| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.108312065002691 |
| beta | 0.0447363123542684 |
| gamma | 0.508451758294713 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 126 | 130.144329985792 | -4.14432998579227 |
| 14 | 129 | 126.500495253810 | 2.49950474619028 |
| 15 | 124 | 122.354081329985 | 1.64591867001492 |
| 16 | 97 | 98.6532008959596 | -1.65320089595963 |
| 17 | 102 | 103.969303655171 | -1.96930365517079 |
| 18 | 127 | 130.957447008567 | -3.95744700856656 |
| 19 | 222 | 124.120396173949 | 97.8796038260514 |
| 20 | 214 | 147.196630483076 | 66.8033695169239 |
| 21 | 118 | 247.025283584059 | -129.025283584059 |
| 22 | 141 | 168.447717966043 | -27.4477179660433 |
| 23 | 154 | 170.508706787079 | -16.5087067870791 |
| 24 | 226 | 306.535574045117 | -80.5355740451167 |
| 25 | 89 | 136.537427208121 | -47.5374272081215 |
| 26 | 77 | 131.007607161597 | -54.0076071615966 |
| 27 | 82 | 120.031537133320 | -38.0315371333203 |
| 28 | 97 | 91.577857547966 | 5.42214245203392 |
| 29 | 127 | 96.7465563567895 | 30.2534436432105 |
| 30 | 121 | 125.192476020700 | -4.19247602069954 |
| 31 | 117 | 159.372314553024 | -42.3723145530239 |
| 32 | 117 | 150.984352890117 | -33.9843528901169 |
| 33 | 106 | 145.979206824267 | -39.9792068242669 |
| 34 | 112 | 125.173964372512 | -13.1739643725124 |
| 35 | 134 | 130.490232858689 | 3.50976714131144 |
| 36 | 169 | 216.313367529353 | -47.313367529353 |
| 37 | 75 | 91.408556262659 | -16.4085562626590 |
| 38 | 108 | 85.2572380806106 | 22.7427619193894 |
| 39 | 115 | 88.5708575729344 | 26.4291424270656 |
| 40 | 85 | 86.9470388632552 | -1.94703886325516 |
| 41 | 101 | 100.594290301228 | 0.405709698771844 |
| 42 | 108 | 108.651244557116 | -0.651244557116428 |
| 43 | 109 | 122.915443023605 | -13.9154430236054 |
| 44 | 124 | 120.686466528317 | 3.31353347168286 |
| 45 | 105 | 116.608811846146 | -11.6088118461458 |
| 46 | 95 | 111.142687541814 | -16.1426875418138 |
| 47 | 135 | 122.530013312232 | 12.4699866877679 |
| 48 | 164 | 181.603317031655 | -17.6033170316554 |
| 49 | 88 | 79.372836041403 | 8.62716395859707 |
| 50 | 85 | 93.2271108848331 | -8.2271108848331 |
| 51 | 112 | 94.3116887318487 | 17.6883112681513 |
| 52 | 87 | 79.9955798602076 | 7.00442013979236 |
| 53 | 91 | 94.7471269494024 | -3.7471269494024 |
| 54 | 87 | 101.318032018014 | -14.3180320180141 |
| 55 | 87 | 107.204925963829 | -20.2049259638287 |
| 56 | 142 | 111.267506769873 | 30.7324932301269 |
| 57 | 95 | 104.005922320230 | -9.0059223202303 |
| 58 | 108 | 97.0067359818533 | 10.9932640181467 |
| 59 | 139 | 123.361895894440 | 15.6381041055598 |
| 60 | 159 | 167.705575370262 | -8.7055753702617 |
| 61 | 61 | 80.9401698420455 | -19.9401698420455 |
| 62 | 82 | 83.6285428740918 | -1.62854287409179 |
| 63 | 124 | 96.2000056045196 | 27.7999943954804 |
| 64 | 93 | 79.1437619306942 | 13.8562380693058 |
| 65 | 108 | 89.4608523965795 | 18.5391476034205 |
| 66 | 75 | 93.7103883869437 | -18.7103883869437 |
| 67 | 87 | 96.3479479513994 | -9.34794795139945 |
| 68 | 103 | 124.399034851706 | -21.3990348517055 |
| 69 | 90 | 94.8592569025689 | -4.85925690256887 |
| 70 | 108 | 97.1815709055674 | 10.8184290944326 |
