Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[61])
49	6.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	6.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	6.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	6.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	6.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	6.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	6.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	6.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	6.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	6.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	6.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	5.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	6.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
62	7.2	6.3642	5.9157	6.8126	1e-04	0.8759	0.0711	0.8759
63	7.3	6.5792	5.8474	7.3109	0.0268	0.0482	0.4777	0.9003
64	6.9	6.5833	5.6111	7.5556	0.2616	0.0743	0.6442	0.8351
65	6.1	6.4648	5.3807	7.5488	0.2548	0.2157	0.6171	0.7452
66	5.8	6.3635	5.2466	7.4804	0.1614	0.6781	0.6129	0.6781
67	6.2	6.3419	5.2128	7.471	0.4027	0.8266	0.3919	0.6627
68	7.1	6.3762	5.2321	7.5203	0.1075	0.6186	0.2339	0.682
69	7.7	6.4148	5.2433	7.5863	0.0158	0.1258	0.2596	0.7008
70	7.9	6.428	5.22	7.636	0.0085	0.0195	0.5181	0.7027
71	7.7	6.4188	5.1753	7.6622	0.0217	0.0098	0.6923	0.6923
72	7.4	6.4045	5.1316	7.6774	0.0627	0.023	0.824	0.6804
73	7.5	6.3978	5.0998	7.6959	0.048	0.0651	0.6735	0.6735

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
62	0.036	0.1313	0	0.6986	0	0
63	0.0567	0.1096	0.1204	0.5196	0.6091	0.7805
64	0.0754	0.0481	0.0963	0.1003	0.4395	0.6629
65	0.0856	-0.0564	0.0864	0.1331	0.3629	0.6024
66	0.0895	-0.0886	0.0868	0.3175	0.3538	0.5948
67	0.0908	-0.0224	0.0761	0.0201	0.2982	0.5461
68	0.0915	0.1135	0.0814	0.5238	0.3304	0.5748
69	0.0932	0.2004	0.0963	1.6518	0.4956	0.704
70	0.0959	0.229	0.111	2.1667	0.6813	0.8254
71	0.0988	0.1996	0.1199	1.6415	0.7773	0.8816
72	0.1014	0.1554	0.1231	0.991	0.7967	0.8926
73	0.1035	0.1723	0.1272	1.2147	0.8316	0.9119