| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.152823208325162 |
| beta | 0.147474162937433 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 129 | 124 | 5 |
| 4 | 99 | 130.876803415252 | -31.8768034152516 |
| 5 | 116 | 131.399552768518 | -15.3995527685179 |
| 6 | 168 | 134.093341398697 | 33.9066586013035 |
| 7 | 118 | 145.086433902012 | -27.0864339020116 |
| 8 | 129 | 146.147906503835 | -17.1479065038352 |
| 9 | 205 | 148.341746239256 | 56.6582537607441 |
| 10 | 147 | 163.091814142575 | -16.0918141425755 |
| 11 | 150 | 166.361314408516 | -16.3613144085161 |
| 12 | 267 | 169.220886069219 | 97.7791139307813 |
| 13 | 126 | 191.727458497205 | -65.7274584972051 |
| 14 | 129 | 187.765101009866 | -58.765101009866 |
| 15 | 124 | 183.542336352517 | -59.5423363525171 |
| 16 | 97 | 177.858858195858 | -80.8588581958583 |
| 17 | 102 | 167.095366307872 | -65.0953663078718 |
| 18 | 127 | 157.273816651726 | -30.273816651726 |
| 19 | 222 | 152.091512555264 | 69.9084874447363 |
| 20 | 214 | 163.79495035709 | 50.2050496429099 |
| 21 | 118 | 173.618740616409 | -55.6187406164089 |
| 22 | 141 | 166.016693770282 | -25.0166937702818 |
| 23 | 154 | 162.527536800942 | -8.52753680094168 |
| 24 | 226 | 161.366116557114 | 64.6338834428858 |
| 25 | 89 | 172.842143795057 | -83.8421437950573 |
| 26 | 77 | 159.737997994439 | -82.7379979944389 |
| 27 | 82 | 144.937885758919 | -62.9378857589193 |
| 28 | 97 | 131.745229190883 | -34.745229190883 |
| 29 | 127 | 122.077995126074 | 4.92200487392613 |
| 30 | 121 | 118.583764596877 | 2.41623540312274 |
| 31 | 117 | 114.761050182157 | 2.23894981784284 |
| 32 | 117 | 110.961702690435 | 6.03829730956465 |
| 33 | 106 | 107.879071644938 | -1.87907164493795 |
| 34 | 112 | 103.544133344615 | 8.45586665538512 |
| 35 | 134 | 100.979187354215 | 33.0208126457851 |
| 36 | 169 | 102.912540952811 | 66.087459047189 |
| 37 | 75 | 111.38868998095 | -36.3886899809497 |
| 38 | 108 | 103.383995957073 | 4.61600404292662 |
| 39 | 115 | 101.749803904766 | 13.2501960952339 |
| 40 | 85 | 101.733742742788 | -16.7337427427879 |
| 41 | 101 | 96.7583035452347 | 4.24169645476528 |
| 42 | 108 | 95.0839953885221 | 12.9160046114779 |
| 43 | 109 | 95.0264169618007 | 13.9735830381993 |
| 44 | 124 | 95.4453903378498 | 28.5546096621502 |
| 45 | 105 | 98.7362317767934 | 6.2637682232066 |
| 46 | 95 | 98.761684828785 | -3.76168482878495 |
| 47 | 135 | 97.1702371037051 | 37.8297628962949 |
| 48 | 164 | 102.787515183994 | 61.2124848160055 |
| 49 | 88 | 113.357790676834 | -25.3577906768345 |
| 50 | 85 | 110.1266183568 | -25.1266183568003 |
| 51 | 112 | 106.364484006244 | 5.63551599375556 |
| 52 | 87 | 107.430528021343 | -20.4305280213427 |
| 53 | 91 | 104.052623052806 | -13.052623052806 |
| 54 | 87 | 101.508060030129 | -14.5080600301295 |
| 55 | 87 | 98.414097422823 | -11.4140974228231 |
| 56 | 142 | 95.5357191754259 | 46.4642808245741 |
| 57 | 95 | 102.54968793916 | -7.54968793916002 |
| 58 | 108 | 101.138917800934 | 6.86108219906647 |
| 59 | 139 | 102.085079256316 | 36.914920743684 |
| 60 | 159 | 108.456133833816 | 50.5438661661844 |
| 61 | 61 | 118.049138683103 | -57.0491386831028 |
| 62 | 82 | 109.913691816814 | -27.9136918168143 |
| 63 | 124 | 105.601713292812 | 18.3982867071882 |
| 64 | 93 | 108.781930832383 | -15.781930832383 |
