| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 260993 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 254663 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 250643 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 243422 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 247105 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 248541 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 245039 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 237080 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 237085 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 225554 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 226839 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 247934 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 248333 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 246969 | 249146.7519 | 242271.2636 | 256022.2402 | 0.2674 | 0.5917 | 0.0579 | 0.5917 |
| 62 | 245098 | 242185.7829 | 233002.1223 | 251369.4434 | 0.2671 | 0.1537 | 0.0355 | 0.0948 |
| 63 | 246263 | 234182.0508 | 222449.9181 | 245914.1835 | 0.0218 | 0.0341 | 0.0613 | 0.009 |
| 64 | 255765 | 235895.88 | 221088.0997 | 250703.6604 | 0.0043 | 0.085 | 0.0689 | 0.0499 |
| 65 | 264319 | 236746.7962 | 219504.8967 | 253988.6957 | 9e-04 | 0.0153 | 0.09 | 0.0939 |
| 66 | 268347 | 234541.9322 | 214859.4339 | 254224.4305 | 4e-04 | 0.0015 | 0.1479 | 0.0848 |
| 67 | 273046 | 228750.153 | 206721.184 | 250779.1219 | 0 | 2e-04 | 0.2293 | 0.0407 |
| 68 | 273963 | 226467.4883 | 202317.2862 | 250617.6904 | 1e-04 | 1e-04 | 0.1944 | 0.038 |
| 69 | 267430 | 220063.3097 | 193866.2154 | 246260.404 | 2e-04 | 0 | 0.3406 | 0.0172 |
| 70 | 271993 | 217137.0285 | 189009.5985 | 245264.4585 | 1e-04 | 2e-04 | 0.2495 | 0.0149 |
| 71 | 292710 | 238658.3721 | 208717.1996 | 268599.5445 | 2e-04 | 0.0145 | 0.2719 | 0.2633 |
| 72 | 295881 | 241139.6793 | 209464.4607 | 272814.8978 | 4e-04 | 7e-04 | 0.3281 | 0.3281 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.0141 | -0.0087 | 7e-04 | 4742603.5101 | 395216.9592 | 628.6628 |
| 62 | 0.0193 | 0.012 | 0.001 | 8481008.6947 | 706750.7246 | 840.6847 |
| 63 | 0.0256 | 0.0516 | 0.0043 | 145949333.3605 | 12162444.4467 | 3487.4696 |
| 64 | 0.032 | 0.0842 | 0.007 | 394781929.1421 | 32898494.0952 | 5735.7209 |
| 65 | 0.0372 | 0.1165 | 0.0097 | 760226423.2236 | 63352201.9353 | 7959.4096 |
| 66 | 0.0428 | 0.1441 | 0.012 | 1142782607.0138 | 95231883.9178 | 9758.6825 |
| 67 | 0.0491 | 0.1936 | 0.0161 | 1962122063.0893 | 163510171.9241 | 12787.1096 |
| 68 | 0.0544 | 0.2097 | 0.0175 | 2255823631.3547 | 187985302.6129 | 13710.7732 |
| 69 | 0.0607 | 0.2152 | 0.0179 | 2243603346.998 | 186966945.5832 | 13673.5857 |
| 70 | 0.0661 | 0.2526 | 0.0211 | 3009177613.0463 | 250764801.0872 | 15835.555 |
| 71 | 0.064 | 0.2265 | 0.0189 | 2921578480.0722 | 243464873.3394 | 15603.361 |
| 72 | 0.067 | 0.227 | 0.0189 | 2996612197.3426 | 249717683.1119 | 15802.4581 |
