| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.567263099764252 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 39690 | 41086 | -1396 |
| 3 | 43129 | 40294.1007127291 | 2834.89928727089 |
| 4 | 37863 | 41902.2344699459 | -4039.23446994586 |
| 5 | 35953 | 39610.9258038498 | -3657.92580384976 |
| 6 | 29133 | 37535.9194736503 | -8402.9194736503 |
| 7 | 24693 | 32769.2533259580 | -8076.25332595803 |
| 8 | 22205 | 28187.8928297937 | -5982.89282979373 |
| 9 | 21725 | 24794.0184976076 | -3069.01849760762 |
| 10 | 27192 | 23053.0775514209 | 4138.92244857911 |
| 11 | 21790 | 25400.9355292857 | -3610.93552928573 |
| 12 | 13253 | 23352.5850478942 | -10099.5850478942 |
| 13 | 37702 | 17623.4631272931 | 20078.5368727069 |
| 14 | 30364 | 29013.2761924356 | 1350.72380756437 |
| 15 | 32609 | 29779.4919664400 | 2829.50803356003 |
| 16 | 30212 | 31384.5674643651 | -1172.56746436509 |
| 17 | 29965 | 30719.4132098466 | -754.41320984664 |
| 18 | 28352 | 30291.4624339259 | -1939.46243392594 |
| 19 | 25814 | 29191.2769617808 | -3377.27696178079 |
| 20 | 22414 | 27275.4723636786 | -4861.47236367862 |
| 21 | 20506 | 24517.7384812400 | -4011.73848124004 |
| 22 | 28806 | 22242.0272749283 | 6563.97272507172 |
| 23 | 22228 | 25965.5267897205 | -3737.52678972047 |
| 24 | 13971 | 23845.3657575317 | -9874.3657575317 |
| 25 | 36845 | 18244.0024297083 | 18600.9975702917 |
| 26 | 35338 | 28795.6619701393 | 6542.33802986072 |
| 27 | 35022 | 32506.8889206636 | 2515.11107933638 |
| 28 | 34777 | 33933.6186277794 | 843.38137222061 |
| 29 | 26887 | 34412.0377592687 | -7525.03775926869 |
| 30 | 23970 | 30143.3615141029 | -6173.36151410289 |
| 31 | 22780 | 26641.4413256475 | -3861.44132564755 |
| 32 | 17351 | 24450.9881497029 | -7099.98814970293 |
| 33 | 21382 | 20423.426863613 | 958.573136387007 |
| 34 | 24561 | 20967.1900323106 | 3593.80996768937 |
| 35 | 17409 | 23005.8258145458 | -5596.82581454577 |
| 36 | 11514 | 19830.9530541459 | -8316.95305414595 |
| 37 | 31514 | 15113.0524840574 | 16400.9475159426 |
| 38 | 27071 | 24416.7048110218 | 2654.29518897821 |
| 39 | 29462 | 25922.3885276109 | 3539.61147238909 |
| 40 | 26105 | 27930.2795033995 | -1825.27950339946 |
| 41 | 22397 | 26894.8657943649 | -4497.86579436492 |
| 42 | 23843 | 24343.3925015299 | -500.392501529877 |
| 43 | 21705 | 24059.5383000132 | -2354.53830001325 |
| 44 | 18089 | 22723.8956054341 | -4634.89560543408 |
| 45 | 20764 | 20094.6903572118 | 669.309642788168 |
| 46 | 25316 | 20474.3650198820 | 4841.63498011805 |
| 47 | 17704 | 23220.8458866307 | -5516.84588663075 |
| 48 | 15548 | 20091.3427880589 | -4543.34278805893 |
| 49 | 28029 | 17514.0720748131 | 10514.9279251869 |
| 50 | 29383 | 23478.8026834523 | 5904.1973165477 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26828.0359548569 | 9609.96404514308 |
| 52 | 32034 | 32279.4139477278 | -245.413947727800 |
| 53 | 22679 | 32140.1996710143 | -9461.19967101435 |
| 54 | 24319 | 26773.2102181462 | -2454.21021814623 |
| 55 | 18004 | 25381.0273223275 | -7377.0273223275 |
| 56 | 17537 | 21196.3119364184 | -3659.31193641842 |
| 57 | 20366 | 19120.5193043614 | 1245.48069563862 |
| 58 | 22782 | 19827.0345444659 | 2954.96545553412 |
| 59 | 19169 | 21503.2774084684 | -2334.27740846845 |
| 60 | 13807 | 20179.1279700310 | -6372.12797003097 |
| 61 | 29743 | 16564.4549056567 | 13178.5450943433 |
| 62 | 25591 | 24040.1572462569 | 1550.84275374313 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24919.8931139921 | 4176.10688600787 |
| 64 | 26482 | 27288.8444510958 | -806.844451095792 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26831.1513667396 | -4426.15136673961 |
| 66 | 27044 | 24320.3590224171 | 2723.64097758288 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25865.3800460057 | -7895.38004600572 |
| 68 | 18730 | 21386.6222872917 | -2656.62228729169 |
| 69 | 19684 | 19879.6184936998 | -195.618493699811 |
| 70 | 19785 | 19768.6513405924 | 16.3486594075584 |
| 71 | 18479 | 19777.9253318050 | -1298.92533180496 |
| 72 | 10698 | 19041.0929217230 | -8343.09292172297 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 14308.3641693252 | 1802.46543534152 | 26814.2629033089 |
| 74 | 14308.3641693252 | -69.5443314614422 | 28686.2726701119 |
| 75 | 14308.3641693252 | -1724.44602007488 | 30341.1743587253 |
| 76 | 14308.3641693252 | -3223.82771536706 | 31840.5560540175 |
| 77 | 14308.3641693252 | -4604.71336961614 | 33221.4417082665 |
| 78 | 14308.3641693252 | -5891.41928759199 | 34508.1476262424 |
| 79 | 14308.3641693252 | -7100.93290971697 | 35717.6612483674 |
| 80 | 14308.3641693252 | -8245.67651368817 | 36862.4048523386 |
| 81 | 14308.3641693252 | -9335.05988142007 | 37951.7882200705 |
| 82 | 14308.3641693252 | -10376.4135399372 | 38993.1418785876 |
| 83 | 14308.3641693252 | -11375.5802370162 | 39992.3085756666 |
| 84 | 14308.3641693252 | -12337.3062103139 | 40954.0345489643 |
