Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
Y[t] = + 701.25 + 79.75X[t] -21.4833333333334M1[t] -41.5666666666667M2[t] + 42.75M3[t] -42.1333333333332M4[t] -23.0166666666668M5[t] + 107.7M6[t] -267.183333333333M7[t] -344.066666666667M8[t] + 122.25M9[t] + 69.3666666666667M10[t] -29.9166666666666M11[t] -0.716666666666665t + e[t] |
Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
(Intercept) | 701.25 | 29.976568 | 23.3933 | 0 | 0 |
X | 79.75 | 24.640587 | 3.2365 | 0.002246 | 0.001123 |
M1 | -21.4833333333334 | 34.735557 | -0.6185 | 0.539308 | 0.269654 |
M2 | -41.5666666666667 | 34.633443 | -1.2002 | 0.236211 | 0.118105 |
M3 | 42.75 | 34.540794 | 1.2377 | 0.22212 | 0.11106 |
M4 | -42.1333333333332 | 34.457687 | -1.2228 | 0.22765 | 0.113825 |
M5 | -23.0166666666668 | 34.38419 | -0.6694 | 0.506589 | 0.253294 |
M6 | 107.7 | 34.320366 | 3.1381 | 0.002966 | 0.001483 |
M7 | -267.183333333333 | 34.266268 | -7.7973 | 0 | 0 |
M8 | -344.066666666667 | 34.221942 | -10.054 | 0 | 0 |
M9 | 122.25 | 34.187427 | 3.5759 | 0.000834 | 0.000417 |
M10 | 69.3666666666667 | 34.162751 | 2.0305 | 0.048113 | 0.024056 |
M11 | -29.9166666666666 | 34.147938 | -0.8761 | 0.385533 | 0.192767 |
t | -0.716666666666665 | 0.580784 | -1.234 | 0.223484 | 0.111742 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
Multiple R | 0.944260037716194 |
R-squared | 0.891627018827788 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.860999871974771 |
F-TEST (value) | 29.1123108236891 |
F-TEST (DF numerator) | 13 |
F-TEST (DF denominator) | 46 |
p-value | 0 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
Residual Standard Deviation | 53.9848207329173 |
Sum Squared Residuals | 134060.6 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
1 | 627 | 679.05 | -52.0500000000007 |
2 | 696 | 658.25 | 37.7499999999999 |
3 | 825 | 741.85 | 83.15 |
4 | 677 | 656.25 | 20.7500000000000 |
5 | 656 | 674.65 | -18.6499999999999 |
6 | 785 | 804.65 | -19.6500000000000 |
7 | 412 | 429.050000000000 | -17.0499999999995 |
8 | 352 | 351.45 | 0.550000000000007 |
9 | 839 | 817.05 | 21.9499999999998 |
10 | 729 | 763.45 | -34.4500000000000 |
11 | 696 | 663.45 | 32.5500000000002 |
12 | 641 | 692.65 | -51.65 |
13 | 695 | 670.45 | 24.5500000000002 |
14 | 638 | 649.65 | -11.6500000000000 |
15 | 762 | 733.25 | 28.75 |
16 | 635 | 647.65 | -12.65 |
17 | 721 | 666.05 | 54.95 |
18 | 854 | 796.05 | 57.95 |
19 | 418 | 420.45 | -2.45000000000004 |
20 | 367 | 342.85 | 24.1500000000001 |
21 | 824 | 808.45 | 15.5500000000001 |
22 | 687 | 754.85 | -67.85 |
23 | 601 | 654.85 | -53.85 |
24 | 676 | 684.05 | -8.04999999999999 |
25 | 740 | 661.85 | 78.1500000000001 |
26 | 691 | 641.05 | 49.95 |
27 | 683 | 724.65 | -41.65 |
28 | 594 | 639.05 | -45.05 |
29 | 729 | 657.45 | 71.55 |
30 | 731 | 787.45 | -56.45 |
31 | 386 | 411.85 | -25.8500000000001 |
32 | 331 | 334.25 | -3.24999999999997 |
33 | 707 | 799.85 | -92.85 |
34 | 715 | 746.25 | -31.25 |
