| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.175227912761956 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.28039163452554 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 634712 | 619554.406762921 | 15157.5932370792 |
| 14 | 639283 | 628499.919733411 | 10783.0802665888 |
| 15 | 712182 | 704141.440656674 | 8040.55934332637 |
| 16 | 621557 | 616925.923311347 | 4631.07668865321 |
| 17 | 621000 | 614982.406241976 | 6017.59375802369 |
| 18 | 675989 | 667318.110855819 | 8670.88914418127 |
| 19 | 501322 | 519139.232379148 | -17817.2323791476 |
| 20 | 220286 | 221303.387136167 | -1017.38713616732 |
| 21 | 560727 | 569501.226683812 | -8774.22668381152 |
| 22 | 602530 | 598780.316898144 | 3749.68310185627 |
| 23 | 626379 | 556961.898796497 | 69417.1012035034 |
| 24 | 605508 | 594947.333797703 | 10560.6662022970 |
| 25 | 646783 | 668652.31125539 | -21869.3112553904 |
| 26 | 658442 | 670285.927135215 | -11843.9271352155 |
| 27 | 712906 | 745272.76983353 | -32366.7698335300 |
| 28 | 687714 | 646023.54288252 | 41690.4571174798 |
| 29 | 723916 | 650641.248704137 | 73274.7512958628 |
| 30 | 707183 | 719075.658912477 | -11892.6589124774 |
| 31 | 629000 | 550304.498029574 | 78695.5019704263 |
| 32 | 237530 | 243535.140489665 | -6005.14048966489 |
| 33 | 613296 | 622755.681361663 | -9459.68136166257 |
| 34 | 730444 | 657902.742809847 | 72541.2571901528 |
| 35 | 734925 | 639524.447399176 | 95400.5526008242 |
| 36 | 651812 | 669693.193506365 | -17881.1935063653 |
| 37 | 676155 | 737874.078085287 | -61719.0780852865 |
| 38 | 748183 | 735410.171252373 | 12772.8287476272 |
| 39 | 810681 | 817488.285284563 | -6807.28528456332 |
| 40 | 729363 | 730691.404920605 | -1328.40492060478 |
| 41 | 701108 | 734968.695528562 | -33860.6955285618 |
| 42 | 790079 | 767331.821670047 | 22747.1783299531 |
| 43 | 594621 | 613312.747193763 | -18691.7471937635 |
| 44 | 230716 | 253642.775494520 | -22926.7754945197 |
| 45 | 617189 | 642454.913711632 | -25265.9137116324 |
| 46 | 691389 | 695127.772412943 | -3738.77241294342 |
| 47 | 701067 | 667815.762934695 | 33251.2370653052 |
| 48 | 705777 | 660978.1501507 | 44798.8498492998 |
| 49 | 747636 | 730361.356309192 | 17274.6436908082 |
| 50 | 773392 | 759634.404212902 | 13757.5957870976 |
| 51 | 813788 | 839466.974308982 | -25678.9743089821 |
| 52 | 766713 | 748482.069205271 | 18230.9307947287 |
| 53 | 728875 | 748447.241538165 | -19572.2415381655 |
| 54 | 749197 | 798000.115042067 | -48803.1150420669 |
| 55 | 680954 | 619030.343110814 | 61923.6568891864 |
| 56 | 241424 | 258131.639720939 | -16707.6397209391 |
| 57 | 680234 | 664837.821991449 | 15396.1780085505 |
| 58 | 708326 | 732971.165874855 | -24645.165874855 |
| 59 | 694238 | 709465.977862678 | -15227.9778626784 |
| 60 | 772071 | 696231.924334372 | 75839.0756656277 |
| 61 | 795337 | 767042.402600392 | 28294.5973996082 |
| 62 | 788421 | 798515.457734531 | -10094.4577345313 |
| 63 | 889968 | 867732.1450247 | 22235.8549752998 |
| 64 | 797393 | 791247.944867612 | 6145.05513238837 |
| 65 | 751000 | 779654.019083943 | -28654.0190839426 |
| 66 | 821255 | 822757.408468614 | -1502.40846861433 |
| 67 | 691605 | 669070.250518267 | 22534.7494817328 |
| 68 | 290655 | 265564.42091586 | 25090.5790841401 |
| 69 | 727147 | 717763.781765935 | 9383.21823406534 |
| 70 | 868355 | 779446.427363071 | 88908.5726369286 |
| 71 | 812390 | 776111.09212828 | 36278.9078717206 |
| 72 | 799556 | 793555.445755648 | 6000.55424435192 |
