| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| Y[t] = + 952333.91111111 + 52432.972222222X[t] -87550.5749999999Crisis[t] -49993.2215277782M1[t] -12855.8663888886M2[t] + 191658.48875M3[t] + 358720.64388889M4[t] + 449322.199027778M5[t] + 460509.154166666M6[t] + 710123.109305555M7[t] + 601637.864444445M8[t] + 558155.334583333M9[t] + 395377.889722222M10[t] + 116431.644861111M11[t] + 4355.64486111111t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 952333.91111111 | 20235.112255 | 47.0634 | 0 | 0 |
| X | 52432.972222222 | 18171.667241 | 2.8854 | 0.005982 | 0.002991 |
| Crisis | -87550.5749999999 | 21113.569379 | -4.1466 | 0.000147 | 7.4e-05 |
| M1 | -49993.2215277782 | 22746.362239 | -2.1979 | 0.033146 | 0.016573 |
| M2 | -12855.8663888886 | 22634.487496 | -0.568 | 0.572874 | 0.286437 |
| M3 | 191658.48875 | 22534.882292 | 8.505 | 0 | 0 |
| M4 | 358720.64388889 | 22447.709954 | 15.9803 | 0 | 0 |
| M5 | 449322.199027778 | 22373.115811 | 20.0831 | 0 | 0 |
| M6 | 460509.154166666 | 22311.226023 | 20.6402 | 0 | 0 |
| M7 | 710123.109305555 | 22262.146544 | 31.8982 | 0 | 0 |
| M8 | 601637.864444445 | 22225.96224 | 27.0691 | 0 | 0 |
| M9 | 558155.334583333 | 21865.545174 | 25.5267 | 0 | 0 |
| M10 | 395377.889722222 | 21832.484954 | 18.1096 | 0 | 0 |
| M11 | 116431.644861111 | 21812.62477 | 5.3378 | 3e-06 | 1e-06 |
| t | 4355.64486111111 | 537.525166 | 8.1031 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.993887953915085 |
| R-squared | 0.987813264937514 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.984021836251407 |
| F-TEST (value) | 260.53853223119 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 14 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 45 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 34478.3144177152 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 53493937428.9072 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 921365 | 906696.334444445 | 14668.6655555549 |
| 2 | 987921 | 948189.334444444 | 39731.6655555558 |
| 3 | 1132614 | 1157059.33444444 | -24445.3344444442 |
| 4 | 1332224 | 1328477.13444444 | 3746.86555555624 |
| 5 | 1418133 | 1423434.33444444 | -5301.3344444448 |
| 6 | 1411549 | 1438976.93444444 | -27427.9344444444 |
| 7 | 1695920 | 1692946.53444445 | 2973.46555555489 |
| 8 | 1636173 | 1588816.93444444 | 47356.0655555555 |
| 9 | 1539653 | 1549690.04944444 | -10037.049444444 |
| 10 | 1395314 | 1391268.24944444 | 4045.75055555558 |
| 11 | 1127575 | 1116677.64944445 | 10897.3505555551 |
| 12 | 1036076 | 1004601.64944444 | 31474.3505555556 |
| 13 | 989236 | 958964.072777777 | 30271.9272222226 |
| 14 | 1008380 | 1000457.07277778 | 7922.92722222221 |
| 15 | 1207763 | 1209327.07277778 | -1564.07277777785 |
| 16 | 1368839 | 1380744.87277778 | -11905.8727777779 |
| 17 | 1469798 | 1475702.07277778 | -5904.07277777768 |
| 18 | 1498721 | 1491244.67277778 | 7476.3272222222 |
| 19 | 1761769 | 1745214.27277778 | 16554.7272222225 |
| 20 | 1653214 | 1641084.67277778 | 12129.3272222223 |
| 21 | 1599104 | 1601957.78777778 | -2853.78777777782 |
| 22 | 1421179 | 1443535.98777778 | -22356.9877777778 |
| 23 | 1163995 | 1168945.38777778 | -4950.3877777777 |
| 24 | 1037735 | 1056869.38777778 | -19134.3877777778 |
| 25 | 1015407 | 1011231.81111111 | 4175.18888888898 |
| 26 | 1039210 | 1052724.81111111 | -13514.8111111112 |
| 27 | 1258049 | 1261594.81111111 | -3545.81111111128 |
| 28 | 1469445 | 1433012.61111111 | 36432.3888888887 |
| 29 | 1552346 | 1527969.81111111 | 24376.188888889 |
| 30 | 1549144 | 1543512.41111111 | 5631.58888888884 |
