| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.173659852690062 |
| beta | 0.000673607157187447 |
| gamma | 0.0799120898660841 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 576023 | 739236.348343582 | -163213.348343582 |
| 14 | 566089 | 722597.22335502 | -156508.223355020 |
| 15 | 336141 | 387184.554260695 | -51043.5542606952 |
| 16 | 26271 | 27219.7972199181 | -948.79721991812 |
| 17 | 586226 | 627443.268855386 | -41217.2688553861 |
| 18 | 376484 | 397321.350841869 | -20837.3508418691 |
| 19 | 176583 | 309024.876298841 | -132441.876298841 |
| 20 | 287042 | 487831.212121884 | -200789.212121884 |
| 21 | 997142 | 111930.940482397 | 885211.059517603 |
| 22 | 207694 | 615987.623242758 | -408293.623242758 |
| 23 | 418003 | 1339190.23642928 | -921187.236429283 |
| 24 | 838258 | 728062.325250325 | 110195.674749675 |
| 25 | 848182 | 762595.511260388 | 85586.4887396124 |
| 26 | 658215 | 792626.93376749 | -134411.933767490 |
| 27 | 208304 | 432249.652555293 | -223945.652555293 |
| 28 | 398599 | 28533.8767881063 | 370065.123211894 |
| 29 | 438399 | 2192383.68639341 | -1753984.68639341 |
| 30 | 578393 | 1235199.51962694 | -656806.519626942 |
| 31 | 988390 | 873787.559488568 | 114602.440511432 |
| 32 | 958304 | 1563666.53137693 | -605362.53137693 |
| 33 | 318251 | 465543.10628409 | -147292.10628409 |
| 34 | 78307 | 798431.473768609 | -720124.473768609 |
| 35 | 408520 | 1658292.15935405 | -1249772.15935405 |
| 36 | 748640 | 952307.363652946 | -203667.363652946 |
| 37 | 258520 | 937394.005680403 | -678874.005680403 |
| 38 | 518618 | 820844.364617842 | -302226.364617842 |
| 39 | 388588 | 420527.621090478 | -31939.6210904782 |
| 40 | 238842 | 39614.7499949613 | 199227.250005039 |
| 41 | 328957 | 1296548.27519747 | -967591.275197469 |
| 42 | 499266 | 752144.103420064 | -252878.103420064 |
| 43 | 109011 | 575868.96336755 | -466857.963367551 |
| 44 | 168896 | 827763.85529732 | -658867.85529732 |
| 45 | 798921 | 226363.709418321 | 572557.290581679 |
| 46 | 878732 | 559760.11243461 | 318971.88756539 |
| 47 | 897576 | 1536469.43460782 | -638893.434607823 |
| 48 | 518317 | 985389.101518985 | -467072.101518985 |
| 49 | 228370 | 887028.133628562 | -658658.133628562 |
| 50 | 758167 | 797520.147968473 | -39353.1479684729 |
| 51 | 658491 | 442654.497684608 | 215836.502315392 |
| 52 | 518170 | 54427.5431997364 | 463742.456800264 |
| 53 | 398212 | 1898231.69665058 | -1500019.69665058 |
| 54 | 498286 | 1135850.29550629 | -637564.295506293 |
| 55 | 78136 | 804813.882360483 | -726677.882360483 |
| 56 | 647990 | 1143970.69913980 | -495980.699139798 |
| 57 | 357927 | 402378.270111733 | -44451.2701117332 |
| 58 | 698061 | 629247.639937292 | 68813.3600627081 |
| 59 | 407932 | 1503017.21771447 | -1095085.21771447 |
| 60 | 637934 | 902609.559980435 | -264675.559980435 |
| 61 | 397784 | 820829.792641808 | -423045.792641808 |
| 62 | 217980 | 815303.86657468 | -597323.86657468 |
| 63 | 47737 | 410651.930193338 | -362914.930193338 |
| 64 | 467672 | 46558.0856360961 | 421113.914363904 |
| 65 | 67651 | 1285103.20654577 | -1217452.20654577 |
| 66 | 167524 | 756911.43381467 | -589387.43381467 |
| 67 | 687406 | 495339.173641111 | 192066.826358889 |
| 68 | 367345 | 927128.056999731 | -559783.056999731 |
| 69 | 157553 | 322300.243151604 | -164747.243151604 |
| 70 | 887453 | 472840.802374417 | 414612.197625583 |
| 71 | 227566 | 1195209.45119596 | -967643.451195957 |
| 72 | 817279 | 729633.967985096 | 87645.0320149038 |
