Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[33])
21	2570	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	2669	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	2450	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	2842	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	3440	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	2678	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	2981	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	2260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	2844	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	2546	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	2456	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	2295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	2379	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	2479	2474.0759	1827.4407	3120.711	0.494	0.6134	0.2773	0.6134
35	2057	2452.2097	1705.4824	3198.937	0.1498	0.472	0.5023	0.5762
36	2280	2874.2482	2066.0581	3682.4383	0.0748	0.9763	0.5312	0.8851
37	2351	3472.4753	2650.4505	4294.5002	0.0037	0.9978	0.5309	0.9954
38	2276	2838.5322	1997.7344	3679.3301	0.0949	0.8721	0.6459	0.858
39	2548	2987.8033	2146.5136	3829.093	0.1528	0.9514	0.5063	0.922
40	2311	2501.8132	1651.7464	3351.88	0.33	0.4576	0.7114	0.6115
41	2201	2815.0662	1967.7075	3662.425	0.0777	0.8782	0.4733	0.8434
42	2725	2837.8077	1985.1667	3690.4488	0.3977	0.9284	0.7488	0.8542
43	2408	2402.1942	1553.1275	3251.261	0.4947	0.2281	0.4506	0.5213
44	2139	2609.1248	1756.6741	3461.5756	0.1399	0.6781	0.7649	0.7016
45	1898	2320.6141	1471.448	3169.7801	0.1647	0.6625	0.4464	0.4464
46	2537	2783.8742	1675.5476	3892.2009	0.3312	0.9414	0.7051	0.763
47	2069	2412.4341	1222.8894	3601.9787	0.2857	0.4187	0.7209	0.522
48	2063	3155.2258	1913.4941	4396.9575	0.0424	0.9568	0.9164	0.8898
49	2524	3472.88	2215.4766	4730.2834	0.0696	0.986	0.9598	0.9559
50	2437	3070.636	1796.7358	4344.5362	0.1648	0.7998	0.8893	0.8564
51	2189	3044.9551	1768.4226	4321.4875	0.0944	0.8247	0.7773	0.8467
52	2793	2671.6928	1388.6488	3954.7367	0.4265	0.7696	0.7092	0.6726
53	2074	2938.1625	1655.1013	4221.2238	0.0934	0.5877	0.8699	0.8035
54	2622	2940.4038	1654.8978	4225.9097	0.3137	0.9067	0.6287	0.804
55	2278	2591.8049	1305.8298	3877.7801	0.3162	0.4816	0.6103	0.6272
56	2144	2648.2475	1362.2008	3934.2942	0.2211	0.7137	0.7812	0.6592
57	2427	2568.6103	1280.6354	3856.5852	0.4147	0.7409	0.8463	0.6135
58	2139	2771.6479	1287.4587	4255.837	0.2017	0.6755	0.6217	0.698
59	1828	2703.0767	1132.1243	4274.0291	0.1375	0.7592	0.7856	0.657
60	2072	3110.459	1496.1865	4724.7315	0.1037	0.9403	0.8983	0.8128
61	1800	3784.9082	2148.0956	5421.7209	0.0087	0.9799	0.9345	0.9539

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
34	0.1333	0.002	0	24.247	0	0
35	0.1554	-0.1612	0.0816	156190.7135	78107.4803	279.4772
36	0.1435	-0.2067	0.1233	353130.9093	169781.9566	412.0461
37	0.1208	-0.323	0.1732	1257706.9219	441763.1979	664.6527
38	0.1511	-0.1982	0.1782	316442.5019	416699.0587	645.5223
39	0.1437	-0.1472	0.173	193426.9369	379487.0384	616.0252
40	0.1734	-0.0763	0.1592	36409.6926	330475.989	574.8704
41	0.1536	-0.2181	0.1666	377077.358	336301.1601	579.9148
42	0.1533	-0.0398	0.1525	12725.583	300348.3182	548.0404
43	0.1803	0.0024	0.1375	33.7067	270316.8571	519.92
44	0.1667	-0.1802	0.1414	221017.372	265835.0857	515.592
45	0.1867	-0.1821	0.1448	178602.6624	258565.7171	508.4936
46	0.2031	-0.0887	0.1404	60946.8926	243364.2691	493.3196
47	0.2516	-0.1424	0.1406	117946.9524	234405.8893	484.1548
48	0.2008	-0.3462	0.1543	1192957.146	298309.3064	546.177
49	0.1847	-0.2732	0.1617	900373.2176	335938.3009	579.6018
50	0.2117	-0.2064	0.1643	401494.5926	339794.5533	582.919
51	0.2139	-0.2811	0.1708	732659.1156	361620.3623	601.3488
52	0.245	0.0454	0.1642	14715.4441	343362.2087	585.9712
53	0.2228	-0.2941	0.1707	746776.9065	363532.9436	602.9369
54	0.2231	-0.1083	0.1678	101380.9602	351049.5158	592.4943
55	0.2531	-0.1211	0.1656	98473.5448	339568.7899	582.7253
56	0.2478	-0.1904	0.1667	254265.5128	335859.9518	579.5343
57	0.2558	-0.0551	0.1621	20053.4848	322701.349	568.0681
58	0.2732	-0.2283	0.1647	400243.316	325803.0276	570.7916
59	0.2965	-0.3237	0.1708	765759.1917	342724.4186	585.4267
60	0.2648	-0.3339	0.1769	1078397.1331	369971.5561	608.2529
61	0.2206	-0.5244	0.1893	3939860.742	497467.5985	705.3138