| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0694442869754801 |
| beta | 0.095535532556981 |
| gamma | 0.274990418870521 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 15028 | 14321.6838979972 | 706.316102002796 |
| 14 | 17977 | 17069.4177170777 | 907.582282922289 |
| 15 | 20008 | 19050.8472294842 | 957.152770515797 |
| 16 | 21354 | 20594.1469296704 | 759.853070329562 |
| 17 | 19498 | 19004.1326734229 | 493.867326577136 |
| 18 | 22125 | 21757.4677963716 | 367.532203628394 |
| 19 | 25817 | 24290.9139807189 | 1526.08601928110 |
| 20 | 28779 | 25468.2863781914 | 3310.71362180858 |
| 21 | 20960 | 23042.1560743632 | -2082.15607436320 |
| 22 | 22254 | 24523.2253877757 | -2269.22538777566 |
| 23 | 27392 | 28844.4884130028 | -1452.48841300276 |
| 24 | 29945 | 31899.8472081405 | -1954.84720814051 |
| 25 | 16933 | 16195.4055778487 | 737.594422151315 |
| 26 | 17892 | 19314.1959907242 | -1422.19599072425 |
| 27 | 20533 | 21332.7820221934 | -799.782022193409 |
| 28 | 23569 | 22812.3942319425 | 756.60576805746 |
| 29 | 22417 | 20958.6351217714 | 1458.36487822863 |
| 30 | 22084 | 23985.7996975873 | -1901.79969758735 |
| 31 | 26580 | 26864.8500198210 | -284.850019821031 |
| 32 | 27454 | 28432.5724659408 | -978.572465940793 |
| 33 | 24081 | 23975.6939369364 | 105.306063063606 |
| 34 | 23451 | 25609.0510861706 | -2158.05108617062 |
| 35 | 28991 | 30404.3276855657 | -1413.32768556568 |
| 36 | 31386 | 33461.1562610029 | -2075.15626100286 |
| 37 | 16896 | 17419.7937823049 | -523.793782304892 |
| 38 | 20045 | 19987.1228289079 | 57.8771710920773 |
| 39 | 23471 | 22355.3341863531 | 1115.66581364689 |
| 40 | 21747 | 24450.3158901976 | -2703.31589019757 |
| 41 | 25621 | 22387.2906652570 | 3233.70933474305 |
| 42 | 23859 | 24738.7662104173 | -879.766210417307 |
| 43 | 25500 | 28245.7602996728 | -2745.76029967275 |
| 44 | 30998 | 29465.5562294483 | 1532.44377055173 |
| 45 | 24475 | 25204.5757707592 | -729.575770759151 |
| 46 | 23145 | 26197.9615570337 | -3052.96155703366 |
| 47 | 29701 | 31277.9213466602 | -1576.92134666025 |
| 48 | 34365 | 34202.1819789929 | 162.818021007057 |
| 49 | 17556 | 18008.2929235411 | -452.292923541081 |
| 50 | 22077 | 20811.998886238 | 1265.00111376199 |
| 51 | 25702 | 23622.3890923831 | 2079.61090761694 |
| 52 | 22214 | 24825.295149348 | -2611.29514934800 |
| 53 | 26886 | 24240.3688883381 | 2645.63111166187 |
| 54 | 23191 | 25513.8403421907 | -2322.84034219074 |
| 55 | 27831 | 28509.5516194940 | -678.551619493963 |
| 56 | 35406 | 31036.4246815116 | 4369.57531848839 |
| 57 | 23195 | 26154.5448188867 | -2959.54481888669 |
| 58 | 25110 | 26383.8234382992 | -1273.82343829916 |
| 59 | 30009 | 32191.5934576834 | -2182.59345768342 |
| 60 | 36242 | 35640.0809205167 | 601.919079483254 |
| 61 | 18450 | 18627.0347185142 | -177.034718514227 |
| 62 | 21845 | 22015.8591144154 | -170.859114415376 |
| 63 | 26488 | 25017.0182578141 | 1470.98174218589 |
| 64 | 22394 | 24940.7459548851 | -2546.74595488509 |
| 65 | 28057 | 25704.2318722062 | 2352.76812779382 |
| 66 | 25451 | 25647.1201444505 | -196.120144450495 |
| 67 | 24872 | 29319.6525240786 | -4447.65252407861 |
| 68 | 33424 | 32916.9056485469 | 507.094351453132 |
| 69 | 24052 | 25720.7714886625 | -1668.77148866251 |
| 70 | 28449 | 26433.8521901894 | 2015.14780981059 |
