| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.129074112205745 |
| beta | 0.000500934054976076 |
| gamma | 0.322462326005777 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 530 | 488.836959000463 | 41.163040999537 |
| 14 | 883 | 814.769180136285 | 68.230819863715 |
| 15 | 894 | 834.649242011631 | 59.3507579883687 |
| 16 | 1045 | 999.192165248972 | 45.8078347510281 |
| 17 | 1199 | 1167.60153495692 | 31.3984650430839 |
| 18 | 1287 | 1265.87492766457 | 21.1250723354269 |
| 19 | 1565 | 1471.68364055591 | 93.3163594440866 |
| 20 | 1577 | 1416.83455770272 | 160.165442297285 |
| 21 | 1076 | 1269.50663614626 | -193.506636146263 |
| 22 | 918 | 1065.72885869940 | -147.728858699401 |
| 23 | 1008 | 1084.2152672451 | -76.2152672451004 |
| 24 | 1063 | 1035.03817558380 | 27.9618244161961 |
| 25 | 544 | 582.173549598269 | -38.1735495982692 |
| 26 | 635 | 950.279703272534 | -315.279703272534 |
| 27 | 804 | 917.8820476586 | -113.882047658599 |
| 28 | 980 | 1063.43198202462 | -83.4319820246214 |
| 29 | 1018 | 1215.98034271037 | -197.980342710371 |
| 30 | 1064 | 1282.32424149349 | -218.324241493494 |
| 31 | 1404 | 1473.86706678750 | -69.8670667874956 |
| 32 | 1286 | 1417.88509443065 | -131.885094430645 |
| 33 | 1104 | 1147.80505570157 | -43.8050557015699 |
| 34 | 999 | 982.52338970301 | 16.4766102969901 |
| 35 | 996 | 1041.06932055722 | -45.0693205572168 |
| 36 | 1015 | 1025.42181012321 | -10.4218101232145 |
| 37 | 615 | 559.20355897905 | 55.7964410209495 |
| 38 | 722 | 857.541913373212 | -135.541913373212 |
| 39 | 832 | 905.609678642965 | -73.6096786429654 |
| 40 | 977 | 1069.12052501393 | -92.1205250139342 |
| 41 | 1270 | 1190.32512746677 | 79.6748725332277 |
| 42 | 1437 | 1289.52881127662 | 147.471188723384 |
| 43 | 1520 | 1593.65374322978 | -73.6537432297798 |
| 44 | 1708 | 1511.62678785961 | 196.373212140391 |
| 45 | 1151 | 1278.03622592088 | -127.036225920883 |
| 46 | 934 | 1101.04125811502 | -167.041258115022 |
| 47 | 1159 | 1121.09214750614 | 37.9078524938625 |
| 48 | 1209 | 1124.76644821184 | 84.2335517881563 |
| 49 | 699 | 638.42763830089 | 60.5723616991103 |
| 50 | 830 | 908.01061953216 | -78.0106195321601 |
| 51 | 996 | 989.483222486196 | 6.51677751380385 |
| 52 | 1124 | 1178.42304517839 | -54.4230451783903 |
| 53 | 1458 | 1375.45353777758 | 82.5464622224167 |
| 54 | 1270 | 1505.99433837198 | -235.994338371978 |
| 55 | 1753 | 1717.65844816864 | 35.3415518313609 |
| 56 | 2258 | 1723.28938701246 | 534.710612987541 |
| 57 | 1208 | 1396.55030916633 | -188.550309166326 |
| 58 | 1241 | 1177.62476199254 | 63.3752380074559 |
| 59 | 1265 | 1298.02429530364 | -33.0242953036384 |
| 60 | 1828 | 1305.41735025192 | 522.582649748082 |
| 61 | 809 | 774.83266094363 | 34.1673390563706 |
| 62 | 997 | 1039.36945363520 | -42.3694536352036 |
| 63 | 1164 | 1168.33975232397 | -4.33975232396506 |
| 64 | 1205 | 1367.08090456414 | -162.080904564136 |
| 65 | 1538 | 1626.2868854581 | -88.2868854581002 |
| 66 | 1513 | 1646.33742562572 | -133.337425625715 |
| 67 | 1378 | 1994.69039876606 | -616.690398766055 |
| 68 | 2083 | 2063.16936900672 | 19.8306309932782 |
| 69 | 1357 | 1427.09831942623 | -70.0983194262324 |
| 70 | 1536 | 1284.01934919386 | 251.980650806142 |
| 71 | 1526 | 1408.61492913749 | 117.385070862512 |
| 72 | 1376 | 1600.33223898861 | -224.332238988606 |
| 73 | 779 | 810.845167194428 | -31.8451671944277 |
| 74 | 1005 | 1050.49573693738 | -45.4957369373781 |
