| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.124155812050704 |
| beta | 0.0536097781034414 |
| gamma | 0.356465314077196 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2072 | 2006.68440258247 | 65.3155974175252 |
| 14 | 2434 | 2346.51327867726 | 87.4867213227371 |
| 15 | 2956 | 2836.92741456618 | 119.072585433819 |
| 16 | 2828 | 2733.01775093605 | 94.9822490639458 |
| 17 | 2687 | 2642.01053242205 | 44.9894675779456 |
| 18 | 2629 | 2617.15256803355 | 11.8474319664538 |
| 19 | 3150 | 2786.13241341801 | 363.867586581986 |
| 20 | 4119 | 3816.43640110982 | 302.563598890181 |
| 21 | 3030 | 2690.17525022614 | 339.824749773859 |
| 22 | 3055 | 3640.99875004146 | -585.998750041461 |
| 23 | 3821 | 4483.67975777213 | -662.679757772129 |
| 24 | 4001 | 4321.76779125718 | -320.76779125718 |
| 25 | 2529 | 2286.85990746329 | 242.140092536712 |
| 26 | 2472 | 2702.55848685276 | -230.558486852761 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3220.58021592353 | -86.580215923529 |
| 28 | 2789 | 3066.4813098099 | -277.481309809904 |
| 29 | 2758 | 2897.77276404329 | -139.772764043287 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2830.57717652293 | 162.422823477075 |
| 31 | 3282 | 3145.0765775793 | 136.923422420702 |
| 32 | 3437 | 4189.4568929726 | -752.456892972604 |
| 33 | 2804 | 2888.78923666848 | -84.7892366684832 |
| 34 | 3076 | 3487.56067145411 | -411.560671454114 |
| 35 | 3782 | 4319.73779541977 | -537.73779541977 |
| 36 | 3889 | 4262.51394493951 | -373.513944939512 |
| 37 | 2271 | 2371.24121826183 | -100.241218261831 |
| 38 | 2452 | 2580.17404194888 | -128.174041948881 |
| 39 | 3084 | 3132.66698735364 | -48.6669873536439 |
| 40 | 2522 | 2913.08527278898 | -391.085272788984 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2762.20047918135 | 6.79952081864849 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2793.52873253637 | 644.471267463632 |
| 43 | 2839 | 3146.42547274745 | -307.425472747449 |
| 44 | 3746 | 3814.28307101164 | -68.2830710116427 |
| 45 | 2632 | 2812.27343210227 | -180.273432102267 |
| 46 | 2851 | 3273.20390376262 | -422.203903762625 |
| 47 | 3871 | 4025.83722224876 | -154.837222248764 |
| 48 | 3618 | 4053.04567994648 | -435.045679946483 |
| 49 | 2389 | 2275.37685166451 | 113.623148335492 |
| 50 | 2344 | 2492.20793929224 | -148.207939292241 |
| 51 | 2678 | 3047.34185997103 | -369.341859971025 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2681.60552468653 | -189.60552468653 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2671.59250627004 | 186.407493729958 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2905.95801327411 | -659.958013274107 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2785.52464524042 | 14.4753547595806 |
| 56 | 3869 | 3493.0534495958 | 375.946550404201 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2567.30721656218 | 439.692783437817 |
| 58 | 3023 | 3003.90058544109 | 19.099414558912 |
| 59 | 3907 | 3865.1081240935 | 41.8918759065036 |
| 60 | 4209 | 3823.99797686431 | 385.002023135691 |
| 61 | 2353 | 2316.2783716579 | 36.7216283420994 |
| 62 | 2570 | 2441.24990062065 | 128.750099379351 |
| 63 | 2903 | 2968.28129281068 | -65.281292810675 |
| 64 | 2910 | 2692.85915208029 | 217.140847919707 |
| 65 | 3782 | 2863.13365363441 | 918.866346365593 |
| 66 | 2759 | 2924.79122102555 | -165.791221025547 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3110.89015621442 | -179.890156214422 |
| 68 | 3641 | 4011.18604398834 | -370.186043988338 |
| 69 | 2794 | 2939.23060426681 | -145.230604266809 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3192.69618549742 | -122.696185497422 |
