Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[56])
44	253353	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	246057	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	235372	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	258556	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	260993	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	254663	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	250643	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	243422	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	247105	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	248541	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	245039	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	237080	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	237085	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	225554	231867.6758	224991.2016	238744.15	0.036	0.0685	0	0.0685
58	226839	225332.9171	215659.7858	235006.0485	0.3801	0.4821	0.021	0.0086
59	247934	247662.8228	235330.2294	259995.4163	0.4828	0.9995	0.0417	0.9536
60	248333	250325.568	234928.7198	265722.4161	0.3999	0.6196	0.0872	0.9541
61	246969	247945.692	229964.0107	265927.3732	0.4576	0.4832	0.232	0.8818
62	245098	241656.9708	221242.1389	262071.8026	0.3706	0.305	0.1941	0.6697
63	246263	234083.5591	211337.1839	256829.9342	0.147	0.1713	0.2105	0.398
64	255765	235397.2079	210512.702	260281.7138	0.0543	0.196	0.1782	0.4471
65	264319	236772.8244	209869.3737	263676.2751	0.0224	0.0832	0.1956	0.4909
66	268347	233845.964	205032.6632	262659.2647	0.0095	0.0191	0.2232	0.4128
67	273046	226921.7761	196307.6914	257535.8607	0.0016	0.004	0.2577	0.2576
68	273963	225595.8528	193267.9552	257923.7504	0.0017	0.002	0.243	0.243
69	267430	220652.8012	185505.6518	255799.9505	0.0045	0.0015	0.3923	0.1797
70	271993	214190.0079	176442.4791	251937.5367	0.0013	0.0029	0.2557	0.1173
71	292710	236245.8477	195917.8318	276573.8635	0.003	0.0412	0.285	0.4837
72	295881	238983.6509	195966.5787	282000.7232	0.0048	0.0072	0.3351	0.5345

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
57	0.0151	-0.0272	0.0017	39862501.8069	2491406.3629	1578.4189
58	0.0219	0.0067	4e-04	2268285.6327	141767.852	376.5207
59	0.0254	0.0011	1e-04	73537.058	4596.0661	67.7943
60	0.0314	-0.008	5e-04	3970327.1547	248145.4472	498.142
61	0.037	-0.0039	2e-04	953927.2186	59620.4512	244.173
62	0.0431	0.0142	9e-04	11840682.153	740042.6346	860.2573
63	0.0496	0.052	0.0033	148338781.5008	9271173.8438	3044.8602
64	0.0539	0.0865	0.0054	414846954.931	25927934.6832	5091.948
65	0.058	0.1163	0.0073	758791790.8054	47424486.9253	6886.5439
66	0.0629	0.1475	0.0092	1190321487.6273	74395092.9767	8625.259
67	0.0688	0.2033	0.0127	2127444034.3723	132965252.1483	11531.056
68	0.0731	0.2144	0.0134	2339380928.1835	146211308.0115	12091.7868
69	0.0813	0.212	0.0132	2188106328.5687	136756645.5355	11694.2997
70	0.0899	0.2699	0.0169	3341185896.453	208824118.5283	14450.748
71	0.0871	0.239	0.0149	3188200499.4325	199262531.2145	14116.0381
72	0.0918	0.2381	0.0149	3237308329.557	202331770.5973	14224.3373