| 71 | 123 | 124.260709860798 | -1.26070986079783 |
| 72 | 129 | 153.690896006709 | -24.6908960067094 |
| 73 | 57 | 66.3727638663265 | -9.37276386632645 |
| 74 | 65 | 77.6218205080587 | -12.6218205080587 |
| 75 | 67 | 99.7972165841832 | -32.7972165841832 |
| 76 | 71 | 73.0566072532419 | -2.05660725324189 |
| 77 | 76 | 81.3348544944935 | -5.33485449449346 |
| 78 | 67 | 68.2282282047864 | -1.22822820478639 |
| 79 | 110 | 74.8272017538354 | 35.1727982461646 |
| 80 | 118 | 98.4709340938534 | 19.5290659061466 |
| 81 | 99 | 82.7695044049151 | 16.2304955950849 |
| 82 | 85 | 93.5620660782976 | -8.56206607829762 |
| 83 | 107 | 110.784022872340 | -3.78402287234039 |
| 84 | 141 | 126.895693388692 | 14.1043066113076 |
| 85 | 58 | 56.9815450210338 | 1.01845497896620 |
| 86 | 65 | 67.117718661446 | -2.11771866144595 |
| 87 | 70 | 80.1277986229931 | -10.1277986229931 |
| 88 | 86 | 70.2263055166748 | 15.7736944833252 |
| 89 | 93 | 79.2560646358973 | 13.7439353641027 |
| 90 | 74 | 70.1300321267206 | 3.86996787327944 |
| 91 | 87 | 94.5733573880377 | -7.57335738803773 |
| 92 | 73 | 106.505458314919 | -33.505458314919 |
| 93 | 101 | 84.5823799120424 | 16.4176200879576 |
| 94 | 100 | 84.2536434892917 | 15.7463565107083 |
| 95 | 96 | 105.793131473077 | -9.79313147307718 |
| 96 | 157 | 128.562123007903 | 28.4378769920971 |
| 97 | 63 | 56.1922708231173 | 6.80772917688268 |
| 98 | 115 | 65.5936916768001 | 49.4063083231999 |
| 99 | 70 | 81.723808433297 | -11.7238084332969 |
| 100 | 66 | 83.9727498076714 | -17.9727498076714 |
| 101 | 67 | 88.9025328194664 | -21.9025328194664 |
| 102 | 83 | 71.6372986993604 | 11.3627013006396 |
| 103 | 79 | 92.0380082626993 | -13.0380082626993 |
| 104 | 77 | 91.2764619592525 | -14.2764619592525 |
| 105 | 102 | 94.3007181888119 | 7.6992818111881 |
| 106 | 116 | 92.7705581452625 | 23.2294418547375 |
| 107 | 100 | 103.971587758270 | -3.97158775826976 |
| 108 | 135 | 146.170874039924 | -11.1708740399241 |
| 109 | 71 | 59.5021981548414 | 11.4978018451586 |
| 110 | 60 | 87.5171761947385 | -27.5171761947385 |
| 111 | 89 | 68.8851857487601 | 20.1148142512399 |
| 112 | 74 | 71.4389346389515 | 2.56106536104855 |
| 113 | 73 | 76.3970394594134 | -3.39703945941342 |
| 114 | 91 | 76.2095992984226 | 14.7904007015774 |
| 115 | 86 | 85.9084813097835 | 0.091518690216489 |
| 116 | 74 | 86.0628792474626 | -12.0628792474626 |
| 117 | 87 | 99.7270875519514 | -12.7270875519514 |
| 118 | 87 | 102.838239976045 | -15.8382399760448 |
| 119 | 109 | 97.5259660590252 | 11.4740339409748 |
| 120 | 137 | 136.905885828239 | 0.0941141717607934 |
| 121 | 43 | 63.2396644545201 | -20.2396644545201 |
| 122 | 69 | 68.8687087401573 | 0.131291259842712 |
| 123 | 73 | 74.2291547650164 | -1.22915476501640 |
| 124 | 77 | 66.9170447748802 | 10.0829552251198 |
| 125 | 69 | 69.7169310064325 | -0.716931006432461 |
| 126 | 76 | 77.2536129219603 | -1.25361292196033 |
| 127 | 78 | 78.2061454112974 | -0.206145411297371 |
| 128 | 70 | 73.0196354980326 | -3.01963549803261 |
| 129 | 83 | 85.8653897252149 | -2.86538972521487 |
| 130 | 65 | 88.12084853166 | -23.1208485316599 |