| 65 | 108 | 106.382932999056 | 1.61706700094427 |
| 66 | 75 | 106.679350442923 | -31.6793504429228 |
| 67 | 87 | 101.173329987367 | -14.1733299873671 |
| 68 | 103 | 98.0232046764737 | 4.97679532352632 |
| 69 | 90 | 97.9118273542362 | -7.91182735423615 |
| 70 | 108 | 95.6524567544646 | 12.3475432455354 |
| 71 | 123 | 96.7674706122127 | 26.2325293877873 |
| 72 | 129 | 100.595647567825 | 28.4043524321754 |
| 73 | 57 | 105.395891864019 | -48.3958918640192 |
| 74 | 65 | 97.368555237026 | -32.368555237026 |
| 75 | 67 | 91.0610621187327 | -24.0610621187327 |
| 76 | 71 | 85.4808711725545 | -14.4808711725545 |
| 77 | 76 | 81.0383934750891 | -5.03839347508912 |
| 78 | 67 | 77.925392848289 | -10.9253928482889 |
| 79 | 110 | 73.6664913246873 | 36.3335086753127 |
| 80 | 118 | 77.4487122872918 | 40.5512877127082 |
| 81 | 99 | 82.7894313962958 | 16.2105686037042 |
| 82 | 85 | 84.7756689983068 | 0.224331001693187 |
| 83 | 107 | 84.3238943352109 | 22.6761056647891 |
| 84 | 141 | 87.8143340670082 | 53.1856659329918 |
| 85 | 58 | 97.1660132852881 | -39.1660132852881 |
| 86 | 65 | 91.5215095567116 | -26.5215095567116 |
| 87 | 70 | 87.211651604308 | -17.211651604308 |
| 88 | 86 | 83.9366488502318 | 2.06335114976824 |
| 89 | 93 | 83.6538165818968 | 9.34618341810318 |
| 90 | 74 | 84.6946094790651 | -10.6946094790651 |
| 91 | 87 | 82.4316746174781 | 4.56832538252191 |
| 92 | 73 | 82.6042289477417 | -9.60422894774166 |
| 93 | 101 | 80.3944329879273 | 20.6055670120727 |
| 94 | 100 | 83.2657924152725 | 16.7342075847275 |
| 95 | 96 | 85.9226650548375 | 10.0773349451625 |
| 96 | 157 | 87.7893307418358 | 69.2106692581642 |
| 97 | 63 | 100.252776006629 | -37.2527760066291 |
| 98 | 115 | 95.6065524990148 | 19.3934475009852 |
| 99 | 70 | 100.054265940226 | -30.0542659402255 |
| 100 | 66 | 96.267873909996 | -30.267873909996 |
| 101 | 67 | 91.7666761812713 | -24.7666761812713 |
| 102 | 83 | 87.5480108006196 | -4.54801080061955 |
| 103 | 79 | 86.3167260530232 | -7.31672605302317 |
| 104 | 77 | 84.4974168291247 | -7.49741682912469 |
| 105 | 102 | 82.4815210188172 | 19.5184789811828 |
| 106 | 116 | 85.0341783087312 | 30.9658216912688 |
| 107 | 100 | 90.0341466621093 | 9.96585333789074 |
| 108 | 135 | 92.0494376447146 | 42.9505623552854 |
| 109 | 71 | 100.073554898544 | -29.0735548985441 |
| 110 | 60 | 96.435470968159 | -36.435470968159 |
| 111 | 89 | 90.8511518985503 | -1.85115189855031 |
| 112 | 74 | 90.5103991377743 | -16.5103991377743 |
| 113 | 73 | 87.5572704789984 | -14.5572704789984 |
| 114 | 91 | 84.5745410926405 | 6.42545890735946 |
| 115 | 86 | 84.9432733482468 | 1.05672665175322 |
| 116 | 74 | 84.5153546661178 | -10.5153546661178 |
| 117 | 87 | 82.0819638499783 | 4.91803615002172 |
| 118 | 87 | 82.1179934491259 | 4.88200655087414 |
| 119 | 109 | 82.2585449885855 | 26.7414550114145 |
| 120 | 137 | 86.3424124404373 | 50.6575875595627 |
| 121 | 43 | 95.2229140982885 | -52.2229140982885 |
| 122 | 69 | 87.20391481212 | -18.2039148121201 |
| 123 | 73 | 83.973537870898 | -10.973537870898 |
| 124 | 77 | 81.6008144988228 | -4.60081449882281 |
| 125 | 69 | 80.0983004177545 | -11.0983004177545 |
| 126 | 76 | 77.35269202735 | -1.35269202734997 |
| 127 | 78 | 76.0659525158704 | 1.93404748412962 |
| 128 | 70 | 75.325091627755 | -5.32509162775503 |
