Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8.1	8.1089	7.8808	8.337	0.4695	0.5305	0	0.5305
34	8	8.2752	7.8837	8.6666	0.0841	0.8098	0.1301	0.8098
35	7.9	8.6081	8.0474	9.1687	0.0067	0.9832	0.7665	0.9621
36	7.9	8.8708	8.2697	9.4718	8e-04	0.9992	0.8867	0.994
37	8	9.0888	8.4872	9.6903	2e-04	0.9999	0.8974	0.9994
38	8	8.8673	8.2368	9.4978	0.0035	0.9965	0.6985	0.9915
39	7.9	8.5304	7.8748	9.186	0.0297	0.9436	0.4176	0.9009
40	8	8.3281	7.6707	8.9856	0.164	0.8991	0.3042	0.7518
41	7.7	8.042	7.3791	8.7049	0.156	0.5494	0.2228	0.4319
42	7.2	7.886	7.2046	8.5674	0.0242	0.7037	0.3715	0.2691
43	7.5	8.1173	7.4232	8.8114	0.0407	0.9952	0.4077	0.5195
44	7.3	8.0757	7.3798	8.7715	0.0144	0.9475	0.4727	0.4727
45	7	8.0731	7.3064	8.8398	0.003	0.9759	0.4726	0.4726
46	7	8.2461	7.3636	9.1286	0.0028	0.9972	0.7077	0.6272
47	7	8.6051	7.5447	9.6655	0.0015	0.9985	0.9038	0.8247
48	7.2	8.9057	7.7911	10.0202	0.0014	0.9996	0.9615	0.9217
49	7.3	9.1163	8.003	10.2295	7e-04	0.9996	0.9753	0.9632
50	7.1	8.88	7.7442	10.0158	0.0011	0.9968	0.9356	0.9108
51	6.8	8.523	7.3624	9.6835	0.0018	0.9919	0.8536	0.7625
52	6.4	8.3068	7.1444	9.4691	7e-04	0.9945	0.6975	0.6363
53	6.1	8.0497	6.8805	9.2188	5e-04	0.9972	0.7211	0.4664
54	6.5	7.9054	6.7119	9.0988	0.0105	0.9985	0.8767	0.3746
55	7.7	8.1698	6.9571	9.3826	0.2238	0.9965	0.8605	0.5449
56	7.9	8.1317	6.915	9.3484	0.3545	0.7566	0.9098	0.5204
57	7.5	8.119	6.8614	9.3766	0.1673	0.6336	0.9594	0.5118
58	6.9	8.2639	6.9447	9.583	0.0214	0.8718	0.9698	0.5962
59	6.6	8.5954	7.1683	10.0226	0.0031	0.9901	0.9858	0.7519
60	6.9	8.8828	7.4153	10.3503	0.004	0.9989	0.9877	0.8521

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.0143	-0.0011	0	1e-04	0	0
34	0.0241	-0.0333	0.0172	0.0757	0.0379	0.1947
35	0.0332	-0.0823	0.0389	0.5014	0.1924	0.4386
36	0.0346	-0.1094	0.0565	0.9424	0.3799	0.6163
37	0.0338	-0.1198	0.0692	1.1854	0.541	0.7355
38	0.0363	-0.0978	0.0739	0.7522	0.5762	0.7591
39	0.0392	-0.0739	0.0739	0.3974	0.5506	0.7421
40	0.0403	-0.0394	0.0696	0.1077	0.4953	0.7038
41	0.0421	-0.0425	0.0666	0.117	0.4532	0.6732
42	0.0441	-0.087	0.0686	0.4706	0.455	0.6745
43	0.0436	-0.076	0.0693	0.381	0.4483	0.6695
44	0.044	-0.096	0.0715	0.6016	0.461	0.679
45	0.0485	-0.1329	0.0763	1.1516	0.5142	0.717
46	0.0546	-0.1511	0.0816	1.5529	0.5884	0.767
47	0.0629	-0.1865	0.0886	2.5764	0.7209	0.8491
48	0.0639	-0.1915	0.095	2.9093	0.8577	0.9261
49	0.0623	-0.1992	0.1012	3.2988	1.0013	1.0006
50	0.0653	-0.2004	0.1067	3.1683	1.1217	1.0591
51	0.0695	-0.2022	0.1117	2.9686	1.2189	1.104
52	0.0714	-0.2295	0.1176	3.6357	1.3397	1.1575
53	0.0741	-0.2422	0.1235	3.8012	1.4569	1.207
54	0.077	-0.1778	0.126	1.9751	1.4805	1.2167
55	0.0757	-0.0575	0.123	0.2207	1.4257	1.194
56	0.0763	-0.0285	0.1191	0.0537	1.3685	1.1698
57	0.079	-0.0762	0.1174	0.3831	1.3291	1.1529
58	0.0814	-0.165	0.1192	1.8601	1.3495	1.1617
59	0.0847	-0.2321	0.1234	3.9817	1.447	1.2029
60	0.0843	-0.2232	0.127	3.9314	1.5358	1.2393