| 71 | 33533 | 32331.323058746 | 1201.67694125399 |
| 72 | 37351 | 36839.9276251758 | 511.072374824173 |
| 73 | 19969 | 19112.5594963099 | 856.440503690137 |
| 74 | 21701 | 22683.4127434211 | -982.412743421144 |
| 75 | 26249 | 26141.2090244468 | 107.790975553195 |
| 76 | 24493 | 24890.2582868928 | -397.25828689276 |
| 77 | 24603 | 27118.6027141374 | -2515.60271413739 |
| 78 | 26485 | 26022.1738900225 | 462.826109977508 |
| 79 | 30723 | 28656.21437062 | 2066.78562938001 |
| 80 | 34569 | 34157.3975312452 | 411.602468754798 |
| 81 | 26689 | 26144.2559703611 | 544.744029638925 |
| 82 | 26157 | 28046.0543017333 | -1889.05430173325 |
| 83 | 32064 | 33630.5321022938 | -1566.53210229376 |
| 84 | 38870 | 37851.1246030351 | 1018.87539696486 |
| 85 | 21337 | 19799.2154036043 | 1537.78459639566 |
| 86 | 19419 | 23019.9361331425 | -3600.9361331425 |
| 87 | 23166 | 26616.3705380594 | -3450.37053805939 |
| 88 | 28286 | 24930.6731984136 | 3355.32680158635 |
| 89 | 24570 | 26876.3198706050 | -2306.31987060505 |
| 90 | 24001 | 26530.5278871889 | -2529.52788718886 |
| 91 | 33151 | 29337.8579892499 | 3813.14201075008 |
| 92 | 24878 | 34540.1322844895 | -9662.1322844895 |
| 93 | 26804 | 25877.6112577099 | 926.388742290103 |
| 94 | 28967 | 27079.9001262697 | 1887.09987373032 |
| 95 | 33311 | 32890.1509824285 | 420.849017571491 |
| 96 | 40226 | 37812.6176014525 | 2413.38239854750 |
| 97 | 20504 | 20053.1465526189 | 450.853447381141 |
| 98 | 23060 | 21813.624703147 | 1246.37529685299 |
| 99 | 23562 | 25774.3546544131 | -2212.35465441307 |
| 100 | 27562 | 25905.0342865801 | 1656.96571341987 |
| 101 | 23940 | 26263.7162865795 | -2323.71628657951 |
| 102 | 24584 | 25838.5724347560 | -1254.57243475605 |
| 103 | 34303 | 30346.085094641 | 3956.91490535902 |
| 104 | 25517 | 32052.206096688 | -6535.20609668801 |
| 105 | 23494 | 26286.2819356077 | -2792.28193560765 |
| 106 | 29095 | 27447.7617537916 | 1647.23824620836 |
| 107 | 32903 | 32813.0979751172 | 89.902024882802 |
| 108 | 34379 | 38150.9633006975 | -3771.96330069753 |
| 109 | 16991 | 19758.4482116896 | -2767.44821168961 |
| 110 | 21109 | 21370.7489611716 | -261.748961171554 |
| 111 | 23740 | 24135.6278026146 | -395.627802614552 |
| 112 | 25552 | 25253.8253045917 | 298.174695408266 |
| 113 | 21752 | 24445.4966791872 | -2693.49667918718 |
| 114 | 20294 | 24178.5442988199 | -3884.54429881989 |
| 115 | 29009 | 29342.9118730520 | -333.911873051951 |
| 116 | 25500 | 27983.9735771297 | -2483.97357712966 |
| 117 | 24166 | 23648.7828814765 | 517.217118523466 |
| 118 | 26960 | 25908.4107399193 | 1051.58926008070 |
| 119 | 31222 | 30365.3107838664 | 856.689216133629 |
| 120 | 38641 | 34310.5601164817 | 4330.43988351834 |
| 121 | 14672 | 17809.4104846895 | -3137.41048468947 |
| 122 | 17543 | 19821.1911947822 | -2278.19119478216 |
| 123 | 25453 | 22127.7860887435 | 3325.21391125649 |
| 124 | 32683 | 23538.7487686183 | 9144.25123138172 |
| 125 | 22449 | 22655.6270874520 | -206.627087451965 |
| 126 | 22316 | 22283.8515406770 | 32.1484593230489 |
| 127 | 27595 | 28516.3079870321 | -921.307987032145 |
| 128 | 25451 | 26667.2264563353 | -1216.22645633532 |
| 129 | 25421 | 23316.9367093895 | 2104.06329061055 |
| 130 | 25288 | 25861.0196273971 | -573.019627397141 |
| 131 | 32568 | 30156.9882505198 | 2411.01174948024 |
