| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| TWIB[t] = + 598405.587863502 -13369.6576865744GI[t] -7413.8812149598M1[t] -10484.0553473849M2[t] -19514.0399922482M3[t] -24596.5303423353M4[t] -33088.0206924225M5[t] -29609.6948248475M6[t] + 24292.9929021796M7[t] + 33102.7148605492M8[t] + 26340.9025875762M9[t] + 12537.7512760462M10[t] -3739.69913747457M11[t] -291.865804141256t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 598405.587863502 | 16560.028356 | 36.1355 | 0 | 0 |
| GI | -13369.6576865744 | 5163.836716 | -2.5891 | 0.012145 | 0.006073 |
| M1 | -7413.8812149598 | 19487.000702 | -0.3805 | 0.704999 | 0.3525 |
| M2 | -10484.0553473849 | 19465.381514 | -0.5386 | 0.592224 | 0.296112 |
| M3 | -19514.0399922482 | 19448.07854 | -1.0034 | 0.31984 | 0.15992 |
| M4 | -24596.5303423353 | 19434.704041 | -1.2656 | 0.210717 | 0.105359 |
| M5 | -33088.0206924225 | 19424.80765 | -1.7034 | 0.093848 | 0.046924 |
| M6 | -29609.6948248475 | 19430.202191 | -1.5239 | 0.132968 | 0.066484 |
| M7 | 24292.9929021796 | 19419.798592 | 1.2509 | 0.215979 | 0.10799 |
| M8 | 33102.7148605492 | 19390.963664 | 1.7071 | 0.093148 | 0.046574 |
| M9 | 26340.9025875762 | 19384.311827 | 1.3589 | 0.179447 | 0.089723 |
| M10 | 12537.7512760462 | 19382.040053 | 0.6469 | 0.520265 | 0.260132 |
| M11 | -3739.69913747457 | 19370.693803 | -0.1931 | 0.847587 | 0.423793 |
| t | -291.865804141256 | 256.847858 | -1.1363 | 0.260489 | 0.130244 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.67157671481839 |
| R-squared | 0.451015283886261 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.327966985446975 |
| F-TEST (value) | 3.66535165139889 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 13 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 58 |
| p-value | 0.000304387502449988 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 33548.0762906503 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 65277458522.591 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 519164 | 578667.148926483 | -59503.1489264833 |
| 2 | 517009 | 569957.245915287 | -52948.2459152873 |
| 3 | 509933 | 559298.429697625 | -49365.4296976253 |
| 4 | 509127 | 552587.107774739 | -43460.1077747394 |
| 5 | 500857 | 549151.614695141 | -48294.6146951408 |
| 6 | 506971 | 545653.245915287 | -38682.2459152873 |
| 7 | 569323 | 600601.03360683 | -31278.0336068305 |
| 8 | 579714 | 607781.923992401 | -28067.9239924015 |
| 9 | 577992 | 599391.28014663 | -21399.2801466299 |
| 10 | 565464 | 586633.228799616 | -21169.2287996160 |
| 11 | 547344 | 568726.946813297 | -21382.9468132965 |
| 12 | 554788 | 573511.745915287 | -18723.7459152873 |
| 13 | 562325 | 565805.998896186 | -3480.99889618625 |
| 14 | 560854 | 566454.856265592 | -5600.85626559224 |
| 15 | 555332 | 559806.937353902 | -4474.93735390253 |
| 16 | 543599 | 547747.752356387 | -4148.75235638693 |
| 17 | 536662 | 534953.498896186 | 1708.50110381378 |
| 18 | 542722 | 542150.856265592 | 571.14373440777 |
| 19 | 593530 | 594424.71241982 | -894.712419820626 |
| 20 | 610763 | 604279.534342706 | 6483.46565729357 |
| 21 | 612613 | 599899.787802907 | 12713.2121970929 |
| 22 | 611324 | 576446.010306634 | 34877.9896933663 |
| 23 | 594167 | 562550.625626287 | 31616.3743737134 |
| 24 | 595454 | 568672.390496935 | 26781.6095030652 |
| 25 | 590865 | 559629.677709176 | 31235.3222908237 |
| 26 | 589379 | 553593.706235295 | 35785.2937647049 |
| 27 | 584428 | 537587.026943003 | 46840.9730569968 |
| 28 | 573100 | 537560.533863405 | 35539.4661365954 |
| 29 | 567456 | 528777.177709176 | 38678.8222908237 |
| 30 | 569028 | 529289.706235295 | 39738.2937647049 |
| 31 | 620735 | 581563.562389523 | 39171.4376104765 |
| 32 | 628884 | 590081.418543752 | 38802.5814562482 |
| 33 | 628232 | 584364.706235295 | 43867.2937647049 |
| 34 | 612117 | 578291.483731568 | 33825.5162684316 |
| 35 | 595404 | 557711.270207934 | 37692.7297920659 |
| 36 | 597141 | 557148.206235295 | 39992.7937647050 |
| 37 | 593408 | 553453.356522166 | 39954.6434778337 |
| 38 | 590072 | 550091.3165856 | 39980.6834144 |
| 39 | 579799 | 550128.226517197 | 29670.7734828025 |
| 40 | 574205 | 539406.007288339 | 34798.9927116607 |
| 41 | 572775 | 527948.719596796 | 44826.2804032039 |
| 42 | 572942 | 533809.111197545 | 39132.8888024554 |
| 43 | 619567 | 588756.898889088 | 30810.1011109121 |
| 44 | 625809 | 595937.789274659 | 29871.2107253412 |
| 45 | 619916 | 587547.145428887 | 32368.8545711128 |
| 46 | 587625 | 572115.162544559 | 15509.8374554415 |
