.77400696597917 |
| 1.18084487092162 |
| 0.115962558837481 |
| -5.05502919303578 |
| 1.3549066876015 |
| -7.80519635946473 |
| 5.86148679398352 |
| 2.80288446242383 |
| 3.92184270041065 |
| -2.97155245575783 |
| -0.591913069507683 |
| 0.0493835548839172 |
| 2.26700538036749 |
| 5.1129096245939 |
| 71.6779060930572 |
| 78.4842263418149 |
| -49.6216172308631 |
| 4.53492158396637 |
| -2.83881740520457 |
| -6.61345814434947 |
| 2.9620228701109 |
| -15.6324006306163 |
| -5.48245600735038 |
| 2.50348712788991 |
| -0.547677980896651 |
| 0.089588994507892 |
| -2.98666970367879 |
| 4.03012614950143 |
| -7.03593057019492 |
| -9.83165168817243 |
| 0.082603741685773 |
| -4.10915839553894 |
| -14.4381632324365 |
| 9.13395706651778 |
| -5.83706702731951 |
| 1.13687335117464 |
| -8.80988353119693 |
| 4.49732810453395 |
| -7.16807660046874 |
| 5.21324959008388 |
| -7.86574850569718 |
| 5.3896132292204 |
| -8.44005784869063 |
| 6.98699339274236 |
| -3.78989137616418 |
| 3.83316463307244 |
| 17.2353073687647 |
| 30.1941905689489 |
| 4.0429685831125 |
| 24.3341333654459 |
| 3.79350558313359 |
| -2.07653575627290 |
| -8.55656690022442 |
| -19.0161709248054 |
| 0.51076949159301 |
| -11.0420299816847 |
| -6.26308903035226 |
| -0.304817714625699 |
| 8.71519507527108 |
| -10.6432589448967 |
| -3.51198394753857 |
| -7.0223128642038 |
| 3.59201097571020 |
| -7.24377623420821 |
| -4.12662549500368 |
| -9.13153341869616 |
| 3.95448295599766 |
| -3.92274329264029 |
| 1.73683486695643 |
| -1.34426605242237 |
| 6.01810308301884 |
| -4.03107698390414 |
| 4.45433041803705 |
| -9.84720403070321 |
| 4.59456284541989 |
| -0.870304656100984 |
| -2.38196981887972 |
| 9.50934761306826 |
| -18.3335741237702 |
| 8.63832372936247 |
| 16.5733848323495 |
| 6.6285220869159 |
| -10.7074793143504 |
| -2.06927970568887 |
| -4.30185257639516 |
| -6.80308899070047 |
| 5.38020455302103 |
| -1.10923286304018 |
| -9.84876422483933 |
| 2.35939559544693 |
| -7.05095932093792 |
| 1.04138421349944 |
| 1.52763905341652 |
| -0.513961678924147 |
| -1.24827048781736 |
| -6.92985985249669 |
| 0.344841816875828 |
| 6.8191645989325 |
| -8.42108577452404 |
| -1.81630737900798 |
| -0.756283541847381 |
| 0.484156868238983 |
| -2.67346792333416 |
| -5.9026415734678 |
| 5.41887486133697 |
| -0.43995039193112 |
| -8.49340295481375 |
| 15.3965838085419 |
| -2.67682314713255 |
| -7.12072796741182 |
| 6.03870055644524 |
| -6.46442221965043 |
| 1.93511147939154 |
| -5.44253386004891 |
| 4.10865883397503 |
| -5.94929346164577 |
| 19.2667520816755 |
| -16.5301888092306 |
| 7.28203173165411 |
| 3.73916675853980 |
| -7.85468628859752 |
| 1.37014389955289 |
| 1.77304625226162 |
| -2.94870949202556 |
| 1.07385936190718 |
| -9.70530090925843 |
| 0.264771017551993 |
| 10.5735938764548 |
| -2.19779779987260 |
| -3.85651070556673 |
| 8.8300821162079 |
| -6.08351849470188 |
| -5.64313118255961 |
| -5.53805464550231 |
| 16.8332320492933 |
| -6.90371041075633 |
| 1.71293184398468 |
| -5.16217198919259 |
| -3.10090218561851 |
| 1.30797461935060 |
| 27.9742776052329 |
| -24.3288098893009 |
| 15.2118504993314 |
| 15.5901488769643 |
| 2.02380488267653 |
| 3.384926182708 |
| -11.2461179802918 |
| 18.5414705615909 |
| -11.5305501167771 |
| 4.13259590400349 |
| -18.0283962985412 |
| 3.71625167708868 |
| -0.739661045093044 |
| -3.37774192252505 |
| 13.8478240145191 |
| -6.33330862787614 |
| 7.08016552623405 |
| -22.986270650001 |
| 10.2772361566453 |
| 1.11229753328581 |
| -1.34567404518049 |
| -4.24061525181133 |
| 4.75973021928405 |
