Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 102.86 | 102.86 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 102.55 | 102.565682179366 | -0.0241017981932413 | -0.0156821793657601 | -0.418447443081315 |
3 | 102.28 | 102.295654255638 | -0.0590197890480614 | -0.0156542556376815 | -0.547626616947499 |
4 | 102.26 | 102.275657863465 | -0.0517706878412844 | -0.0156578634650731 | 0.0846528878937142 |
5 | 102.57 | 102.585684161599 | 0.0255774064202126 | -0.0156841615986339 | 0.77123147447451 |
6 | 103.08 | 103.095711249913 | 0.137359171386002 | -0.0157112499134435 | 1.02151188726503 |
7 | 102.76 | 102.775691829632 | 0.0272945100648635 | -0.0156918296321747 | -0.958216547410568 |
8 | 102.51 | 102.525682955471 | -0.041008229438491 | -0.0156829554710754 | -0.578790293818229 |
9 | 102.87 | 102.885692586588 | 0.0590525893512763 | -0.0156925865878397 | 0.835233604496448 |
10 | 103.14 | 103.155696379665 | 0.112068676529851 | -0.0156963796646531 | 0.438841052469211 |
11 | 103.12 | 103.135694604142 | 0.0787435722540339 | -0.0156946041417716 | -0.274561944132307 |
12 | 103.16 | 103.175694215 | 0.068945530657078 | -0.0156942149998998 | -0.0805149633735772 |
13 | 102.48 | 102.575864924310 | -0.0942567935268288 | -0.0958649243103273 | -1.61460401257669 |
14 | 102.57 | 102.559541291563 | -0.0754164330562679 | 0.0104587084371704 | 0.135582455788541 |
15 | 102.88 | 102.869974655270 | 0.0225296918861205 | 0.0100253447304229 | 0.80029042560907 |
16 | 102.63 | 102.619746024090 | -0.0466648981590681 | 0.0102539759095662 | -0.565977416656666 |
17 | 102.38 | 102.369618730044 | -0.0982647580710872 | 0.0103812699560964 | -0.422313943435951 |
18 | 101.69 | 101.679342265555 | -0.248385199123064 | 0.0106577344450224 | -1.22905562572630 |
19 | 101.96 | 101.949523026306 | -0.116894197066505 | 0.0104769736944682 | 1.07673397188970 |
20 | 102.19 | 102.179613308323 | -0.0289105295560245 | 0.0103866916769103 | 0.720542140046447 |
21 | 101.87 | 101.859556763784 | -0.102736662499294 | 0.0104432362158988 | -0.604633885219041 |
22 | 101.6 | 101.589532512824 | -0.145156837857006 | 0.0104674871757102 | -0.347431163266818 |
23 | 101.63 | 101.619551467726 | -0.100735446744689 | 0.0104485322743415 | 0.363828098679409 |
24 | 101.22 | 101.209526487745 | -0.179167124240111 | 0.0104735122548333 | -0.642391691130274 |
25 | 101.21 | 101.278359709834 | -0.117221366123082 | -0.068359709833807 | 0.556644237990322 |
26 | 101.49 | 101.479211673508 | -0.0390324828583465 | 0.0107883264921917 | 0.594617454136453 |
27 | 101.64 | 101.629353480429 | 0.0089910937788323 | 0.0106465195709939 | 0.392534199004252 |
28 | 101.66 | 101.649359642584 | 0.0117857285541051 | 0.0106403574155241 | 0.0228634951773747 |
29 | 101.77 | 101.759400667893 | 0.0367068525134991 | 0.0105993321074123 | 0.203988177108418 |
30 | 101.82 | 101.809404811985 | 0.040079074733847 | 0.0105951880150128 | 0.027610610650106 |
31 | 101.78 | 101.769386179755 | 0.0197672426005779 | 0.0106138202445912 | -0.16633251119359 |
32 | 101.28 | 101.269295916727 | -0.112060395788408 | 0.0107040832726320 | -1.07962398180594 |
33 | 101.29 | 101.279311737844 | -0.0811037254439684 | 0.0106882621560814 | 0.253537069583334 |
34 | 101.37 | 101.359327323774 | -0.0402459262768263 | 0.010672676225837 | 0.334637023681791 |
35 | 101.12 | 101.109312177555 | -0.0934413378146773 | 0.0106878224453378 | -0.435692178920362 |
36 | 101.51 | 101.499338233413 | 0.0291626009788227 | 0.0106617665869096 | 1.00418487210583 |
37 | 102.24 | 102.266203225094 | 0.214411009207366 | -0.0262032250935371 | 1.61463476533749 |
38 | 102.94 | 102.932823149750 | 0.326494681902529 | 0.00717685025042731 | 0.871317560731968 |
39 | 103.09 | 103.082725058048 | 0.281676616384881 | 0.00727494195247039 | -0.366527153335146 |
40 | 103.46 | 103.452761687947 | 0.304092045455078 | 0.0072383120526583 | 0.183439465808140 |
41 | 103.64 | 103.632723280672 | 0.272609057234745 | 0.0072767193277125 | -0.257741715202036 |
42 | 104.39 | 104.382833556325 | 0.393704706663714 | 0.00716644367481712 | 0.991580874127709 |
43 | 104.15 | 104.142724300902 | 0.232974299582409 | 0.00727569909844755 | -1.31627989799212 |
44 | 105.21 | 105.202830723504 | 0.442726256121331 | 0.00716927649549986 | 1.71784674455270 |
45 | 105.8 | 105.792844868524 | 0.480076970899705 | 0.00715513147573213 | 0.305909538284946 |
46 | 105.91 | 105.902818338589 | 0.386221807156536 | 0.0071816614112087 | -0.768707330585288 |
47 | 105.39 | 105.382769849284 | 0.156397238797767 | 0.00723015071617186 | -1.88236647106921 |
48 | 105.46 | 105.452766398805 | 0.134486375664457 | 0.00723360119541531 | -0.179460935387349 |
49 | 104.72 | 104.865725642857 | -0.047162469548292 | -0.145725642857173 | -1.55911141587972 |
50 | 103.14 | 103.140841115573 | -0.465004433973417 | -0.000841115573391832 | -3.28718271230301 |
51 | 102.63 | 102.630821263224 | -0.476427293630119 | -0.000821263223674354 | -0.093446718219952 |
52 | 102.32 | 102.320876057764 | -0.434196321776809 | -0.000876057763634722 | 0.345662807929606 |
53 | 101.93 | 101.930886917534 | -0.422984349636314 | -0.000886917534437867 | 0.0917979615088299 |
54 | 100.62 | 100.620724247123 | -0.647975545765978 | -0.000724247123189815 | -1.84242012302064 |
55 | 100.6 | 100.600810202774 | -0.488702372453864 | -0.00081020277419643 | 1.30438547197669 |
56 | 99.63 | 99.6307610320795 | -0.610768309656651 | -0.000761032079550974 | -0.999724171123227 |
57 | 98.9 | 98.9007519403006 | -0.641006918798332 | -0.000751940300637301 | -0.247662346523827 |
58 | 98.32 | 98.3207554124853 | -0.625535032553002 | -0.000755412485319058 | 0.126720939011964 |
59 | 99.22 | 99.2208202182434 | -0.23864900116482 | -0.00082021824338226 | 3.16877963671013 |
60 | 98.81 | 98.81081478516 | -0.282104592272321 | -0.000814785160120457 | -0.355923617417946 |