Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation

Y[t] = + 14.9840080784092 + 0.128775996030082X[t] + 0.322177095577494Y1[t] + 0.306776902898658Y2[t] -0.0185667559362691Y3[t] + 0.0387471558376612Y4[t] + 1.23353128598870M1[t] + 2.06185157166443M2[t] -0.0664360866287527M3[t] -2.62061359157391M4[t] -1.34841144304865M5[t] + 0.113812162922448M6[t] + 0.0743039899866369M7[t] + 0.0868559660332346M8[t] + 0.37792301509465M9[t] -0.439014422798539M10[t] -2.34191110722947M11[t] -0.0278283031022919t + e[t]

Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
Variable	Parameter	S.D.	T-STAT H0: parameter = 0	2-tail p-value	1-tail p-value
(Intercept)	14.9840080784092	4.956196	3.0233	0.003184	0.001592
X	0.128775996030082	0.033352	3.8611	0.000201	0.000101
Y1	0.322177095577494	0.095707	3.3663	0.001086	0.000543
Y2	0.306776902898658	0.100827	3.0426	0.003003	0.001502
Y3	-0.0185667559362691	0.100796	-0.1842	0.854233	0.427116
Y4	0.0387471558376612	0.093565	0.4141	0.679681	0.339841
M1	1.23353128598870	1.4089	0.8755	0.383406	0.191703
M2	2.06185157166443	1.446469	1.4254	0.157176	0.078588
M3	-0.0664360866287527	1.471872	-0.0451	0.964089	0.482044
M4	-2.62061359157391	1.420501	-1.8449	0.068049	0.034024
M5	-1.34841144304865	1.383135	-0.9749	0.331989	0.165994
M6	0.113812162922448	1.401763	0.0812	0.935453	0.467727
M7	0.0743039899866369	1.420277	0.0523	0.958382	0.479191
M8	0.0868559660332346	1.411249	0.0615	0.951049	0.475524
M9	0.37792301509465	1.405604	0.2689	0.78859	0.394295
M10	-0.439014422798539	1.437652	-0.3054	0.760726	0.380363
M11	-2.34191110722947	1.423159	-1.6456	0.103023	0.051512
t	-0.0278283031022919	0.015057	-1.8482	0.067559	0.03378

Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.909930197363436
R-squared	0.827972964073862
Adjusted R-squared	0.798432968005737
F-TEST (value)	28.0288786147568
F-TEST (DF numerator)	17
F-TEST (DF denominator)	99
p-value	0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation	2.98603176154760
Sum Squared Residuals	882.722182416138

Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or Index	Actuals	Interpolation Forecast	Residuals Prediction Error
1	64	62.8381842613397	1.16181573866032
2	69	64.3668578732581	4.63314212674191
3	69	64.2221035503226	4.77789644967742
4	65	63.3802525644738	1.61974743552617
5	56	63.7581882320258	-7.7581882320258
6	58	61.9034978224413	-3.90349782244125
7	53	59.6650144391852	-6.66501443918521
8	62	58.406966628055	3.59303337194503
9	55	58.6198488370661	-3.6198488370661
10	60	58.7087156365329	1.29128436346708
11	59	56.138153216042	2.861846783958
12	58	60.2714111292079	-2.27141112920789
13	53	60.7416482351333	-7.74164823513333
14	57	58.2914684196842	-1.29146841968424
15	57	55.741219930174	1.25878006982603
16	53	53.9253043734445	-0.925304373444513
17	54	53.9992950217144	0.000704978285632499
18	53	54.6837484319167	-1.68374843191669
19	57	54.4177267948847	2.58227320511534
20	57	54.566946587803	2.43305341219704
21	55	55.2131748849201	-0.213174884920069
22	49	52.0657288208259	-3.06572882082588
23	50	47.6146000813510	2.38539991864905
24	49	50.6365240080476	-1.63652400804760
25	54	53.1484929824983	0.851507017501724
26	58	55.2595958411585	2.74040415884154
27	58	56.3697146764304	1.63028532356958
28	52	54.3681315603383	-2.36813156033827
29	56	54.1852395758297	1.81476042417025
30	52	55.2226704669672	-3.22267046696723
31	59	54.561253775681	4.43874622431901
32	53	54.6234795671517	-1.62347956715167
33	52	55.4591257030622	-3.45912570306223
34	53	52.4241175262529	0.575882473747049
35	51	51.0201993539099	-0.0201993539098883
36	50	51.8813567184805	-1.88135671848047
37	56	51.0638069199775	4.93619308002252
38	52	53.1801372527372	-1.18013725273718
39	46	50.3580628064139	-4.35806280641388
40	48	46.654931054363	1.34506894563704
41	46	47.9111796045306	-1.91117960453058
42	48	48.6273064541583	-0.627306454158276
43	48	47.9348259284891	0.0651740715109061
44	49	48.9052832228387	0.0947167771612615
45	53	50.4062792090681	2.59372079093185
46	48	49.8179571086257	-1.81795710862572
47	51	49.1589754472545	1.84102455274554
48	48	50.8701851557134	-2.87018515571341
49	50	52.7926139477156	-2.79261394771563
50	55	53.4540213538412	1.54597864615878
51	52	53.4367344193922	-1.43673441939215
52	53	50.8823788716297	2.11762112837025
53	52	50.9981556518079	1.00184434819212
54	55	53.6967947772356	1.30320522276438
55	53	52.9954204973114	0.00457950268864583
56	53	53.8285385836909	-0.828538583690902
57	56	53.2550001041762	2.74499989582384
58	54	52.6287086570881	1.37129134291189
59	52	51.0252418714506	0.974758128549368
60	55	52.2832684028769	2.71673159712314
61	54	53.995323846084	0.00467615391604688
62	59	55.6111606340333	3.38883936596674
63	56	55.1410626522628	0.85893734773721
64	56	52.3597863232148	3.64021367678517
65	51	51.264488564122	-0.264488564121994
66	53	51.2086584400704	1.79134155992963
67	52	49.8779981811208	2.12200181887918
68	51	50.8908123241167	0.109187675883303
69	46	49.006467820238	-3.00646782023800
70	49	48.0141887144591	0.985811285540944
71	46	45.4959300992636	0.504069900736368
72	55	48.3330029333183	6.66699706668169
73	57	51.6548610087993	5.34513899120068
74	53	55.9038650479074	-2.90386504790738
75	52	52.4029242509696	-0.402924250969596
76	53	48.5832246264164	4.41677537358357
77	50	49.9947599999386	0.00524000006136917
78	54	51.1480830356796	2.85191696432043
79	53	51.7781383095718	1.22186169042822
80	50	52.1183599420293	-2.11835994202929
81	51	51.1753339991594	-0.175333999159375
82	52	50.6786260005128	1.32137399948718
83	47	49.2650321273968	-2.26503212739681
84	51	48.9812141688152	2.01878583118481
85	49	50.7345773956002	-1.73457739560016
86	53	52.3781797301623	0.621820269837660
87	52	50.2428875542559	1.75711244574411
88	45	49.6593663696593	-4.65936636965934
89	53	47.9324103156606	5.06758968433937
90	51	50.0991154381758	0.900884561824224
91	48	51.5465321417979	-3.54653214179793
92	48	48.2436466235578	-0.243646623557837
93	48	47.9336654193948	0.0663345806051861
94	48	47.1958816305629	0.8041183694371
95	40	43.4748272271256	-3.47482722712563
96	43	43.9841492428134	-0.98414924281335
97	40	43.4446162971828	-3.44461629718281
98	39	44.8625457333302	-5.86254573333022
99	39	41.3557964452113	-2.35579644521135
100	36	37.9950754894366	-1.99507548943662
101	41	37.4025873603699	3.5974126396301
102	39	38.8449102964421	0.155089703557867
103	40	39.3364764234609	0.663523576539106
104	39	40.1085080992919	-1.10850809929187
105	46	40.8447679356932	5.15523206430684
106	40	41.4660759051396	-1.46607590513964
107	37	39.807040576206	-2.80704057620599
108	37	38.7588882407270	-1.75888824072695
109	44	40.5858751056694	3.41412489433064
110	41	42.6921681138876	-1.69216811388761
111	40	41.7294937145674	-1.72949371456736
112	36	39.1915487670235	-3.19154876702346
113	38	39.5536956740005	-1.55369567400047
114	43	40.5652148369131	2.43478516308691
115	42	42.8866135084973	-0.886613508497264
116	45	45.3074584214651	-0.307458421465081
117	46	46.0863360872219	-0.0863360872219225

Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-values	Alternative Hypothesis
breakpoint index	greater	2-sided	less
21	0.285994658454794	0.571989316909589	0.714005341545206
22	0.197032586853822	0.394065173707644	0.802967413146178
23	0.187265392839909	0.374530785679818	0.812734607160091
24	0.197075657448654	0.394151314897308	0.802924342551346
25	0.76561012781588	0.468779744368241	0.234389872184121
26	0.726925958284102	0.546148083431795	0.273074041715898
27	0.665740166878643	0.668519666242714	0.334259833121357
28	0.609538096646668	0.780923806706665	0.390461903353332
29	0.91043181655199	0.179136366896019	0.0895681834480097
30	0.895514289275396	0.208971421449208	0.104485710724604
31	0.91520285031009	0.169594299379820	0.0847971496899102
32	0.88940657469206	0.221186850615881	0.110593425307940
33	0.875808850902646	0.248382298194709	0.124191149097354
34	0.946139797343069	0.107720405313863	0.0538602026569314
35	0.936440384041047	0.127119231917905	0.0635596159589526
36	0.917977824018565	0.164044351962871	0.0820221759814355
37	0.960378564633657	0.0792428707326858	0.0396214353663429
38	0.95812092739511	0.0837581452097795	0.0418790726048898
39	0.987407646003622	0.0251847079927557	0.0125923539963778
40	0.984822637136238	0.0303547257275237	0.0151773628637619
41	0.981084712760985	0.0378305744780301	0.0189152872390150
42	0.975151776181413	0.0496964476371745	0.0248482238185873
43	0.96462487167666	0.070750256646678	0.035375128323339
44	0.95256423749455	0.0948715250108984	0.0474357625054492
45	0.955264103234424	0.0894717935311512	0.0447358967655756
46	0.946394500614695	0.107210998770611	0.0536054993853054
47	0.92959029430388	0.140819411392241	0.0704097056961207
48	0.9447021046715	0.110595790656998	0.0552978953284992
49	0.95589562118474	0.088208757630518	0.044104378815259
50	0.94027043020474	0.119459139590519	0.0597295697952597
51	0.934566993194217	0.130866013611566	0.0654330068057828
52	0.921123888724892	0.157752222550216	0.0788761112751082
53	0.928620006341283	0.142759987317434	0.0713799936587169
54	0.939337715069179	0.121324569861642	0.060662284930821
55	0.931444914501139	0.137110170997723	0.0685550854988615
56	0.928311545923896	0.143376908152209	0.0716884540761044
57	0.934965737675633	0.130068524648735	0.0650342623243674
58	0.922821586230855	0.154356827538290	0.0771784137691452
59	0.897882139016948	0.204235721966104	0.102117860983052
60	0.901415334341775	0.197169331316450	0.0985846656582248
61	0.890818103620244	0.218363792759512	0.109181896379756
62	0.879445083376436	0.241109833247127	0.120554916623564
63	0.846041518397792	0.307916963204415	0.153958481602208
64	0.853531968306343	0.292936063387314	0.146468031693657
65	0.826369120946401	0.347261758107197	0.173630879053599
66	0.790993983276362	0.418012033447275	0.209006016723638
67	0.758386934991663	0.483226130016674	0.241613065008337
68	0.711561418085557	0.576877163828887	0.288438581914443
69	0.796717649525641	0.406564700948717	0.203282350474359
70	0.769672643785784	0.460654712428433	0.230327356214216
71	0.723666239786245	0.55266752042751	0.276333760213755
72	0.77703479683099	0.44593040633802	0.22296520316901
73	0.806924960521783	0.386150078956435	0.193075039478217
74	0.817485563228481	0.365028873543038	0.182514436771519
75	0.777110156237569	0.445779687524862	0.222889843762431
76	0.916522183803596	0.166955632392809	0.0834778161964043
77	0.890400047995582	0.219199904008835	0.109599952004418
78	0.859043316720632	0.281913366558737	0.140956683279368
79	0.828172337797189	0.343655324405623	0.171827662202811
80	0.803463422848169	0.393073154303663	0.196536577151831
81	0.798713613416453	0.402572773167094	0.201286386583547
82	0.739221403125765	0.52155719374847	0.260778596874235
83	0.698049912818354	0.603900174363292	0.301950087181646
84	0.646949721848628	0.706100556302745	0.353050278151372
85	0.637409261866514	0.725181476266972	0.362590738133486
86	0.614648291134261	0.770703417731478	0.385351708865739
87	0.660508414074052	0.678983171851896	0.339491585925948
88	0.640745115038416	0.718509769923167	0.359254884961583
89	0.759561789100774	0.480876421798453	0.240438210899226
90	0.729422641981314	0.541154716037372	0.270577358018686
91	0.661490872268095	0.67701825546381	0.338509127731905
92	0.659757934518747	0.680484130962505	0.340242065481253
93	0.54353905074617	0.912921898507659	0.456460949253829
94	0.589991058356926	0.820017883286147	0.410008941643074
95	0.694968403050399	0.610063193899202	0.305031596949601
96	0.902659683107464	0.194680633785073	0.0973403168925365

Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description	# significant tests	% significant tests	OK/NOK
1% type I error level	0	0	OK
5% type I error level	4	0.0526315789473684	NOK
10% type I error level	10	0.131578947368421	NOK