Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[44])
32	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.1	8.214	7.913	8.515	0.2289	0.7711	8e-04	0.7711
46	8	8.4364	7.9716	8.9013	0.0329	0.922	0.3943	0.922
47	7.9	8.6816	8.1526	9.2106	0.0019	0.9942	0.8516	0.9844
48	7.9	8.9577	8.4286	9.4867	0	1	0.955	0.9993
49	8	8.9749	8.4303	9.5195	2e-04	0.9999	0.8388	0.9992
50	8	8.6036	8.0386	9.1686	0.0181	0.9819	0.369	0.9597
51	7.9	8.091	7.5259	8.6561	0.2538	0.6239	0.0387	0.4876
52	8	7.7375	7.1489	8.3262	0.1911	0.2943	0.0056	0.1137
53	7.7	7.6303	6.9695	8.291	0.4181	0.1364	0.0235	0.0818
54	7.2	7.7202	6.9909	8.4495	0.081	0.5217	0.226	0.1537
55	7.5	8.4638	7.7032	9.2243	0.0065	0.9994	0.7517	0.8257
56	7.3	8.5548	7.7899	9.3196	7e-04	0.9966	0.8781	0.8781
57	7	8.4684	7.6825	9.2542	1e-04	0.9982	0.8209	0.8209
58	7	8.2424	7.4212	9.0636	0.0015	0.9985	0.7186	0.6331
59	7	8.0994	7.23	8.9689	0.0066	0.9934	0.6735	0.4995
60	7.2	8.2636	7.3514	9.1759	0.0111	0.9967	0.7827	0.6374
61	7.3	8.4649	7.5154	9.4144	0.0081	0.9955	0.8314	0.7744
62	7.1	8.4073	7.4278	9.3868	0.0045	0.9866	0.7924	0.7307
63	6.8	8.1171	7.1058	9.1285	0.0053	0.9756	0.6631	0.5133
64	6.4	7.7465	6.6965	8.7965	0.006	0.9614	0.3181	0.2547
65	6.1	7.4435	6.3424	8.5446	0.0084	0.9684	0.324	0.1213
66	6.5	7.3023	6.1401	8.4645	0.088	0.9787	0.5685	0.0893
67	7.7	7.9561	6.7287	9.1834	0.3413	0.99	0.7668	0.4091
68	7.9	8.0812	6.7922	9.3702	0.3914	0.7189	0.8826	0.4886
69	7.5	8.1223	6.7389	9.5057	0.189	0.6236	0.9441	0.5126
70	6.9	8.0154	6.5363	9.4945	0.0697	0.7527	0.9108	0.4554
71	6.6	7.9131	6.3511	9.4752	0.0497	0.8982	0.8741	0.4073
72	6.9	8.0185	6.3942	9.6429	0.0886	0.9565	0.8383	0.4609

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
45	0.0187	-0.0139	0	0.013	0	0
46	0.0281	-0.0517	0.0328	0.1905	0.1017	0.319
47	0.0311	-0.09	0.0519	0.611	0.2715	0.521
48	0.0301	-0.1181	0.0684	1.1187	0.4833	0.6952
49	0.031	-0.1086	0.0765	0.9504	0.5767	0.7594
50	0.0335	-0.0702	0.0754	0.3643	0.5413	0.7357
51	0.0356	-0.0236	0.068	0.0365	0.4692	0.685
52	0.0388	0.0339	0.0638	0.0689	0.4192	0.6474
53	0.0442	0.0091	0.0577	0.0049	0.3731	0.6108
54	0.0482	-0.0674	0.0587	0.2706	0.3629	0.6024
55	0.0458	-0.1139	0.0637	0.9288	0.4143	0.6437
56	0.0456	-0.1467	0.0706	1.5745	0.511	0.7148
57	0.0473	-0.1734	0.0785	2.1561	0.6375	0.7985
58	0.0508	-0.1507	0.0837	1.5436	0.7023	0.838
59	0.0548	-0.1357	0.0871	1.2088	0.736	0.8579
60	0.0563	-0.1287	0.0897	1.1313	0.7607	0.8722
61	0.0572	-0.1376	0.0925	1.3571	0.7958	0.8921
62	0.0594	-0.1555	0.096	1.7089	0.8465	0.9201
63	0.0636	-0.1623	0.0995	1.7349	0.8933	0.9451
64	0.0692	-0.1738	0.1032	1.8132	0.9393	0.9692
65	0.0755	-0.1805	0.1069	1.805	0.9805	0.9902
66	0.0812	-0.1099	0.1071	0.6437	0.9652	0.9824
67	0.0787	-0.0322	0.1038	0.0656	0.9261	0.9623
68	0.0814	-0.0224	0.1004	0.0328	0.8889	0.9428
69	0.0869	-0.0766	0.0995	0.3873	0.8688	0.9321
70	0.0941	-0.1392	0.101	1.2441	0.8832	0.9398
71	0.1007	-0.1659	0.1034	1.7243	0.9144	0.9562
72	0.1034	-0.1395	0.1047	1.2511	0.9264	0.9625