Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[371])
370	83.87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
371	79.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
372	80.13	79.9389	75.9388	83.939	0.4627	0.5621	0.5621	0.5621
373	79.76	79.5575	74.5806	84.5344	0.4682	0.4108	0.4108	0.4902
374	78.2	79.4986	73.7561	85.2411	0.3288	0.4645	0.4645	0.4835
375	78.05	79.454	73.1228	85.7853	0.3319	0.6511	0.6511	0.4795
376	79.05	79.4397	72.598	86.2814	0.4556	0.6547	0.6547	0.4794
377	73.32	79.4334	72.1299	86.7368	0.0504	0.541	0.541	0.48
378	75.17	79.431	71.6983	87.1637	0.1401	0.9393	0.9393	0.4809
379	73.26	79.4301	71.2928	87.5674	0.0686	0.8476	0.8476	0.4818
380	73.72	79.4297	70.9078	87.9517	0.0946	0.9221	0.9221	0.4825
381	73.57	79.4296	70.5399	88.3193	0.0982	0.896	0.896	0.4833
382	70.6	79.4295	70.1868	88.6723	0.0306	0.893	0.893	0.4839
383	71.25	79.4295	69.8468	89.0122	0.0472	0.9645	0.9645	0.4845
384	74.22	79.4295	69.5185	89.3405	0.1515	0.9471	0.9471	0.485
385	73.32	79.4295	69.2007	89.6583	0.1209	0.8409	0.8409	0.4854
386	73.01	79.4295	68.8925	89.9665	0.1162	0.8721	0.8721	0.4859
387	74.21	79.4295	68.5931	90.2659	0.1726	0.8772	0.8772	0.4863
388	75.32	79.4295	68.3017	90.5573	0.2346	0.821	0.821	0.4866
389	71.73	79.4295	68.0178	90.8413	0.093	0.7598	0.7598	0.487
390	71.94	79.4295	67.7407	91.1183	0.1046	0.9017	0.9017	0.4873
391	72.94	79.4295	67.4701	91.3889	0.1438	0.8902	0.8902	0.4875
392	72.47	79.4295	67.2054	91.6536	0.1322	0.851	0.851	0.4878
393	71.94	79.4295	66.9464	91.9126	0.1198	0.8627	0.8627	0.4881
394	74.3	79.4295	66.6927	92.1664	0.215	0.8754	0.8754	0.4883
395	74.3	79.4295	66.4439	92.4152	0.2194	0.7806	0.7806	0.4885

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
372	0.0255	0.0024	1e-04	0.0365	0.0015	0.039
373	0.0319	0.0025	1e-04	0.041	0.0017	0.0413
374	0.0369	-0.0163	7e-04	1.6863	0.0703	0.2651
375	0.0407	-0.0177	7e-04	1.9713	0.0821	0.2866
376	0.0439	-0.0049	2e-04	0.1519	0.0063	0.0796
377	0.0469	-0.077	0.0032	37.3734	1.5572	1.2479
378	0.0497	-0.0536	0.0022	18.1562	0.7565	0.8698
379	0.0523	-0.0777	0.0032	38.0699	1.5862	1.2595
380	0.0547	-0.0719	0.003	32.601	1.3584	1.1655
381	0.0571	-0.0738	0.0031	34.3348	1.4306	1.1961
382	0.0594	-0.1112	0.0046	77.9608	3.2484	1.8023
383	0.0616	-0.103	0.0043	66.9046	2.7877	1.6696
384	0.0637	-0.0656	0.0027	27.139	1.1308	1.0634
385	0.0657	-0.0769	0.0032	37.3261	1.5553	1.2471
386	0.0677	-0.0808	0.0034	41.2101	1.7171	1.3104
387	0.0696	-0.0657	0.0027	27.2433	1.1351	1.0654
388	0.0715	-0.0517	0.0022	16.8881	0.7037	0.8389
389	0.0733	-0.0969	0.004	59.2825	2.4701	1.5717
390	0.0751	-0.0943	0.0039	56.0928	2.3372	1.5288
391	0.0768	-0.0817	0.0034	42.1137	1.7547	1.3247
392	0.0785	-0.0876	0.0037	48.4348	2.0181	1.4206
393	0.0802	-0.0943	0.0039	56.0928	2.3372	1.5288
394	0.0818	-0.0646	0.0027	26.3119	1.0963	1.0471
395	0.0834	-0.0646	0.0027	26.3119	1.0963	1.0471