| 73 | 697059 | 699827.566442166 | -2768.56644216599 |
| 74 | 997185 | 748295.097241629 | 248889.902758371 |
| 75 | 847075 | 451961.163959089 | 395113.836040911 |
| 76 | 547122 | 93313.8912772429 | 453808.108722757 |
| 77 | 996977 | 1389751.15843093 | -392774.158430927 |
| 78 | 346998 | 950519.584159758 | -603521.584159758 |
| 79 | 967154 | 699936.111890899 | 267217.888109101 |
| 80 | 547097 | 1226515.11523930 | -679418.115239301 |
| 81 | 586853 | 436094.680233765 | 150758.319766235 |
| 82 | 46728 | 818005.68409107 | -771277.68409107 |
| 83 | 236883 | 1343887.29824682 | -1107004.29824682 |
| 84 | 36784 | 882171.265927443 | -845387.265927443 |
| 85 | 277085 | 685219.690924196 | -408134.690924196 |
| 86 | 446998 | 669347.168823079 | -222349.168823079 |
| 87 | 586725 | 368482.338266265 | 218242.661733735 |
| 88 | 496845 | 80959.0361636194 | 415885.963836381 |
| 89 | 86765 | 1029634.82821167 | -942869.828211673 |
| 90 | 146966 | 602295.422765024 | -455329.422765024 |
| 91 | 197113 | 462310.402054415 | -265197.402054415 |
| 92 | 657096 | 635365.158905275 | 21730.8410947252 |
| 93 | 337200 | 265518.250985887 | 71681.7490141131 |
| 94 | 17273 | 442027.094132448 | -424754.094132448 |
| 95 | 457284 | 724639.179859548 | -267355.179859548 |
| 96 | 507696 | 507573.661244126 | 122.338755873789 |
| 97 | 547628 | 486041.84298517 | 61586.1570148298 |
| 98 | 157435 | 550592.895460722 | -393157.895460722 |
| 99 | 67793 | 296661.622649114 | -228868.622649114 |
| 100 | 267631 | 57419.8798939864 | 210211.120106014 |
| 101 | 518397 | 491087.368034462 | 27309.6319655378 |
| 102 | 918560 | 346967.885466356 | 571592.114533644 |
| 103 | 918895 | 400023.419307796 | 518871.580692204 |
| 104 | 429509 | 785818.286904767 | -356309.286904767 |
| 105 | 289569 | 305955.351629511 | -16386.3516295106 |
| 106 | 9010172 | 438500.679990297 | 8571671.3200097 |
| 107 | 1810617 | 4079254.52753124 | -2268637.52753124 |
| 108 | 7111400 | 2894967.20906553 | 4216432.79093447 |
| 109 | 1611919 | 3585486.10766381 | -1973567.10766381 |
| 110 | 9712714 | 3453102.02765783 | 6259611.97234217 |
| 111 | 2913310 | 2860115.64356294 | 53194.3564370624 |
| 112 | 1013816 | 810355.40686907 | 203460.593130930 |
| 113 | 6714518 | 3949731.22325645 | 2764786.77674355 |
| 114 | 2414721 | 3424420.25408295 | -1009699.25408295 |
| 115 | 9114534 | 2921745.61264709 | 6192788.38735291 |
| 116 | 8214993 | 5877982.54477447 | 2337010.45522553 |
| 117 | 6215159 | 2779197.89647447 | 3435961.10352553 |
| 118 | 515612 | 6448467.49319585 | -5932855.49319585 |
| 119 | 9415340 | 8524589.71609453 | 890750.283905465 |
| 120 | 3715267 | 7673911.81918202 | -3958644.81918202 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 6166347.07528942 | 5401927.3974007 | 6930766.75317815 |
| 122 | 7479700.45746127 | 6461110.62297475 | 8498290.29194779 |
| 123 | 4328727.01841742 | 3412254.21228529 | 5245199.82454954 |
| 124 | 1241755.33515733 | 447523.10083525 | 2035987.56947942 |
| 125 | 5949794.52131328 | 2995648.53709142 | 8903940.50553514 |
| 126 | 4329376.40357058 | 2076173.48229449 | 6582579.32484667 |
| 127 | 4384821.06495008 | 2033626.90187425 | 6736015.2280259 |
| 128 | 5993230.63581933 | 2762968.99530699 | 9223492.27633166 |
| 129 | 2760643.42206654 | 1102778.63907367 | 4418508.2050594 |
| 130 | 4581658.65588738 | 1857889.68893316 | 7305427.6228416 |
| 131 | 7821611.38370955 | 3186432.93890474 | 12456789.8285144 |
| 132 | 6610628.31328764 | 2710255.76798363 | 10511000.8585916 |