| 131 | 110 | 93.3263300791336 | 16.6736699208664 |
| 132 | 132 | 125.029808490760 | 6.97019150924022 |
| 133 | 54 | 49.2546571025369 | 4.74534289746305 |
| 134 | 55 | 66.1521491231288 | -11.1521491231288 |
| 135 | 66 | 69.3534333911984 | -3.35343339119842 |
| 136 | 65 | 66.9423302065172 | -1.9423302065172 |
| 137 | 60 | 63.6858791137508 | -3.68587911375084 |
| 138 | 65 | 69.8710429102855 | -4.87104291028547 |
| 139 | 96 | 70.5905635284038 | 25.4094364715962 |
| 140 | 55 | 67.2565228295534 | -12.2565228295534 |
| 141 | 71 | 78.0677197600627 | -7.06771976006274 |
| 142 | 63 | 70.83685969607 | -7.83685969606996 |
| 143 | 74 | 93.7691243556734 | -19.7691243556734 |
| 144 | 106 | 114.023879247739 | -8.0238792477388 |
| 145 | 34 | 44.9249058521102 | -10.9249058521102 |
| 146 | 47 | 51.1003199004015 | -4.10031990040145 |
| 147 | 56 | 57.0629918616688 | -1.06299186166878 |
| 148 | 53 | 55.4626702062255 | -2.46267020622553 |
| 149 | 53 | 51.6868352715647 | 1.31316472843534 |
| 150 | 55 | 56.61167105174 | -1.61167105174005 |
| 151 | 67 | 68.3218912568018 | -1.32189125680181 |
| 152 | 52 | 49.129003200485 | 2.87099679951496 |
| 153 | 46 | 60.922317768643 | -14.9223177686430 |
| 154 | 51 | 53.4414431683052 | -2.44144316830518 |
| 155 | 58 | 67.2538939852502 | -9.25389398525019 |
| 156 | 91 | 87.8602272553183 | 3.13977274468171 |
| 157 | 33 | 31.8866936673493 | 1.11330633265069 |
| 158 | 40 | 40.4317564609978 | -0.431756460997846 |
| 159 | 46 | 46.6239868350619 | -0.623986835061935 |
| 160 | 45 | 44.6069382832251 | 0.39306171677493 |
| 161 | 41 | 42.983478674085 | -1.98347867408499 |
| 162 | 55 | 45.3697282045682 | 9.63027179543177 |
| 163 | 57 | 56.2348181087636 | 0.765181891236367 |
| 164 | 54 | 41.8845674455068 | 12.1154325544932 |
| 165 | 46 | 45.862980259851 | 0.137019740148986 |
| 166 | 52 | 45.6786180656055 | 6.32138193439446 |
| 167 | 48 | 56.1374797060579 | -8.13747970605792 |
| 168 | 77 | 79.5606153668407 | -2.56061536684074 |
| 169 | 30 | 28.6641418770312 | 1.33585812296876 |
| 170 | 35 | 35.6703079828056 | -0.670307982805568 |
| 171 | 42 | 41.0649225714864 | 0.935077428513608 |
| 172 | 48 | 39.8698997016363 | 8.13010029836374 |
| 173 | 44 | 38.3273921188424 | 5.67260788115765 |
| 174 | 45 | 46.3172147008443 | -1.31721470084428 |
| 175 | 46 | 51.5423765375909 | -5.54237653759093 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 176 | 42.4875893851717 | 18.3906768986515 | 66.5845018716918 |
| 177 | 40.045151863656 | 15.5057695576652 | 64.5845341696468 |
| 178 | 42.2454244940831 | 17.0578184924456 | 67.4330304957205 |
| 179 | 44.8817649762370 | 18.8858100540598 | 70.8777198984143 |
| 180 | 68.1783163837826 | 38.4890526344703 | 97.867580133095 |
| 181 | 25.5258205745446 | 0.405737900418821 | 50.6459032486705 |
| 182 | 30.6618291190903 | 4.27149977168498 | 57.0521584664957 |
| 183 | 36.0128494642620 | 7.87293400122939 | 64.1527649272945 |
| 184 | 37.608126838853 | 8.2280037222346 | 66.9882499554713 |
| 185 | 34.4994959754093 | 5.08686697715785 | 63.9121249736607 |
| 186 | 37.8673896381498 | 6.40300500653447 | 69.3317742697651 |
| 187 | 40.5791551960481 | -0.292870962640883 | 81.451181354737 |