| 73 | 843038 | 845214.216072039 | -2176.21607203863 |
| 74 | 847000 | 863783.437214284 | -16783.4372142840 |
| 75 | 941952 | 945644.270329026 | -3692.27032902581 |
| 76 | 804309 | 854184.040582017 | -49875.040582017 |
| 77 | 840307 | 823196.87157843 | 17110.1284215699 |
| 78 | 871528 | 884553.590219084 | -13025.5902190842 |
| 79 | 656330 | 723428.13446402 | -67098.1344640201 |
| 80 | 370508 | 284612.116935953 | 85895.8830640467 |
| 81 | 742000 | 782162.077508625 | -40162.0775086255 |
| 82 | 847152 | 858787.930539864 | -11635.930539864 |
| 83 | 731675 | 823922.787155937 | -92247.7871559366 |
| 84 | 898527 | 811886.486890023 | 86640.5131099772 |
| 85 | 778139 | 877604.094570184 | -99465.094570184 |
| 86 | 856075 | 875986.169298653 | -19911.1692986527 |
| 87 | 938833 | 961875.459262197 | -23042.4592621974 |
| 88 | 813023 | 854720.928859736 | -41697.9288597363 |
| 89 | 783417 | 840500.032015401 | -57083.0320154008 |
| 90 | 828110 | 881899.559526141 | -53789.5595261412 |
| 91 | 657311 | 702207.740221743 | -44896.7402217428 |
| 92 | 310032 | 302690.227103269 | 7341.7728967308 |
| 93 | 780000 | 735269.148354947 | 44730.8516450532 |
| 94 | 860000 | 830743.591591135 | 29256.4084088654 |
| 95 | 780000 | 785121.037605322 | -5121.03760532173 |
| 96 | 807993 | 829232.905936562 | -21239.9059365618 |
| 97 | 895217 | 832415.100724539 | 62801.8992754614 |
| 98 | 856075 | 877849.309781133 | -21774.3097811330 |
| 99 | 893268 | 963276.153969898 | -70008.1539698981 |
| 100 | 875000 | 843667.124162504 | 31332.8758374964 |
| 101 | 835088 | 838354.149920531 | -3266.1499205312 |
| 102 | 934595 | 891061.092074049 | 43533.9079259512 |
| 103 | 832500 | 722718.484718449 | 109781.515281551 |
| 104 | 3e+05 | 330126.176007452 | -30126.1760074521 |
| 105 | 791443 | 792146.906842533 | -703.906842533033 |
| 106 | 9e+05 | 880234.625848807 | 19765.3741511930 |
| 107 | 781729 | 822043.126160688 | -40314.1261606885 |
| 108 | 880000 | 857838.818329303 | 22161.1816706973 |
| 109 | 875024 | 889078.137458024 | -14054.1374580237 |
| 110 | 992968 | 901889.620794426 | 91078.3792055736 |
| 111 | 976804 | 999976.874470696 | -23172.8744706957 |
| 112 | 968697 | 906340.62620922 | 62356.37379078 |
| 113 | 871675 | 896980.881478231 | -25305.8814782314 |
| 114 | 1006852 | 960664.618673954 | 46187.3813260460 |
| 115 | 832037 | 796680.263005263 | 35356.7369947374 |
| 116 | 345587 | 337970.054733646 | 7616.94526635355 |
| 117 | 849528 | 845236.042694702 | 4291.95730529772 |
| 118 | 913871 | 945124.313741886 | -31253.3137418862 |
| 119 | 868746 | 859533.465010763 | 9212.5349892372 |
| 120 | 993733 | 922237.972678414 | 71495.0273215859 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 955061.71633301 | 922437.751567954 | 987685.681098066 |
| 122 | 997290.304336678 | 961526.527776444 | 1033054.08089691 |
| 123 | 1056294.78469796 | 1017242.44198319 | 1095347.12741273 |
| 124 | 981542.757045696 | 941163.23923355 | 1021922.27485784 |
| 125 | 938674.58725364 | 896722.14997822 | 980627.02452906 |
| 126 | 1028064.58716711 | 981896.856511124 | 1074232.3178231 |
| 127 | 844658.726667276 | 800903.499963127 | 888413.953371425 |
| 128 | 353769.924801058 | 318451.748058775 | 389088.101543340 |
| 129 | 877677.315879882 | 819381.982782185 | 935972.648977579 |
| 130 | 971769.667736124 | 907311.441741026 | 1036227.89373122 |
| 131 | 897942.62113054 | 835813.258045257 | 960071.984215824 |
| 132 | 976153.976366589 | 916801.596285473 | 1035506.35644770 |