35 | 657 | 646.25 | 10.7500000000000 |
36 | 653 | 675.45 | -22.45 |
37 | 642 | 653.25 | -11.2499999999998 |
38 | 643 | 632.45 | 10.5500000000000 |
39 | 718 | 716.05 | 1.94999999999998 |
40 | 654 | 630.45 | 23.5500000000000 |
41 | 632 | 648.85 | -16.8500000000001 |
42 | 731 | 778.85 | -47.85 |
43 | 392 | 403.25 | -11.2500000000001 |
44 | 344 | 325.65 | 18.35 |
45 | 792 | 791.25 | 0.750000000000033 |
46 | 852 | 737.65 | 114.35 |
47 | 649 | 637.65 | 11.3500000000000 |
48 | 629 | 666.85 | -37.85 |
49 | 685 | 724.4 | -39.3999999999998 |
50 | 617 | 703.6 | -86.6 |
51 | 715 | 787.2 | -72.2 |
52 | 715 | 701.6 | 13.4000000000000 |
53 | 629 | 720 | -91 |
54 | 916 | 850 | 66 |
55 | 531 | 474.4 | 56.5999999999999 |
56 | 357 | 396.8 | -39.8000000000001 |
57 | 917 | 862.4 | 54.6000000000001 |
58 | 828 | 808.8 | 19.2000000000000 |
59 | 708 | 708.8 | -0.80000000000003 |
60 | 858 | 738 | 120 |
Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
17 | 0.512243420649432 | 0.975513158701135 | 0.487756579350568 |
18 | 0.46846025111211 | 0.93692050222422 | 0.53153974888789 |
19 | 0.316574125000237 | 0.633148250000474 | 0.683425874999763 |
20 | 0.209149195768766 | 0.418298391537532 | 0.790850804231234 |
21 | 0.138155484332008 | 0.276310968664017 | 0.861844515667992 |
22 | 0.105241455925740 | 0.210482911851480 | 0.89475854407426 |
23 | 0.131113477026555 | 0.26222695405311 | 0.868886522973445 |
24 | 0.0899832228121516 | 0.179966445624303 | 0.910016777187848 |
25 | 0.136281211662821 | 0.272562423325642 | 0.863718788337179 |
26 | 0.123735440026921 | 0.247470880053842 | 0.876264559973079 |
27 | 0.211623486406481 | 0.423246972812962 | 0.788376513593519 |
28 | 0.174762469704826 | 0.349524939409652 | 0.825237530295174 |
29 | 0.319374417199862 | 0.638748834399723 | 0.680625582800138 |
30 | 0.307959377919339 | 0.615918755838678 | 0.692040622080661 |
31 | 0.226212964370606 | 0.452425928741212 | 0.773787035629394 |
32 | 0.191372609390358 | 0.382745218780717 | 0.808627390609642 |
33 | 0.245217118038797 | 0.490434236077595 | 0.754782881961203 |
34 | 0.204883136361449 | 0.409766272722898 | 0.795116863638551 |
35 | 0.162225441609483 | 0.324450883218965 | 0.837774558390517 |
36 | 0.10627212562093 | 0.21254425124186 | 0.89372787437907 |
37 | 0.0675821922951926 | 0.135164384590385 | 0.932417807704807 |
38 | 0.0645889589774143 | 0.129177917954829 | 0.935411041022586 |
39 | 0.0555860074547207 | 0.111172014909441 | 0.94441399254528 |
40 | 0.0353528387500409 | 0.0707056775000819 | 0.96464716124996 |
41 | 0.0396102612727751 | 0.0792205225455503 | 0.960389738727225 |
42 | 0.0363420743778348 | 0.0726841487556695 | 0.963657925622165 |
43 | 0.0202466619172406 | 0.0404933238344812 | 0.97975333808276 |
Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
1% type I error level | 0 | 0 | OK |
5% type I error level | 1 | 0.0370370370370370 | OK |
10% type I error level | 4 | 0.148148148148148 | NOK |