| 31 | 1785895 | 1797482.01111111 | -11587.0111111109 |
| 32 | 1662335 | 1693352.41111111 | -31017.4111111111 |
| 33 | 1629440 | 1654225.52611111 | -24785.5261111112 |
| 34 | 1467430 | 1495803.72611111 | -28373.7261111111 |
| 35 | 1202209 | 1221213.12611111 | -19004.1261111110 |
| 36 | 1076982 | 1109137.12611111 | -32155.1261111112 |
| 37 | 1039367 | 1115932.52166667 | -76565.5216666665 |
| 38 | 1063449 | 1157425.52166667 | -93976.5216666667 |
| 39 | 1335135 | 1366295.52166667 | -31160.5216666667 |
| 40 | 1491602 | 1537713.32166667 | -46111.3216666668 |
| 41 | 1591972 | 1632670.52166667 | -40698.5216666666 |
| 42 | 1641248 | 1648213.12166667 | -6965.12166666665 |
| 43 | 1898849 | 1902182.72166667 | -3333.72166666657 |
| 44 | 1798580 | 1798053.12166667 | 526.878333333297 |
| 45 | 1762444 | 1758926.23666667 | 3517.7633333331 |
| 46 | 1622044 | 1600504.43666667 | 21539.5633333333 |
| 47 | 1368955 | 1325913.83666667 | 43041.1633333335 |
| 48 | 1262973 | 1213837.83666667 | 49135.1633333333 |
| 49 | 1195650 | 1168200.26 | 27449.7400000001 |
| 50 | 1269530 | 1209693.26 | 59836.7399999999 |
| 51 | 1479279 | 1418563.26 | 60715.74 |
| 52 | 1607819 | 1589981.06 | 17837.9399999998 |
| 53 | 1712466 | 1684938.26 | 27527.7400000000 |
| 54 | 1721766 | 1700480.86 | 21285.1400000000 |
| 55 | 1949843 | 1954450.46 | -4607.45999999989 |
| 56 | 1821326 | 1850320.86 | -28994.8600000001 |
| 57 | 1757802 | 1723643.4 | 34158.5999999999 |
| 58 | 1590367 | 1565221.6 | 25145.4 |
| 59 | 1260647 | 1290631 | -29983.9999999999 |
| 60 | 1149235 | 1178555 | -29320 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 18 | 0.219946285219054 | 0.439892570438108 | 0.780053714780946 |
| 19 | 0.113648087708745 | 0.227296175417491 | 0.886351912291255 |
| 20 | 0.122583449611831 | 0.245166899223662 | 0.877416550388169 |
| 21 | 0.0620405012208582 | 0.124081002441716 | 0.937959498779142 |
| 22 | 0.0401598164000995 | 0.080319632800199 | 0.9598401835999 |
| 23 | 0.0211115947503885 | 0.0422231895007770 | 0.978888405249611 |
| 24 | 0.0273107983854356 | 0.0546215967708711 | 0.972689201614564 |
| 25 | 0.0152690465467333 | 0.0305380930934666 | 0.984730953453267 |
| 26 | 0.0101534396727774 | 0.0203068793455548 | 0.989846560327223 |
| 27 | 0.00638239210757405 | 0.0127647842151481 | 0.993617607892426 |
| 28 | 0.0200065939812660 | 0.0400131879625319 | 0.979993406018734 |
| 29 | 0.0283628415086551 | 0.0567256830173102 | 0.971637158491345 |
| 30 | 0.0221569912430821 | 0.0443139824861641 | 0.977843008756918 |
| 31 | 0.0200941507504292 | 0.0401883015008583 | 0.97990584924957 |
| 32 | 0.0518074839583102 | 0.103614967916620 | 0.94819251604169 |
| 33 | 0.0301699661915055 | 0.060339932383011 | 0.969830033808494 |
| 34 | 0.0172051141287687 | 0.0344102282575375 | 0.982794885871231 |
| 35 | 0.00928334314555144 | 0.0185666862911029 | 0.990716656854449 |
| 36 | 0.00568916141770414 | 0.0113783228354083 | 0.994310838582296 |
| 37 | 0.00367916438445057 | 0.00735832876890115 | 0.99632083561555 |
| 38 | 0.0185469183373142 | 0.0370938366746285 | 0.981453081662686 |
| 39 | 0.0594084928536995 | 0.118816985707399 | 0.9405915071463 |
| 40 | 0.0490966776683569 | 0.0981933553367137 | 0.950903322331643 |
| 41 | 0.0682286238102211 | 0.136457247620442 | 0.931771376189779 |
| 42 | 0.0735784926526052 | 0.147156985305210 | 0.926421507347395 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 1 | 0.04 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 12 | 0.48 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 17 | 0.68 | NOK |
