| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.114137022903750 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.419871625251202 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 530 | 452.676014957265 | 77.3239850427346 |
| 14 | 883 | 802.652622497675 | 80.3473775023251 |
| 15 | 894 | 823.099311052492 | 70.9006889475078 |
| 16 | 1045 | 997.551116032697 | 47.4488839673032 |
| 17 | 1199 | 1169.99286847741 | 29.0071315225916 |
| 18 | 1287 | 1268.16306753429 | 18.8369324657142 |
| 19 | 1565 | 1429.50580368181 | 135.494196318194 |
| 20 | 1577 | 1387.20511929221 | 189.794880707788 |
| 21 | 1076 | 1263.89382002715 | -187.893820027150 |
| 22 | 918 | 1082.55759020915 | -164.557590209149 |
| 23 | 1008 | 1099.34322152171 | -91.343221521706 |
| 24 | 1063 | 1053.31865624336 | 9.6813437566409 |
| 25 | 544 | 645.793625295511 | -101.793625295511 |
| 26 | 635 | 976.450829021697 | -341.450829021697 |
| 27 | 804 | 945.241042226482 | -141.241042226482 |
| 28 | 980 | 1086.75675254648 | -106.756752546479 |
| 29 | 1018 | 1234.73854636167 | -216.738546361674 |
| 30 | 1064 | 1301.07727275124 | -237.077272751242 |
| 31 | 1404 | 1476.60124429179 | -72.6012442917925 |
| 32 | 1286 | 1430.74623631629 | -144.746236316289 |
| 33 | 1104 | 1128.77057811830 | -24.7705781182970 |
| 34 | 999 | 974.732630493978 | 24.2673695060219 |
| 35 | 996 | 1040.30217185881 | -44.3021718588093 |
| 36 | 1015 | 1037.22269048956 | -22.2226904895558 |
| 37 | 615 | 584.593255117764 | 30.4067448822359 |
| 38 | 722 | 841.199223454416 | -119.199223454416 |
| 39 | 832 | 909.824348774502 | -77.824348774502 |
| 40 | 977 | 1071.40463936801 | -94.404639368012 |
| 41 | 1270 | 1179.88867830149 | 90.111321698513 |
| 42 | 1437 | 1273.68537170127 | 163.314628298733 |
| 43 | 1520 | 1556.08553238509 | -36.0855323850876 |
| 44 | 1708 | 1487.56408104484 | 220.435918955162 |
| 45 | 1151 | 1271.89402031800 | -120.894020318003 |
| 46 | 934 | 1125.12443140956 | -191.124431409564 |
| 47 | 1159 | 1140.60544017371 | 18.3945598262899 |
| 48 | 1209 | 1152.89441211373 | 56.1055878862699 |
| 49 | 699 | 728.780584783842 | -29.7805847838417 |
| 50 | 830 | 922.871200880342 | -92.871200880342 |
| 51 | 996 | 1009.89066032198 | -13.8906603219818 |
| 52 | 1124 | 1172.60113378353 | -48.6011337835325 |
| 53 | 1458 | 1354.9435254869 | 103.056474513101 |
| 54 | 1270 | 1477.44561686116 | -207.445616861164 |
| 55 | 1753 | 1643.36167083334 | 109.638329166662 |
| 56 | 2258 | 1686.88553473281 | 571.114465267189 |
| 57 | 1208 | 1384.28364255664 | -176.283642556638 |
| 58 | 1241 | 1205.06993499768 | 35.9300650023215 |
| 59 | 1265 | 1324.39659028932 | -59.3965902893208 |
| 60 | 1828 | 1341.83328086323 | 486.166719136771 |
| 61 | 809 | 934.860098048327 | -125.860098048327 |
| 62 | 997 | 1094.51801013653 | -97.5180101365274 |
| 63 | 1164 | 1210.38380819662 | -46.3838081966187 |
| 64 | 1205 | 1356.47509404465 | -151.475094044655 |
| 65 | 1538 | 1583.48461267835 | -45.4846126783498 |
| 66 | 1513 | 1573.54180867131 | -60.5418086713128 |
| 67 | 1378 | 1874.16399633978 | -496.163996339783 |
| 68 | 2083 | 2020.18884813655 | 62.8111518634519 |
| 69 | 1357 | 1381.57695356408 | -24.5769535640814 |
| 70 | 1536 | 1298.61121442000 | 237.388785580003 |
| 71 | 1526 | 1405.47514014156 | 120.524859858439 |
| 72 | 1376 | 1646.36910834542 | -270.369108345416 |
| 73 | 779 | 925.404582342507 | -146.404582342507 |
| 74 | 1005 | 1093.25941170233 | -88.2594117023268 |