| 75 | 1193 | 1192.70937440726 | 0.290625592740071 |
| 76 | 1522 | 1350.22596016804 | 171.774039831964 |
| 77 | 1539 | 1688.93680276946 | -149.936802769462 |
| 78 | 1546 | 1688.23615636363 | -142.236156363628 |
| 79 | 2116 | 1902.69253111387 | 213.307468886131 |
| 80 | 2326 | 2290.59267200516 | 35.4073279948379 |
| 81 | 1596 | 1558.17294232762 | 37.8270576723808 |
| 82 | 1356 | 1511.12962890956 | -155.129628909558 |
| 83 | 1553 | 1548.21141631436 | 4.78858368563692 |
| 84 | 1613 | 1632.52638986099 | -19.5263898609867 |
| 85 | 814 | 866.013219630146 | -52.0132196301461 |
| 86 | 1150 | 1117.02597020484 | 32.9740297951616 |
| 87 | 1225 | 1295.3822019996 | -70.3822019995996 |
| 88 | 1691 | 1506.36868386985 | 184.631316130150 |
| 89 | 1759 | 1772.35514762486 | -13.3551476248631 |
| 90 | 1754 | 1791.71838832041 | -37.718388320415 |
| 91 | 2100 | 2149.20213814788 | -49.202138147878 |
| 92 | 2062 | 2475.75202043459 | -413.75202043459 |
| 93 | 2012 | 1647.94559089079 | 364.054409109214 |
| 94 | 1897 | 1579.19509767656 | 317.804902323442 |
| 95 | 1964 | 1733.09269504805 | 230.907304951946 |
| 96 | 2186 | 1848.74678049347 | 337.25321950653 |
| 97 | 966 | 990.637162874265 | -24.6371628742654 |
| 98 | 1549 | 1315.29531853704 | 233.704681462955 |
| 99 | 1538 | 1516.30565950867 | 21.6943404913313 |
| 100 | 1612 | 1865.89816072850 | -253.898160728497 |
| 101 | 2078 | 2047.41388426638 | 30.5861157336158 |
| 102 | 2137 | 2065.97205856532 | 71.0279414346755 |
| 103 | 2907 | 2492.28903847496 | 414.710961525036 |
| 104 | 2249 | 2815.40117186052 | -566.401171860515 |
| 105 | 1883 | 2075.63354545762 | -192.633545457625 |
| 106 | 1739 | 1899.78141450023 | -160.781414500229 |
| 107 | 1828 | 1973.93893170057 | -145.938931700572 |
| 108 | 1868 | 2075.68898702426 | -207.688987024259 |
| 109 | 1138 | 1014.12589478372 | 123.874105216275 |
| 110 | 1430 | 1448.76050845518 | -18.7605084551751 |
| 111 | 1809 | 1560.14900034589 | 248.850999654105 |
| 112 | 1763 | 1871.68832633665 | -108.688326336651 |
| 113 | 2200 | 2167.13957332622 | 32.8604266737848 |
| 114 | 2067 | 2197.97278776171 | -130.972787761711 |
| 115 | 2503 | 2712.60059138710 | -209.600591387104 |
| 116 | 2141 | 2675.05191677941 | -534.051916779406 |
| 117 | 2103 | 2038.62262546849 | 64.377374531513 |
| 118 | 1972 | 1900.48654221681 | 71.5134577831939 |
| 119 | 2181 | 2011.98252307719 | 169.017476922813 |
| 120 | 2344 | 2141.93416303978 | 202.065836960222 |
| 121 | 970 | 1141.29282653254 | -171.292826532538 |
| 122 | 1199 | 1516.61682348787 | -317.616823487874 |
| 123 | 1718 | 1667.41007847986 | 50.5899215201352 |
| 124 | 1683 | 1853.85438536200 | -170.854385361998 |
| 125 | 2025 | 2181.80535089781 | -156.805350897809 |
| 126 | 2051 | 2142.05746174646 | -91.0574617464604 |
| 127 | 2439 | 2635.84388087434 | -196.84388087434 |
| 128 | 2353 | 2505.50343662525 | -152.503436625251 |
| 129 | 2230 | 2081.28217536558 | 148.717824634422 |
| 130 | 1852 | 1953.21950775809 | -101.219507758093 |
| 131 | 2147 | 2069.86037234918 | 77.1396276508167 |
| 132 | 2286 | 2196.40493747476 | 89.5950625252426 |
| 133 | 1007 | 1083.99651255359 | -76.9965125535855 |
| 134 | 1665 | 1428.83744025122 | 236.16255974878 |
| 135 | 1642 | 1769.46825088515 | -127.468250885149 |
| 136 | 1518 | 1874.24915300942 | -356.24915300942 |
| 137 | 1831 | 2190.2679331991 | -359.267933199102 |
| 138 | 2207 | 2142.48916888812 | 64.5108311118788 |