| 71 | 3576 | 4097.51371871536 | -521.513718715363 |
| 72 | 4106 | 4097.2866256022 | 8.71337439780109 |
| 73 | 2452 | 2389.90307431267 | 62.0969256873268 |
| 74 | 2206 | 2551.00115020026 | -345.001150200264 |
| 75 | 2488 | 2957.24765734082 | -469.247657340819 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2716.1453476335 | -300.1453476335 |
| 77 | 2534 | 3006.6231439636 | -472.623143963604 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2577.90875343057 | -56.9087534305713 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2735.82123433235 | 357.17876566765 |
| 80 | 3903 | 3552.85181776422 | 350.14818223578 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2693.33987981612 | 213.660120183878 |
| 82 | 3025 | 2974.78434636844 | 50.215653631556 |
| 83 | 3812 | 3724.92260379711 | 87.0773962028907 |
| 84 | 4209 | 3952.10928369196 | 256.890716308043 |
| 85 | 2138 | 2338.05063021236 | -200.050630212359 |
| 86 | 2419 | 2332.48703844692 | 86.5129615530768 |
| 87 | 2622 | 2739.15511764967 | -117.155117649666 |
| 88 | 2912 | 2595.00556722172 | 316.994432778283 |
| 89 | 2708 | 2915.50992618349 | -207.509926183486 |
| 90 | 2798 | 2648.01182325873 | 149.988176741274 |
| 91 | 3254 | 2980.73482507422 | 273.26517492578 |
| 92 | 2895 | 3826.48267808477 | -931.482678084767 |
| 93 | 3263 | 2764.04124349259 | 498.958756507412 |
| 94 | 3736 | 3035.59455896144 | 700.405441038556 |
| 95 | 4077 | 3918.67572839792 | 158.32427160208 |
| 96 | 4097 | 4229.81376411947 | -132.813764119465 |
| 97 | 2175 | 2362.58427851089 | -187.584278510886 |
| 98 | 3138 | 2456.68665562647 | 681.31334437353 |
| 99 | 2823 | 2907.03370140944 | -84.0337014094366 |
| 100 | 2498 | 2911.35163174407 | -413.351631744071 |
| 101 | 2822 | 2987.31679939038 | -165.316799390376 |
| 102 | 2738 | 2834.91846173159 | -96.9184617315932 |
| 103 | 4137 | 3192.55079473644 | 944.449205263558 |
| 104 | 3515 | 3774.56389739263 | -259.563897392635 |
| 105 | 3785 | 3202.96659666942 | 582.033403330578 |
| 106 | 3632 | 3580.64368689807 | 51.3563131019318 |
| 107 | 4504 | 4268.98814790624 | 235.011852093761 |
| 108 | 4451 | 4524.27661165067 | -73.2766116506718 |
| 109 | 2550 | 2498.78777913492 | 51.2122208650844 |
| 110 | 2867 | 2932.91430405926 | -65.9143040592608 |
| 111 | 3458 | 3062.53179323574 | 395.468206764261 |
| 112 | 2961 | 3019.71213819939 | -58.7121381993943 |
| 113 | 3163 | 3246.88031500576 | -83.8803150057574 |
| 114 | 2880 | 3122.87638257488 | -242.876382574884 |
| 115 | 3331 | 3860.99203964259 | -529.992039642589 |
| 116 | 3062 | 3887.90037925996 | -825.900379259963 |
| 117 | 3534 | 3491.87929395788 | 42.1207060421179 |
| 118 | 3622 | 3631.18281892709 | -9.18281892708637 |
| 119 | 4464 | 4365.25842865509 | 98.741571344909 |
| 120 | 5411 | 4497.29671399659 | 913.70328600341 |
| 121 | 2564 | 2578.74666514878 | -14.7466651487766 |
| 122 | 2820 | 2973.61356528424 | -153.613565284244 |
| 123 | 3508 | 3235.34530925175 | 272.654690748249 |
| 124 | 3088 | 3028.52399453481 | 59.4760054651888 |
| 125 | 3299 | 3261.6193104287 | 37.380689571296 |
| 126 | 2939 | 3096.40155017272 | -157.401550172723 |
| 127 | 3320 | 3763.0008003276 | -443.000800327601 |
| 128 | 3418 | 3698.63033380649 | -280.63033380649 |
| 129 | 3604 | 3641.11081164881 | -37.1108116488108 |
| 130 | 3495 | 3758.97660881577 | -263.976608815771 |
| 131 | 4163 | 4514.24377669472 | -351.243776694721 |
| 132 | 4882 | 4837.96371859386 | 44.0362814061373 |
| 133 | 2211 | 2540.77422478325 | -329.774224783253 |
| 134 | 3260 | 2834.20922019999 | 425.790779800008 |
| 135 | 2992 | 3291.53208341414 | -299.532083414142 |