| 75 | 1193 | 1229.20125998990 | -36.2012599899022 |
| 76 | 1522 | 1337.36618148673 | 184.633818513273 |
| 77 | 1539 | 1642.16119548949 | -103.161195489493 |
| 78 | 1546 | 1620.03485313316 | -74.0348531331554 |
| 79 | 2116 | 1757.08786630969 | 358.912133690309 |
| 80 | 2326 | 2208.61865727024 | 117.381342729755 |
| 81 | 1596 | 1543.73134717140 | 52.2686528285965 |
| 82 | 1356 | 1566.97436020357 | -210.974360203574 |
| 83 | 1553 | 1579.19606277105 | -26.1960627710478 |
| 84 | 1613 | 1657.95122743416 | -44.9512274341603 |
| 85 | 814 | 1008.82367502461 | -194.823675024606 |
| 86 | 1150 | 1192.77911554965 | -42.77911554965 |
| 87 | 1225 | 1353.27491274939 | -128.274912749387 |
| 88 | 1691 | 1533.07014816688 | 157.929851833121 |
| 89 | 1759 | 1727.77226154631 | 31.2277384536931 |
| 90 | 1754 | 1731.81817801053 | 22.1818219894669 |
| 91 | 2100 | 2040.88715705512 | 59.1128429448781 |
| 92 | 2062 | 2368.36267904443 | -306.362679044426 |
| 93 | 2012 | 1630.89190564532 | 381.108094354682 |
| 94 | 1897 | 1593.75476970934 | 303.245230290662 |
| 95 | 1964 | 1733.39601813616 | 230.603981863839 |
| 96 | 2186 | 1834.48561573664 | 351.514384263362 |
| 97 | 966 | 1174.86460169494 | -208.864601694942 |
| 98 | 1549 | 1413.77023313843 | 135.229766861571 |
| 99 | 1538 | 1562.78338121407 | -24.7833812140684 |
| 100 | 1612 | 1860.84433005452 | -248.844330054518 |
| 101 | 2078 | 1961.99175941998 | 116.008240580019 |
| 102 | 2137 | 1972.34965287524 | 164.650347124759 |
| 103 | 2907 | 2311.41601150227 | 595.583988497729 |
| 104 | 2249 | 2564.18459742042 | -315.184597420418 |
| 105 | 1883 | 2081.41079618555 | -198.410796185548 |
| 106 | 1739 | 1949.16810612419 | -210.168106124190 |
| 107 | 1828 | 2003.19106486497 | -175.191064864973 |
| 108 | 1868 | 2102.93689429035 | -234.936894290347 |
| 109 | 1138 | 1167.94782624310 | -29.9478262431021 |
| 110 | 1430 | 1555.25994846124 | -125.259948461239 |
| 111 | 1809 | 1615.02488905196 | 193.975110948045 |
| 112 | 1763 | 1854.71509601973 | -91.7150960197341 |
| 113 | 2200 | 2109.50323790342 | 90.4967620965781 |
| 114 | 2067 | 2135.04169680851 | -68.041696808506 |
| 115 | 2503 | 2607.83449802424 | -104.834498024243 |
| 116 | 2141 | 2441.90018612108 | -300.900186121075 |
| 117 | 2103 | 2004.19063189226 | 98.8093681077444 |
| 118 | 1972 | 1901.49865005458 | 70.5013499454151 |
| 119 | 2181 | 2000.56605093475 | 180.433949065248 |
| 120 | 2344 | 2118.67947546554 | 225.320524534457 |
| 121 | 970 | 1312.46824207477 | -342.468242074775 |
| 122 | 1199 | 1628.65899181663 | -429.658991816633 |
| 123 | 1718 | 1772.41980608619 | -54.4198060861927 |
| 124 | 1683 | 1877.49684765174 | -194.496847651745 |
| 125 | 2025 | 2188.32725523786 | -163.327255237864 |
| 126 | 2051 | 2125.92681834309 | -74.9268183430931 |
| 127 | 2439 | 2584.24873667488 | -145.248736674878 |
| 128 | 2353 | 2340.77528060827 | 12.2247193917328 |
| 129 | 2230 | 2087.47633113388 | 142.523668866122 |
| 130 | 1852 | 1979.24463809701 | -127.244638097015 |
| 131 | 2147 | 2096.63119101298 | 50.368808987022 |
| 132 | 2286 | 2216.59487231918 | 69.4051276808173 |
| 133 | 1007 | 1181.3996102259 | -174.399610225901 |
| 134 | 1665 | 1484.34272479559 | 180.657275204408 |
| 135 | 1642 | 1837.33295861957 | -195.332958619569 |
| 136 | 1518 | 1874.22511504262 | -356.225115042616 |
| 137 | 1831 | 2178.18982991821 | -347.189829918213 |
| 138 | 2207 | 2127.68429617865 | 79.3157038213512 |
