Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[85])
73	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
74	105.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	118.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	106.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	109.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	117.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	92.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	104.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	112.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	122.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	113.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	110.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	112.8	104.6184	98.4629	110.7738	0.0046	0.0264	0.4141	0.0264
87	109.8	117.09	110.9358	123.2442	0.0101	0.9141	0.293	0.9791
88	117.3	110.1177	103.6616	116.5739	0.0146	0.5384	0.8887	0.4298
89	109.1	107.853	100.4879	115.218	0.37	0.006	0.3501	0.2243
90	115.9	116.9583	109.5819	124.3348	0.3893	0.9816	0.4744	0.9518
91	96	92.9006	85.1718	100.6295	0.2159	0	0.5405	0
92	99.8	102.1154	94.087	110.1438	0.2859	0.9323	0.3054	0.0181
93	116.8	114.9095	106.8274	122.9917	0.3233	0.9999	0.7205	0.8463
94	115.7	119.7665	111.4319	128.101	0.1695	0.7573	0.2679	0.9835
95	99.4	111.5222	103.0525	119.9918	0.0025	0.1668	0.3404	0.5754
96	94.3	102.0769	93.5284	110.6254	0.0373	0.7303	0.683	0.024
97	91	106.6158	97.9261	115.3055	2e-04	0.9973	0.1785	0.1785

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
86	0.03	0.0782	0	66.9393	0	0
87	0.0268	-0.0623	0.0702	53.1439	60.0416	7.7486
88	0.0299	0.0652	0.0686	51.5851	57.2228	7.5646
89	0.0348	0.0116	0.0543	1.5551	43.3058	6.5807
90	0.0322	-0.009	0.0453	1.1201	34.8687	5.905
91	0.0424	0.0334	0.0433	9.6061	30.6583	5.537
92	0.0401	-0.0227	0.0403	5.361	27.0444	5.2004
93	0.0359	0.0165	0.0373	3.5739	24.1106	4.9103
94	0.0355	-0.034	0.037	16.5364	23.269	4.8238
95	0.0387	-0.1087	0.0441	146.9466	35.6368	5.9697
96	0.0427	-0.0762	0.0471	60.4801	37.8952	6.1559
97	0.0416	-0.1465	0.0553	243.854	55.0585	7.4201