| 136 | 2425 | 2947.75341414884 | -522.753414148842 |
| 137 | 2707 | 3076.47183036255 | -369.471830362551 |
| 138 | 3244 | 2802.82297760127 | 441.177022398728 |
| 139 | 3965 | 3406.54928212812 | 558.450717871879 |
| 140 | 3315 | 3508.84602973994 | -193.84602973994 |
| 141 | 3333 | 3530.68986793644 | -197.689867936445 |
| 142 | 3583 | 3548.22052936961 | 34.7794706303889 |
| 143 | 4021 | 4286.81707791326 | -265.817077913255 |
| 144 | 4904 | 4725.84302036935 | 178.156979630648 |
| 145 | 2252 | 2378.47203106419 | -126.472031064187 |
| 146 | 2952 | 2920.46792025871 | 31.5320797412887 |
| 147 | 3573 | 3090.73098727129 | 482.269012728707 |
| 148 | 3048 | 2771.92875568447 | 276.071244315528 |
| 149 | 3059 | 3059.25805954162 | -0.258059541619787 |
| 150 | 2731 | 3091.30730850174 | -360.307308501737 |
| 151 | 3563 | 3641.73775166279 | -78.7377516627898 |
| 152 | 3092 | 3429.39323341164 | -337.393233411637 |
| 153 | 3478 | 3429.04665965143 | 48.9533403485739 |
| 154 | 3478 | 3548.78189383512 | -70.7818938351211 |
| 155 | 4308 | 4173.95287106012 | 134.047128939877 |
| 156 | 5029 | 4805.03432873576 | 223.965671264239 |
| 157 | 2075 | 2353.67458243103 | -278.674582431029 |
| 158 | 3264 | 2924.5783086329 | 339.421691367099 |
| 159 | 3308 | 3276.12800671071 | 31.871993289285 |
| 160 | 3688 | 2837.66307234422 | 850.336927655776 |
| 161 | 3136 | 3115.64191049181 | 20.3580895081859 |
| 162 | 2824 | 3037.35125485931 | -213.351254859309 |
| 163 | 3644 | 3716.26649725859 | -72.266497258589 |
| 164 | 4694 | 3418.99913678026 | 1275.00086321974 |
| 165 | 2914 | 3769.78903114743 | -855.789031147428 |
| 166 | 3686 | 3754.3729589265 | -68.3729589265013 |
| 167 | 4358 | 4500.77949409156 | -142.779494091558 |
| 168 | 5587 | 5174.72277018426 | 412.277229815739 |
| 169 | 2265 | 2420.543607665 | -155.543607665001 |
| 170 | 3685 | 3267.76220937619 | 417.237790623808 |
| 171 | 3754 | 3560.15730416595 | 193.842695834053 |
| 172 | 3708 | 3380.71195611707 | 327.288043882932 |
| 173 | 3210 | 3334.76665479184 | -124.76665479184 |
| 174 | 3517 | 3159.97382358561 | 357.026176414389 |
| 175 | 3905 | 4030.43434869364 | -125.434348693638 |
| 176 | 3670 | 4150.38515686925 | -480.385156869245 |
| 177 | 4221 | 3594.50268454086 | 626.497315459143 |
| 178 | 4404 | 4044.38453469562 | 359.615465304384 |
| 179 | 5086 | 4905.08847376223 | 180.911526237766 |
| 180 | 5725 | 5904.43843243454 | -179.438432434537 |
| 181 | 2367 | 2611.3595157129 | -244.359515712898 |
| 182 | 3819 | 3733.69998593864 | 85.3000140613608 |
| 183 | 4067 | 3935.14530520931 | 131.854694790689 |
| 184 | 4022 | 3779.80711914581 | 242.192880854191 |
| 185 | 3937 | 3567.46347861794 | 369.536521382058 |
| 186 | 4365 | 3608.92975057157 | 756.070249428426 |
| 187 | 4290 | 4467.98885562927 | -177.988855629271 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 188 | 4481.8087701323 | 4178.07553295887 | 4785.54200730573 |
| 189 | 4319.09458013844 | 4003.09434031588 | 4635.09481996101 |
| 190 | 4649.4897167909 | 4315.80131573456 | 4983.17811784725 |
| 191 | 5498.51133114115 | 5134.15069860457 | 5862.87196367773 |
| 192 | 6459.68754818531 | 6054.43573453662 | 6864.939361834 |
| 193 | 2813.61806306628 | 2484.09217619528 | 3143.14394993728 |
| 194 | 4232.15453554027 | 3843.99328295938 | 4620.31578812116 |
| 195 | 4470.40153230887 | 4055.90918673977 | 4884.89387787797 |
| 196 | 4322.75868422456 | 3898.38269665862 | 4747.1346717905 |
| 197 | 4100.38415613738 | 3670.68868123454 | 4530.07963104021 |
| 198 | 4223.86656629215 | 3769.78557606442 | 4677.94755651987 |
| 199 | 4728.11408053421 | 4323.90560368386 | 5132.32255738456 |