| 129 | 83 | 73.354851692913 | 9.64514830708693 |
| 130 | 65 | 73.8897891405026 | -8.88978914050257 |
| 131 | 110 | 71.3918045831791 | 38.6081954168209 |
| 132 | 132 | 77.0227456432757 | 54.9772543567243 |
| 133 | 54 | 86.3943072883557 | -32.3943072883557 |
| 134 | 55 | 81.6833806847044 | -26.6833806847044 |
| 135 | 66 | 77.243840189369 | -11.243840189369 |
| 136 | 65 | 74.9104120435154 | -9.91041204351536 |
| 137 | 60 | 72.5574070040354 | -12.5574070040354 |
| 138 | 65 | 69.5168674593012 | -4.5168674593012 |
| 139 | 96 | 67.6033101782577 | 28.3966898217423 |
| 140 | 55 | 71.3596979974331 | -16.3596979974331 |
| 141 | 71 | 67.9075647569084 | 3.09243524309156 |
| 142 | 63 | 67.4978646080997 | -4.49786460809969 |
| 143 | 74 | 65.8268199739596 | 8.17318002604037 |
| 144 | 106 | 66.2764078719013 | 39.7235921280987 |
| 145 | 34 | 72.4429004248403 | -38.4429004248403 |
| 146 | 47 | 65.7973329056275 | -18.7973329056275 |
| 147 | 56 | 61.7304196288082 | -5.73041962880821 |
| 148 | 53 | 59.5312847743102 | -6.53128477431024 |
| 149 | 53 | 57.062560473317 | -4.06256047331697 |
| 150 | 55 | 54.8795546864849 | 0.120445313515056 |
| 151 | 67 | 53.3385237976484 | 13.6614762023516 |
| 152 | 52 | 54.174771867893 | -2.17477186789298 |
| 153 | 46 | 52.541859834204 | -6.54185983420397 |
| 154 | 51 | 50.0941184057962 | 0.905881594203848 |
| 155 | 58 | 48.8049810007872 | 9.1950189992128 |
| 156 | 91 | 48.989848676552 | 42.010151323448 |
| 157 | 33 | 55.1364328793738 | -22.1364328793738 |
| 158 | 40 | 50.9810309846959 | -10.9810309846959 |
| 159 | 46 | 48.2829486894455 | -2.28294868944553 |
| 160 | 45 | 46.8626833384443 | -1.86268333844433 |
| 161 | 41 | 45.4646641080699 | -4.46466410806987 |
| 162 | 55 | 43.5683795739889 | 11.4316204260111 |
| 163 | 57 | 44.3590560992747 | 12.6409439007253 |
| 164 | 54 | 45.6194402715341 | 8.38055972846588 |
| 165 | 46 | 46.4176155189542 | -0.417615518954165 |
| 166 | 52 | 45.8618133984532 | 6.13818660154681 |
| 167 | 48 | 46.4462292165428 | 1.55377078345722 |
| 168 | 77 | 46.3650579707762 | 30.6349420292238 |
| 169 | 30 | 51.4185988483316 | -21.4185988483316 |
| 170 | 35 | 48.0344294741013 | -13.0344294741013 |
| 171 | 42 | 45.637792637953 | -3.63779263795298 |
| 172 | 48 | 44.595193330938 | 3.40480666906205 |
| 173 | 44 | 44.7056023892176 | -0.705602389217582 |
| 174 | 45 | 44.1719430516691 | 0.828056948330897 |
| 175 | 46 | 43.8913247671066 | 2.10867523289338 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 176 | 43.8539388921958 | -15.2163826921205 | 102.924260476512 |
| 177 | 43.4942985028783 | -16.4773925973345 | 103.465989603091 |
| 178 | 43.1346581135609 | -17.9657320511246 | 104.235048278246 |
| 179 | 42.7750177242435 | -19.6974516049384 | 105.247487053425 |
| 180 | 42.4153773349261 | -21.6845732756973 | 106.515327945549 |
| 181 | 42.0557369456086 | -23.9350586876601 | 108.046532578877 |
| 182 | 41.6960965562912 | -26.4529932513262 | 109.845186363909 |
| 183 | 41.3364561669738 | -29.2389529045126 | 111.91186523846 |
| 184 | 40.9768157776564 | -32.2905001125367 | 114.244131667849 |
| 185 | 40.6171753883389 | -35.602748355276 | 116.837099131954 |
| 186 | 40.2575349990215 | -39.1689382717573 | 119.6840082698 |
| 187 | 39.8978946097041 | -42.9809803672515 | 122.77676958666 |