| 139 | 2822 | 2577.45484872541 | 244.545151274589 |
| 140 | 2393 | 2437.04335824424 | -44.0433582442365 |
| 141 | 2306 | 2225.78666641330 | 80.2133335866952 |
| 142 | 1785 | 2010.10307859716 | -225.103078597165 |
| 143 | 2047 | 2182.38345615696 | -135.383456156964 |
| 144 | 2171 | 2288.22646144489 | -117.226461444886 |
| 145 | 1212 | 1141.04676325805 | 70.9532367419451 |
| 146 | 1335 | 1604.05667822492 | -269.056678224918 |
| 147 | 2011 | 1765.86881105628 | 245.131188943724 |
| 148 | 1860 | 1793.19060106043 | 66.8093989395675 |
| 149 | 1954 | 2148.79987875612 | -194.799878756117 |
| 150 | 2152 | 2274.32587109784 | -122.325871097839 |
| 151 | 2835 | 2762.53853738870 | 72.4614626112966 |
| 152 | 2224 | 2495.14579797863 | -271.145797978633 |
| 153 | 2182 | 2304.18542824719 | -122.185428247193 |
| 154 | 1992 | 1951.83859718394 | 40.161402816062 |
| 155 | 2389 | 2187.76657237253 | 201.233427627467 |
| 156 | 2724 | 2338.78349772118 | 385.216502278822 |
| 157 | 891 | 1318.94434295805 | -427.944342958047 |
| 158 | 1247 | 1598.54531808404 | -351.545318084043 |
| 159 | 2017 | 1942.19396625574 | 74.8060337442596 |
| 160 | 2257 | 1883.7487871632 | 373.251212836802 |
| 161 | 2255 | 2177.02918313327 | 77.9708168667294 |
| 162 | 2255 | 2360.64502556622 | -105.645025566216 |
| 163 | 3057 | 2923.21249489815 | 133.787505101849 |
| 164 | 3330 | 2535.01504391593 | 794.984956084075 |
| 165 | 1896 | 2521.1452845149 | -625.1452845149 |
| 166 | 2096 | 2171.77681011675 | -75.7768101167508 |
| 167 | 2374 | 2454.38247757626 | -80.3824775762628 |
| 168 | 2535 | 2641.68887248227 | -106.688872482273 |
| 169 | 1041 | 1263.25096069443 | -222.250960694430 |
| 170 | 1728 | 1594.74568622099 | 133.254313779010 |
| 171 | 2201 | 2152.3087640478 | 48.6912359521993 |
| 172 | 2455 | 2201.88922440581 | 253.110775594188 |
| 173 | 2204 | 2371.62798087100 | -167.627980871004 |
| 174 | 2660 | 2458.91622867826 | 201.083771321742 |
| 175 | 3670 | 3145.54943493606 | 524.450565063941 |
| 176 | 2665 | 3047.87265338855 | -382.872653388547 |
| 177 | 2639 | 2371.35009653323 | 267.64990346677 |
| 178 | 2226 | 2328.21951217863 | -102.219512178628 |
| 179 | 2586 | 2606.09401619437 | -20.0940161943713 |
| 180 | 2684 | 2790.49692647589 | -106.496926475895 |
| 181 | 1185 | 1369.09775112480 | -184.097751124797 |
| 182 | 1749 | 1837.17690502338 | -88.1769050233779 |
| 183 | 2459 | 2338.01335352949 | 120.986646470514 |
| 184 | 2618 | 2471.87898455025 | 146.121015449751 |
| 185 | 2585 | 2472.91300304771 | 112.086996952294 |
| 186 | 3310 | 2729.26895289113 | 580.731047108874 |
| 187 | 3923 | 3579.50983655229 | 343.490163447706 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 3123.70105656404 | 2707.13939486597 | 3540.26271826211 |
| 189 | 2732.83948203849 | 2313.57327151828 | 3152.1056925587 |
| 190 | 2521.58767586729 | 2099.63425122033 | 2943.54110051425 |
| 191 | 2841.67568444883 | 2417.05205126455 | 3266.29931763311 |
| 192 | 2996.23461334715 | 2568.95745839273 | 3423.51176830156 |
| 193 | 1558.1271521169 | 1128.21285317668 | 1988.04145105712 |
| 194 | 2082.89631194280 | 1650.3609472377 | 2515.43167664791 |
| 195 | 2671.5951267874 | 2236.45448399716 | 3106.73576957763 |
| 196 | 2801.00039873839 | 2363.26998364799 | 3238.73081382880 |
| 197 | 2772.69768966181 | 2332.39273445175 | 3213.00264487188 |
| 198 | 3190.5719216808 | 2747.70739288011 | 3633.43645048149 |
| 199 | 3886.28844762327 | 3440.87905374257 | 4331.69784150398 |
