Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[75])
74	4.18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	4.25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	4.25	4.2885	4.0366	4.5561	0.3889	0.6111	0.6111	0.6111
77	3.97	4.4141	3.9975	4.8741	0.0292	0.7578	0.7578	0.7578
78	3.42	4.5066	3.9432	5.1505	5e-04	0.9488	0.9488	0.7826
79	2.75	4.5739	3.8007	5.5045	1e-04	0.9925	0.9925	0.7525
80	2.31	4.6803	3.6792	5.9537	1e-04	0.9985	0.9985	0.7461
81	2	4.7805	3.5562	6.4262	5e-04	0.9984	0.9984	0.7362
82	1.66	4.8663	3.4008	6.9634	0.0014	0.9963	0.9963	0.7177
83	1.31	4.969	3.2479	7.6022	0.0032	0.9931	0.9931	0.7038
84	1.09	5.0737	3.0962	8.3141	0.008	0.9886	0.9886	0.6908
85	1	5.1719	2.9341	9.1164	0.0191	0.9787	0.9787	0.6765
86	1	5.2776	2.773	10.0443	0.0393	0.9607	0.9607	0.6637
87	1	5.3869	2.615	11.0971	0.0661	0.9339	0.9339	0.6518

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
76	0.0318	-0.009	0	0.0015	0	0
77	0.0532	-0.1006	0.0548	0.1972	0.0994	0.3152
78	0.0729	-0.2411	0.1169	1.1807	0.4598	0.6781
79	0.1038	-0.3988	0.1874	3.3267	1.1765	1.0847
80	0.1388	-0.5064	0.2512	5.6181	2.0648	1.437
81	0.1756	-0.5816	0.3063	7.731	3.0092	1.7347
82	0.2199	-0.6589	0.3566	10.2804	4.048	2.012
83	0.2704	-0.7364	0.4041	13.3886	5.2155	2.2838
84	0.3259	-0.7852	0.4464	15.8699	6.3993	2.5297
85	0.3891	-0.8066	0.4825	17.4045	7.4999	2.7386
86	0.4608	-0.8105	0.5123	18.2976	8.4815	2.9123
87	0.5408	-0.8144	0.5375	19.2446	9.3784	3.0624