| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.215289717700249 |
| beta | 0.032381255659449 |
| gamma | 0.187381168803615 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 268 | 293.967403205295 | -25.9674032052949 |
| 14 | 243 | 261.279066016922 | -18.2790660169215 |
| 15 | 273 | 287.52216433785 | -14.5221643378497 |
| 16 | 273 | 282.154029536538 | -9.15402953653762 |
| 17 | 236 | 240.052393908794 | -4.05239390879376 |
| 18 | 222 | 225.321974382947 | -3.32197438294742 |
| 19 | 302 | 331.62591223883 | -29.6259122388303 |
| 20 | 285 | 251.252910722602 | 33.7470892773981 |
| 21 | 309 | 313.420014435399 | -4.42001443539868 |
| 22 | 322 | 276.642808039274 | 45.3571919607256 |
| 23 | 362 | 362.153841458186 | -0.153841458186321 |
| 24 | 471 | 490.446318134576 | -19.4463181345757 |
| 25 | 198 | 237.556905757886 | -39.5569057578857 |
| 26 | 253 | 207.144754599583 | 45.8552454004175 |
| 27 | 173 | 242.749178750529 | -69.749178750529 |
| 28 | 186 | 225.533027265585 | -39.5330272655852 |
| 29 | 185 | 185.187465645161 | -0.18746564516124 |
| 30 | 105 | 173.356597197516 | -68.356597197516 |
| 31 | 228 | 228.919913889412 | -0.919913889411617 |
| 32 | 214 | 180.486255372186 | 33.5137446278141 |
| 33 | 189 | 220.432903705423 | -31.4329037054227 |
| 34 | 270 | 191.480284597071 | 78.5197154029286 |
| 35 | 277 | 254.895825490684 | 22.1041745093161 |
| 36 | 378 | 346.342019413936 | 31.6579805860641 |
| 37 | 185 | 167.750604816957 | 17.2493951830433 |
| 38 | 182 | 163.144611053542 | 18.8553889464584 |
| 39 | 258 | 172.065508197891 | 85.9344918021087 |
| 40 | 179 | 192.634343570042 | -13.6343435700416 |
| 41 | 197 | 166.783008331636 | 30.2169916683642 |
| 42 | 168 | 152.746752281694 | 15.2532477183061 |
| 43 | 250 | 242.962670714408 | 7.03732928559191 |
| 44 | 211 | 200.513201229313 | 10.486798770687 |
| 45 | 260 | 229.484165491913 | 30.5158345080868 |
| 46 | 234 | 231.534012801734 | 2.46598719826557 |
| 47 | 305 | 275.103369497467 | 29.8966305025329 |
| 48 | 347 | 379.766922808021 | -32.7669228080214 |
| 49 | 203 | 178.917805007184 | 24.0821949928156 |
| 50 | 217 | 177.136699081127 | 39.8633009188732 |
| 51 | 227 | 202.584847139445 | 24.4151528605552 |
| 52 | 242 | 196.242570849108 | 45.7574291508921 |
| 53 | 185 | 189.642691850002 | -4.64269185000157 |
| 54 | 175 | 165.731390742943 | 9.26860925705742 |
| 55 | 252 | 260.478030455908 | -8.47803045590757 |
| 56 | 319 | 214.338386057477 | 104.661613942523 |
| 57 | 202 | 273.969829179295 | -71.9698291792946 |
| 58 | 254 | 250.969535770226 | 3.03046422977351 |
| 59 | 336 | 304.68157241278 | 31.3184275872205 |
| 60 | 431 | 411.224970251101 | 19.775029748899 |
| 61 | 150 | 207.729195404114 | -57.7291954041145 |
| 62 | 280 | 191.141876445533 | 88.8581235544666 |
| 63 | 187 | 227.712173791822 | -40.712173791822 |
| 64 | 279 | 210.739884928704 | 68.2601150712957 |
| 65 | 193 | 201.106681466562 | -8.10668146656226 |
| 66 | 227 | 178.04668372773 | 48.9533162722699 |
| 67 | 225 | 290.934832372585 | -65.9348323725854 |
| 68 | 205 | 246.610130541036 | -41.6101305410363 |
| 69 | 259 | 247.458533606376 | 11.5414663936241 |
| 70 | 254 | 254.071138930979 | -0.0711389309789752 |
| 71 | 275 | 312.311437781 | -37.3114377809997 |
| 72 | 394 | 398.862204264107 | -4.86220426410745 |
| 73 | 159 | 188.910702268935 | -29.9107022689349 |
| 74 | 230 | 198.495777349578 | 31.504222650422 |
| 75 | 188 | 203.293034542196 | -15.2930345421961 |
| 76 | 195 | 206.610537141597 | -11.6105371415968 |
| 77 | 189 | 172.665527834917 | 16.3344721650835 |
| 78 | 220 | 163.926313913599 | 56.0736860864014 |
| 79 | 274 | 251.899514837094 | 22.1004851629063 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 80 | 231.040701285538 | 203.79212270492 | 258.289279866156 |
| 81 | 249.081469270314 | 216.3841820279 | 281.778756512728 |
| 82 | 251.865806467589 | 214.621021325775 | 289.110591609402 |
| 83 | 304.523245620927 | 258.040081787761 | 351.006409454093 |
| 84 | 406.817217799833 | 343.993209779305 | 469.641225820362 |
| 85 | 189.373513740147 | 150.07934087527 | 228.667686605025 |
| 86 | 216.730358229146 | 169.517939860746 | 263.942776597546 |
| 87 | 208.114207807038 | 158.498575390571 | 257.729840223504 |
| 88 | 216.359196790053 | 161.365443341128 | 271.352950238978 |
| 89 | 187.825570647375 | 135.064044334421 | 240.587096960329 |
| 90 | 181.062987484556 | 126.105756282967 | 236.020218686145 |
| 91 | 250.825740951645 | 167.49845593819 | 334.153025965099 |
