Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[48])
36510-------
37514-------
38517-------
39508-------
40493-------
41490-------
42469-------
43478-------
44528-------
45534-------
46518-------
47506-------
48502-------
49516505.1244489.9758520.2730.07970.6570.12540.657
50528515.1799494.6957535.66410.110.46870.43090.8964
51533510.8489483.9679537.72990.05310.10550.58230.7406
52536493.3898458.8691527.91050.00780.01230.50880.3125
53537490.7594450.3806531.13830.01240.0140.51470.2927
54524475.0858429.9336520.2380.01690.00360.60420.1213
55536485.4686434.6471536.29010.02570.06860.61330.2619
56587532.9848476.2068589.76280.03110.45860.56830.8576
57597540.3252478.7113601.93910.03570.06880.57970.8886
58581527.8962461.793593.99940.05770.02020.61540.7787
59564515.4666444.3015586.63160.09070.03550.60280.6446
60564509.7249433.6494585.80040.0810.0810.57890.5789


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
490.01530.02150118.278500
500.02030.02490.0232164.3549141.316711.8877
510.02680.04340.0299490.6698257.767816.0551
520.03570.08640.0441815.6258647.232325.4408
530.0420.09420.05412138.189945.423630.7477
540.04850.1030.06222392.59891186.619534.4473
550.05340.10410.06822553.42421381.877337.1736
560.05440.10130.07232917.64091573.847839.6718
570.05820.10490.0763212.03081755.868141.9031
580.06390.10060.07842820.01471862.282843.1542
590.07040.09420.07992355.49351907.120143.6706
600.07610.10650.08212945.78711993.675744.6506