| 47 | 565742 | 555545.846326896 | 10196.1536731036 |
| 48 | 557274 | 558993.67966023 | -1719.67966022974 |
| 49 | 560576 | 549950.966872471 | 10625.0331275287 |
| 50 | 548854 | 545251.961167248 | 3602.03883275252 |
| 51 | 531673 | 538604.042255558 | -6931.04225555776 |
| 52 | 525919 | 533229.686101329 | -7310.68610132938 |
| 53 | 511038 | 532468.124559046 | -21430.1245590457 |
| 54 | 498662 | 535654.584622479 | -36992.5846224793 |
| 55 | 555362 | 587928.440776708 | -32566.4407767077 |
| 56 | 564591 | 599120.228468251 | -34529.228468251 |
| 57 | 541657 | 590729.584622479 | -49072.5846224793 |
| 58 | 527070 | 569949.738663521 | -42879.7386635209 |
| 59 | 509846 | 548032.559371229 | -38186.559371229 |
| 60 | 514258 | 546132.529629933 | -31874.5296299325 |
| 61 | 516922 | 535752.851073517 | -18830.8510735166 |
| 62 | 507561 | 528379.913830978 | -20818.9138309780 |
| 63 | 492622 | 508362.337232714 | -15740.3372327138 |
| 64 | 490243 | 505661.9126158 | -15418.9126158003 |
| 65 | 469357 | 484845.864543655 | -15488.8645436549 |
| 66 | 477580 | 481347.495763801 | -3767.49576380139 |
| 67 | 528379 | 533621.35191803 | -5242.35191802978 |
| 68 | 533590 | 546150.10537823 | -12560.1053782305 |
| 69 | 517945 | 536422.495763801 | -18477.4957638014 |
| 70 | 506174 | 526338.375954102 | -20164.3759541025 |
| 71 | 501866 | 521801.751654357 | -19935.7516543574 |
| 72 | 516141 | 530597.44806232 | -14456.4480623205 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 17 | 0.00808724454638726 | 0.0161744890927745 | 0.991912755453613 |
| 18 | 0.00265647487573816 | 0.00531294975147632 | 0.997343525124262 |
| 19 | 0.00803680610919854 | 0.0160736122183971 | 0.991963193890801 |
| 20 | 0.00465637896443368 | 0.00931275792886736 | 0.995343621035566 |
| 21 | 0.00201115553832314 | 0.00402231107664628 | 0.997988844461677 |
| 22 | 0.00125395422729176 | 0.00250790845458352 | 0.998746045772708 |
| 23 | 0.000889657217519259 | 0.00177931443503852 | 0.99911034278248 |
| 24 | 0.000417282923170164 | 0.000834565846340328 | 0.99958271707683 |
| 25 | 0.000351472126253355 | 0.00070294425250671 | 0.999648527873747 |
| 26 | 0.000215057191316989 | 0.000430114382633979 | 0.999784942808683 |
| 27 | 8.63159391210599e-05 | 0.000172631878242120 | 0.999913684060879 |
| 28 | 8.79361843314385e-05 | 0.000175872368662877 | 0.999912063815669 |
| 29 | 5.57114321968692e-05 | 0.000111422864393738 | 0.999944288567803 |
| 30 | 5.95757155782346e-05 | 0.000119151431156469 | 0.999940424284422 |
| 31 | 0.000136818015193506 | 0.000273636030387012 | 0.999863181984807 |
| 32 | 0.000741355429419976 | 0.00148271085883995 | 0.99925864457058 |
| 33 | 0.00159449304462929 | 0.00318898608925858 | 0.99840550695537 |
| 34 | 0.0139928680402821 | 0.0279857360805642 | 0.986007131959718 |
| 35 | 0.0311537856576396 | 0.0623075713152792 | 0.96884621434236 |
| 36 | 0.084820634428551 | 0.169641268857102 | 0.915179365571449 |
| 37 | 0.135340174813374 | 0.270680349626749 | 0.864659825186626 |
| 38 | 0.161773549143238 | 0.323547098286475 | 0.838226450856762 |
| 39 | 0.147902150490534 | 0.295804300981069 | 0.852097849509466 |
| 40 | 0.122007404304796 | 0.244014808609592 | 0.877992595695204 |
| 41 | 0.104819576594167 | 0.209639153188335 | 0.895180423405833 |
| 42 | 0.112028532744325 | 0.22405706548865 | 0.887971467255675 |
| 43 | 0.117451605605601 | 0.234903211211202 | 0.882548394394399 |
| 44 | 0.138952284922714 | 0.277904569845428 | 0.861047715077286 |
| 45 | 0.444887139100843 | 0.889774278201685 | 0.555112860899157 |
| 46 | 0.781547501187898 | 0.436904997624205 | 0.218452498812102 |
| 47 | 0.892270791086147 | 0.215458417827707 | 0.107729208913853 |
| 48 | 0.924991186875362 | 0.150017626249276 | 0.0750088131246382 |
| 49 | 0.955766492580639 | 0.0884670148387224 | 0.0442335074193612 |
| 50 | 0.98150809729385 | 0.0369838054123025 | 0.0184919027061512 |
| 51 | 0.991434836389865 | 0.0171303272202693 | 0.00856516361013466 |
| 52 | 0.998117415635155 | 0.00376516872969093 | 0.00188258436484547 |
| 53 | 0.999905850238906 | 0.000188299522188247 | 9.41497610941233e-05 |
| 54 | 0.999812012393342 | 0.000375975213316028 | 0.000187987606658014 |
| 55 | 0.998168153449488 | 0.00366369310102372 | 0.00183184655051186 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 19 | 0.487179487179487 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 24 | 0.615384615384615 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 26 | 0.666666666666667 | NOK |
