| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.670544711383677 |
| beta | 0.0178522796328237 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 40471 | 41770.7616436247 | -1299.76164362465 |
| 14 | 39947 | 40363.3639934426 | -416.363993442552 |
| 15 | 42683 | 42785.1307600934 | -102.130760093416 |
| 16 | 47090 | 47045.0915068437 | 44.908493156312 |
| 17 | 51520 | 51340.6599528949 | 179.340047105114 |
| 18 | 48823 | 48479.7124150463 | 343.287584953723 |
| 19 | 36122 | 36571.43196847 | -449.431968469959 |
| 20 | 33812 | 33974.1874547103 | -162.187454710329 |
| 21 | 36928 | 36243.6064262329 | 684.393573767105 |
| 22 | 37737 | 37424.9263177328 | 312.073682267161 |
| 23 | 40123 | 38692.6050682175 | 1430.39493178254 |
| 24 | 41713 | 39844.491581212 | 1868.50841878798 |
| 25 | 42025 | 40448.3026519217 | 1576.69734807833 |
| 26 | 42169 | 41320.5907170226 | 848.409282977416 |
| 27 | 46352 | 44924.0862051335 | 1427.91379486646 |
| 28 | 50939 | 50717.4047142186 | 221.595285781448 |
| 29 | 56139 | 55668.6199794515 | 470.380020548502 |
| 30 | 52713 | 52947.2538120532 | -234.253812053248 |
| 31 | 38532 | 39483.6273427048 | -951.62734270483 |
| 32 | 37860 | 36568.0201769145 | 1291.97982308552 |
| 33 | 40880 | 40495.9716757207 | 384.02832427925 |
| 34 | 41988 | 41535.0457224968 | 452.954277503159 |
| 35 | 44576 | 43535.95844292 | 1040.04155707997 |
| 36 | 46728 | 44705.7440475916 | 2022.25595240844 |
| 37 | 46913 | 45343.4313114296 | 1569.56868857041 |
| 38 | 49357 | 46038.7035498039 | 3318.29645019605 |
| 39 | 54709 | 52106.1474020182 | 2602.85259798176 |
| 40 | 60819 | 59200.5786742622 | 1618.42132573779 |
| 41 | 63695 | 66298.6953543585 | -2603.69535435853 |
| 42 | 60109 | 60973.395887549 | -864.395887548992 |
| 43 | 45544 | 44999.7936439552 | 544.206356044837 |
| 44 | 43596 | 43687.6035908299 | -91.6035908299382 |
| 45 | 44431 | 46941.5469237097 | -2510.54692370973 |
| 46 | 45575 | 46242.6361075631 | -667.636107563114 |
| 47 | 47980 | 47934.5917659825 | 45.4082340175082 |
| 48 | 49211 | 48870.8720799706 | 340.127920029357 |
| 49 | 51374 | 48220.7834752908 | 3153.2165247092 |
| 50 | 52954 | 50580.6826549288 | 2373.31734507121 |
| 51 | 57529 | 56008.1575827832 | 1520.84241721684 |
| 52 | 62960 | 62297.4002375433 | 662.599762456652 |
| 53 | 64530 | 67517.7939917282 | -2987.79399172822 |
| 54 | 61008 | 62445.9883563443 | -1437.98835634426 |
| 55 | 44964 | 46224.5442533472 | -1260.54425334724 |
| 56 | 43480 | 43493.5268955971 | -13.5268955970678 |
| 57 | 45429 | 45960.4182033567 | -531.418203356683 |
| 58 | 47616 | 47254.3992047989 | 361.600795201099 |
| 59 | 49364 | 50004.9036476862 | -640.903647686166 |
| 60 | 51010 | 50636.319514932 | 373.680485068042 |
| 61 | 53188 | 50917.7715822993 | 2270.22841770069 |
| 62 | 55317 | 52417.3456146658 | 2899.65438533419 |
| 63 | 60106 | 58021.7073739485 | 2084.29262605146 |
| 64 | 65845 | 64595.5902009659 | 1249.4097990341 |
| 65 | 67028 | 69151.2906448299 | -2123.29064482992 |
| 66 | 63617 | 65079.4026750192 | -1462.40267501917 |
| 67 | 47605 | 48155.3565773381 | -550.356577338142 |
| 68 | 45844 | 46259.8592872908 | -415.859287290848 |
| 69 | 47925 | 48455.7095054046 | -530.709505404608 |
| 70 | 50156 | 50198.2509360205 | -42.2509360204567 |
| 71 | 52258 | 52499.2838760528 | -241.283876052825 |
| 72 | 53476 | 53859.4154956275 | -383.415495627538 |
| 73 | 54327 | 54302.7279575927 | 24.2720424072904 |
| 74 | 55214 | 54479.1556037366 | 734.844396263397 |
| 75 | 59347 | 58305.9873370097 | 1041.01266299035 |
| 76 | 64718 | 63776.1518573086 | 941.84814269143 |
| 77 | 66208 | 66904.63716325 | -696.637163250009 |
| 78 | 62744 | 63998.5568481841 | -1254.55684818411 |
| 79 | 45587 | 47610.4973492564 | -2023.49734925642 |
| 80 | 43684 | 44781.6865246547 | -1097.68652465472 |
| 81 | 45676 | 46344.726801493 | -668.726801493023 |
| 82 | 47088 | 48015.2875560134 | -927.287556013362 |
| 83 | 48907 | 49475.1608830378 | -568.160883037788 |
| 84 | 50964 | 50416.6699681876 | 547.330031812446 |
| 85 | 51798 | 51523.3285137023 | 274.671486297681 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 86 | 52030.242880675 | 49423.4721045705 | 54637.0136567794 |
| 87 | 55201.3311467673 | 51982.6220416143 | 58420.0402519204 |
| 88 | 59528.1191950603 | 55684.595763919 | 63371.6426262016 |
| 89 | 61235.7823570198 | 56889.6756466133 | 65581.8890674262 |
| 90 | 58724.5472061808 | 54117.8552754356 | 63331.239136926 |
| 91 | 43868.0789729621 | 39757.863529855 | 47978.2944160691 |
| 92 | 42711.741141917 | 38273.0473569889 | 47150.4349268451 |
| 93 | 45079.7940046392 | 40060.196981238 | 50099.3910280404 |
| 94 | 47074.6003435039 | 41506.6177666768 | 52642.582920331 |
| 95 | 49275.2139383201 | 43135.8752092517 | 55414.5526673885 |
| 96 | 50986.6139356453 | 44324.5921788375 | 57648.6356924532 |
| 97 | 51639.7013864515 | 45071.8628188277 | 58207.5399540754 |
