| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 23.7 | 23.7748301328505 | -1.83135417540214 | -0.0748301328505352 | -1.44810168374356 |
| 3 | 22 | 21.9465372012102 | -1.82858782162249 | 0.0534627987897712 | 0.00223915999513986 |
| 4 | 21.3 | 21.2147836974749 | -0.84154377676446 | 0.0852163025250775 | 0.762499701415953 |
| 5 | 20.7 | 20.6960169894596 | -0.551665609120559 | 0.00398301054043314 | 0.224942038467864 |
| 6 | 20.4 | 20.3864496111449 | -0.334039498355909 | 0.0135503888550789 | 0.168803164391284 |
| 7 | 20.3 | 20.2854751743608 | -0.124526240806792 | 0.0145248256391764 | 0.162510907529433 |
| 8 | 20.4 | 20.3859127839187 | 0.0776922219204941 | 0.0140872160812504 | 0.156852187410448 |
| 9 | 19.8 | 19.8500810490141 | -0.473795942760007 | -0.0500810490140693 | -0.427765696544395 |
| 10 | 19.5 | 19.4780164212245 | -0.382350527753403 | 0.0219835787754529 | 0.070930282436396 |
| 11 | 23.1 | 22.8150786476378 | 2.96100191245392 | 0.284921352362178 | 2.59329494336066 |
| 12 | 23.5 | 23.7314950576765 | 1.12314013941252 | -0.231495057676515 | -1.42555047010573 |
| 13 | 23.5 | 23.5622425604115 | -0.0377602015796381 | -0.0622425604114833 | -0.90134728997822 |
| 14 | 22.9 | 22.9521955245003 | -0.552642969998991 | -0.0521955245002888 | -0.40294974639098 |
| 15 | 21.9 | 21.9706969947931 | -0.922509942553642 | -0.0706969947931021 | -0.290274379802242 |
| 16 | 21.5 | 21.3900118177106 | -0.62534426428897 | 0.109988182289448 | 0.230478927215265 |
| 17 | 20.5 | 20.5307927472549 | -0.827683523507809 | -0.0307927472549413 | -0.156886744404214 |
| 18 | 20.2 | 20.1588994712089 | -0.433022016310337 | 0.0411005287911376 | 0.306170675989697 |
| 19 | 19.4 | 19.4887954702558 | -0.638360236265276 | -0.0887954702558011 | -0.159269963078949 |
| 20 | 19.2 | 19.0657634775065 | -0.451869580381373 | 0.134236522493470 | 0.144653294991571 |
| 21 | 18.8 | 18.6805102261044 | -0.394177532663560 | 0.119489773895616 | 0.0447492369805966 |
| 22 | 18.8 | 19.1657406944248 | 0.367427207661509 | -0.365740694424839 | 0.590744251909306 |
| 23 | 22.6 | 21.9449950068195 | 2.45623756440693 | 0.655004993180487 | 1.62020863417254 |
| 24 | 23.3 | 23.5628371945116 | 1.73025116135588 | -0.262837194511553 | -0.56312255012981 |
| 25 | 23 | 23.2244276416474 | -0.0602066067708931 | -0.224427641647447 | -1.39058359824642 |
| 26 | 21.4 | 21.5227040000091 | -1.48276851213894 | -0.122704000009090 | -1.10542355132324 |
| 27 | 19.9 | 19.9850042003555 | -1.52962624574123 | -0.0850042003554598 | -0.0364664986028825 |
| 28 | 18.8 | 18.6068530924527 | -1.39975380788440 | 0.193146907547254 | 0.100894234343623 |
| 29 | 18.6 | 18.5638121856395 | -0.239921772462379 | 0.0361878143605198 | 0.898864720290756 |
| 30 | 18.4 | 18.3456330967770 | -0.221335176901465 | 0.0543669032230243 | 0.0144194645201181 |