| 139 | 2822 | 2636.13763741813 | 185.862362581871 |
| 140 | 2393 | 2562.88994936457 | -169.889949364575 |
| 141 | 2306 | 2207.28049642154 | 98.7195035784575 |
| 142 | 1785 | 1994.05865432917 | -209.058654329167 |
| 143 | 2047 | 2151.59126451920 | -104.591264519196 |
| 144 | 2171 | 2259.86660013019 | -88.8666001301949 |
| 145 | 1212 | 1069.36234318583 | 142.637656814169 |
| 146 | 1335 | 1543.63471134505 | -208.634711345049 |
| 147 | 2011 | 1723.1722805291 | 287.827719470902 |
| 148 | 1860 | 1815.88330158162 | 44.1166984183819 |
| 149 | 1954 | 2199.31242062952 | -245.312420629516 |
| 150 | 2152 | 2291.62126002699 | -139.621260026993 |
| 151 | 2835 | 2816.83716572309 | 18.1628342769109 |
| 152 | 2224 | 2613.27011602859 | -389.270116028592 |
| 153 | 2182 | 2297.00876454059 | -115.008764540588 |
| 154 | 1992 | 1963.95558691649 | 28.0444130835087 |
| 155 | 2389 | 2187.4827704661 | 201.517229533898 |
| 156 | 2724 | 2345.20316503874 | 378.79683496126 |
| 157 | 891 | 1193.38919948532 | -302.389199485323 |
| 158 | 1247 | 1518.69079291897 | -271.690792918967 |
| 159 | 2017 | 1833.62108883129 | 183.378911168708 |
| 160 | 2257 | 1844.12159399804 | 412.878406001957 |
| 161 | 2255 | 2202.66838186641 | 52.3316181335927 |
| 162 | 2255 | 2370.2214183267 | -115.221418326702 |
| 163 | 3057 | 2973.89042768552 | 83.1095723144804 |
| 164 | 3330 | 2643.08637504267 | 686.91362495733 |
| 165 | 1896 | 2519.81158383102 | -623.81158383102 |
| 166 | 2096 | 2136.98116213232 | -40.9811621323188 |
| 167 | 2374 | 2419.93500335947 | -45.9350033594742 |
| 168 | 2535 | 2603.90129612003 | -68.9012961200287 |
| 169 | 1041 | 1147.16878251544 | -106.168782515444 |
| 170 | 1728 | 1526.39053984195 | 201.609460158049 |
| 171 | 2201 | 2077.77000369211 | 123.229996307889 |
| 172 | 2455 | 2145.41238810246 | 309.587611897541 |
| 173 | 2204 | 2405.83168961193 | -201.831689611933 |
| 174 | 2660 | 2500.46608959121 | 159.533910408795 |
| 175 | 3670 | 3251.46625919908 | 418.533740800921 |
| 176 | 2665 | 3108.31874948913 | -443.318749489129 |
| 177 | 2639 | 2439.44977608105 | 199.550223918949 |
| 178 | 2226 | 2313.34448108028 | -87.3444810802825 |
| 179 | 2586 | 2612.52680620413 | -26.526806204125 |
| 180 | 2684 | 2807.31910509382 | -123.319105093822 |
| 181 | 1185 | 1210.11578193156 | -25.1157819315579 |
| 182 | 1749 | 1729.34102376120 | 19.6589762388023 |
| 183 | 2459 | 2272.62009321613 | 186.379906783869 |
| 184 | 2618 | 2406.4619875861 | 211.538012413898 |
| 185 | 2585 | 2514.64061854919 | 70.3593814508117 |
| 186 | 3310 | 2763.70256109067 | 546.297438909328 |
| 187 | 3923 | 3717.7065728895 | 205.293427110496 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 3260.0287353497 | 3093.57334924266 | 3426.48412145673 |
| 189 | 2777.93569256481 | 2605.63435610249 | 2950.23702902713 |
| 190 | 2520.71421309991 | 2343.02905372457 | 2698.39937247526 |
| 191 | 2882.03106413825 | 2691.53511577736 | 3072.52701249914 |
| 192 | 3070.01537519007 | 2868.84272802585 | 3271.18802235429 |
| 193 | 1339.16689636985 | 1164.13049948455 | 1514.20329325516 |
| 194 | 1935.49287653904 | 1736.78847449315 | 2134.19727858494 |
| 195 | 2588.33121789624 | 2357.0350192507 | 2819.62741654178 |
| 196 | 2715.31191339544 | 2472.63023185579 | 2957.99359493509 |
| 197 | 2759.20525137023 | 2509.19764887846 | 3009.21285386200 |
| 198 | 3159.38708623222 | 2882.63787293661 | 3436.13629952782 |
| 199 | 3991.07026379319 | 3704.3495951894 | 4277.79093239699 |