| 132 | 35110 | 35137.565415337 | -27.5654153369687 |
| 133 | 16052 | 16751.0817364431 | -699.081736443146 |
| 134 | 22146 | 19190.1685127735 | 2955.83148722647 |
| 135 | 21198 | 23460.9607131809 | -2262.96071318091 |
| 136 | 19543 | 26002.1155805422 | -6459.11558054222 |
| 137 | 22084 | 21756.9543994932 | 327.045600506794 |
| 138 | 23816 | 21470.4768316877 | 2345.52316831228 |
| 139 | 29961 | 27431.6831055787 | 2529.31689442132 |
| 140 | 26773 | 25798.4071066050 | 974.592893394962 |
| 141 | 26635 | 23508.6124424921 | 3126.38755750789 |
| 142 | 26972 | 25452.6794451833 | 1519.32055481666 |
| 143 | 30207 | 30688.9002941465 | -481.900294146508 |
| 144 | 38687 | 34849.2569374738 | 3837.74306252616 |
| 145 | 16974 | 16598.5140631523 | 375.485936847686 |
| 146 | 21697 | 20108.9548463808 | 1588.04515361924 |
| 147 | 24179 | 22998.3684024461 | 1180.63159755394 |
| 148 | 23757 | 24772.5065126522 | -1015.50651265220 |
| 149 | 25013 | 22670.9484482263 | 2342.05155177366 |
| 150 | 24019 | 23159.0838924448 | 859.916107555211 |
| 151 | 30345 | 29448.8769675645 | 896.123032435542 |
| 152 | 24488 | 27314.5303480323 | -2826.53034803232 |
| 153 | 25156 | 25311.9440749653 | -155.944074965279 |
| 154 | 25650 | 26713.8051059842 | -1063.80510598416 |
| 155 | 30923 | 31428.1408246841 | -505.140824684077 |
| 156 | 37240 | 36888.4072085374 | 351.592791462594 |
| 157 | 17466 | 17085.1710804427 | 380.828919557305 |
| 158 | 19463 | 21009.6016535166 | -1546.60165351658 |
| 159 | 24352 | 23607.114860479 | 744.885139521 |
| 160 | 26805 | 24793.4542418115 | 2011.54575818852 |
| 161 | 25236 | 23744.5509464239 | 1491.44905357606 |
| 162 | 24735 | 23797.6777859469 | 937.322214053132 |
| 163 | 29356 | 30221.0387410972 | -865.038741097182 |
| 164 | 31234 | 26957.4595080491 | 4276.54049195087 |
| 165 | 22724 | 26134.8563180714 | -3410.85631807141 |
| 166 | 28496 | 27126.78169263 | 1369.21830736998 |
| 167 | 32857 | 32354.7011662801 | 502.29883371988 |
| 168 | 37198 | 38367.4788094046 | -1169.47880940462 |
| 169 | 13652 | 17800.4807464634 | -4148.48074646339 |
| 170 | 22784 | 20965.7756745408 | 1818.22432545915 |
| 171 | 23565 | 24491.7794077116 | -926.77940771158 |
| 172 | 26323 | 25922.4817383618 | 400.518261638212 |
| 173 | 23779 | 24594.0012185227 | -815.001218522746 |
| 174 | 27549 | 24320.0951347851 | 3228.90486521490 |
| 175 | 29660 | 30540.0813835425 | -880.081383542452 |
| 176 | 23356 | 28536.6528561344 | -5180.6528561344 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 177 | 25038.0341657338 | 23551.1201366169 | 26524.9481948507 |
| 178 | 27444.5888076205 | 25909.6411035230 | 28979.5365117179 |
| 179 | 32268.8472810072 | 30651.7679284168 | 33885.9266335975 |
| 180 | 37697.5840114155 | 35959.1394981965 | 39436.0285246345 |
| 181 | 16563.0610231648 | 15008.5863700483 | 18117.5356762813 |
| 182 | 21567.3088333435 | 19888.6554905601 | 23245.9621761269 |
| 183 | 24243.4521592449 | 22440.6456271797 | 26046.2586913101 |
| 184 | 26065.1669681551 | 24133.3094474779 | 27997.0244888323 |
| 185 | 24378.2846038248 | 22419.1719526026 | 26337.3972550471 |
| 186 | 25176.5242972552 | 23099.7428648341 | 27253.3057296764 |
| 187 | 30040.6668360566 | 27638.7196072838 | 32442.6140648294 |
| 188 | 26970.0362552440 | 25139.686725396 | 28800.3857850921 |