| 31 | 18.6 | 18.6634999770377 | 0.239799162959192 | -0.0634999770376788 | 0.357682098145959 |
| 32 | 19.9 | 19.6131870294856 | 0.846923711073342 | 0.286812970514353 | 0.470919293061608 |
| 33 | 19.2 | 19.2094264779113 | -0.222672912896664 | -0.00942647791128964 | -0.829640810164218 |
| 34 | 18.4 | 19.1290634011095 | -0.100967612841749 | -0.729063401109502 | 0.0944018439297358 |
| 35 | 21.1 | 20.3260088251693 | 1.00901148179725 | 0.773991174830726 | 0.860967642123709 |
| 36 | 20.5 | 20.6556556449211 | 0.428193039487809 | -0.155655644921101 | -0.450547456268020 |
| 37 | 19.1 | 19.2964161808192 | -1.09994836037982 | -0.196416180819169 | -1.18680540313525 |
| 38 | 18.1 | 18.1709759820258 | -1.12174323724086 | -0.0709759820258269 | -0.0169063811079794 |
| 39 | 17 | 17.0352854081878 | -1.13358183698342 | -0.0352854081877549 | -0.00919402025465744 |
| 40 | 17.1 | 16.9665961484334 | -0.227126735454729 | 0.133403851566621 | 0.704217799230097 |
| 41 | 17.4 | 17.2757647168222 | 0.228809320403739 | 0.124235283177842 | 0.353379938932194 |
| 42 | 16.8 | 16.8944635864297 | -0.289560415791683 | -0.09446358642972 | -0.402100881756414 |
| 43 | 15.3 | 15.6214506212061 | -1.12550080591388 | -0.3214506212061 | -0.648429295827709 |
| 44 | 14.3 | 13.8443364896018 | -1.67943220210800 | 0.455663510398215 | -0.429656037037202 |
| 45 | 13.4 | 13.2543344898595 | -0.753323752279421 | 0.145665510140453 | 0.718344339003485 |
| 46 | 15.3 | 15.9358915294317 | 2.16659309092805 | -0.635891529431705 | 2.26487757993197 |
| 47 | 22.1 | 21.0400303279409 | 4.66352659954477 | 1.05996967205909 | 1.93675298877730 |
| 48 | 23.7 | 23.8302671800425 | 3.07172722790736 | -0.130267180042515 | -1.23489682234395 |
| 49 | 22.2 | 22.8068540711887 | -0.408988081556008 | -0.606854071188698 | -2.70245694173248 |
| 50 | 19.5 | 19.7612055099355 | -2.64881609368622 | -0.261205509935523 | -1.73680562086236 |
| 51 | 16.6 | 16.7838923072824 | -2.92676321861172 | -0.18389230728238 | -0.215719083988144 |
| 52 | 17.3 | 16.9630543452069 | -0.294357843734779 | 0.336945654793067 | 2.04447234367712 |
| 53 | 19.8 | 19.3860795401536 | 2.00791194556179 | 0.413920459846449 | 1.78481278060656 |
| 54 | 21.2 | 21.1905811853676 | 1.83571274414042 | 0.00941881463237196 | -0.133558544746134 |
| 55 | 21.5 | 21.7183643893044 | 0.728111053498361 | -0.218364389304364 | -0.859176709977856 |
| 56 | 20.6 | 20.2821364371752 | -1.10503088638280 | 0.317863562824792 | -1.42187340015066 |
| 57 | 19.1 | 19.3444888265633 | -0.96325943109401 | -0.244488826563278 | 0.109966450751919 |
| 58 | 19.6 | 20.6282648016024 | 0.939906914563213 | -1.02826480160236 | 1.47622697555587 |
| 59 | 23.5 | 22.3459626444705 | 1.59857481094797 | 1.15403735552951 | 0.510895478470541 |
| 60 | 24 | 23.6823907604055 | 1.37663438016731 | 0.317609239594518 | -0.172190609779713 |
