| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999924589277296 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 283.3 | 278.1 | 5.19999999999999 |
| 3 | 287 | 283.299607864242 | 3.70039213575802 |
| 4 | 287.9 | 286.999720950755 | 0.900279049245228 |
| 5 | 279.7 | 287.899932109306 | -8.19993210930625 |
| 6 | 273.2 | 279.700618362806 | -6.50061836280645 |
| 7 | 272.6 | 273.200490216329 | -0.600490216328694 |
| 8 | 274.8 | 272.600045283401 | 2.19995471659877 |
| 9 | 277.2 | 274.799834099825 | 2.40016590017507 |
| 10 | 277.5 | 277.199819001755 | 0.300180998245196 |
| 11 | 278.7 | 277.499977363134 | 1.20002263686604 |
| 12 | 279 | 278.699909505426 | 0.300090494574306 |
| 13 | 280.1 | 278.999977369959 | 1.10002263004111 |
| 14 | 280.8 | 280.099917046498 | 0.700082953501521 |
| 15 | 280.1 | 280.799947206239 | -0.699947206238505 |
| 16 | 270.5 | 280.100052783525 | -9.60005278352469 |
| 17 | 260 | 270.500723946918 | -10.5007239469184 |
| 18 | 258.2 | 260.000791867182 | -1.80079186718177 |
| 19 | 260.1 | 258.200135799016 | 1.89986420098387 |
| 20 | 262.2 | 260.099856729868 | 2.10014327013238 |
| 21 | 263.4 | 262.199841626678 | 1.20015837332181 |
| 22 | 264.7 | 263.399909495190 | 1.30009050481033 |
| 23 | 267.4 | 264.699901959235 | 2.70009804076449 |
| 24 | 266.8 | 267.399796383655 | -0.59979638365536 |
| 25 | 265.2 | 266.800045231079 | -1.60004523107875 |
| 26 | 262.5 | 265.200120660567 | -2.70012066056722 |
| 27 | 255 | 262.500203618050 | -7.50020361805036 |
| 28 | 252.8 | 255.000565595775 | -2.20056559577526 |
| 29 | 249.6 | 252.800165946242 | -3.20016594624195 |
| 30 | 254.2 | 249.600241326827 | 4.59975867317323 |
| 31 | 259.4 | 254.199653128874 | 5.20034687112579 |
| 32 | 260.8 | 259.399607838084 | 1.40039216191593 |
| 33 | 261.6 | 260.799894395415 | 0.800105604585042 |
| 34 | 257.2 | 261.599939663458 | -4.39993966345816 |
| 35 | 249.8 | 257.20033180263 | -7.40033180262986 |
| 36 | 235.2 | 249.800558064369 | -14.6005580643695 |
| 37 | 227.4 | 235.201101038635 | -7.8011010386355 |
| 38 | 223.1 | 227.400588286667 | -4.30058828666722 |
| 39 | 221.6 | 223.100324310471 | -1.50032431047077 |
| 40 | 218.5 | 221.600113140541 | -3.10011314054054 |
| 41 | 220.1 | 218.500233781772 | 1.59976621822761 |
| 42 | 222.1 | 220.099879360473 | 2.00012063952667 |
| 43 | 222.9 | 222.099849169457 | 0.800150830542918 |
| 44 | 222.8 | 222.899939660048 | -0.0999396600475961 |
| 45 | 222.1 | 222.800007536522 | -0.700007536522008 |
| 46 | 209 | 222.100052788074 | -13.1000527880742 |
| 47 | 201.7 | 209.000987884448 | -7.30098788444823 |
| 48 | 204.5 | 201.700550572773 | 2.79944942722722 |
| 49 | 208.7 | 204.499788891496 | 4.20021110850445 |
| 50 | 213 | 208.699683259045 | 4.3003167409552 |
| 51 | 218.6 | 212.999675710007 | 5.6003242899933 |
| 52 | 221.9 | 218.599577675498 | 3.30042232450211 |
| 53 | 224.6 | 221.899751112767 | 2.70024888723270 |
| 54 | 226.8 | 224.59979637228 | 2.20020362772007 |
| 55 | 229.6 | 226.799834081054 | 2.80016591894565 |
| 56 | 231.4 | 229.599788837464 | 1.80021116253565 |
| 57 | 229.1 | 231.399864244775 | -2.29986424477525 |
| 58 | 232.7 | 229.100173434425 | 3.59982656557517 |
| 59 | 236.6 | 232.699728534477 | 3.90027146552293 |
| 60 | 242.2 | 236.59970587771 | 5.60029412228994 |
| 61 | 251.5 | 242.199577677773 | 9.30042232222712 |
| 62 | 261.5 | 251.499298648431 | 10.0007013515688 |
| 63 | 266.4 | 261.499245839884 | 4.90075416011643 |
| 64 | 280.9 | 266.399630430587 | 14.500369569413 |
| 65 | 294.4 | 280.898906516651 | 13.5010934833487 |
| 66 | 308.8 | 294.398981872783 | 14.4010181272169 |
| 67 | 328.8 | 308.798914008815 | 20.0010859911847 |
| 68 | 348.2 | 328.798491703651 | 19.4015082963494 |
| 69 | 365.9 | 348.198536918238 | 17.7014630817622 |
| 70 | 387.5 | 365.898665119876 | 21.6013348801239 |
| 71 | 395.9 | 387.498371027725 | 8.40162897227464 |
| 72 | 395.8 | 395.899366427087 | -0.0993664270872614 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 395.800007493294 | 381.842329321405 | 409.757685665183 |
| 74 | 395.800007493294 | 376.061613980661 | 415.538401005928 |
| 75 | 395.800007493294 | 371.625815118592 | 419.974199867997 |
| 76 | 395.800007493294 | 367.886229972531 | 423.713785014058 |
| 77 | 395.800007493294 | 364.591573152747 | 427.008441833841 |
| 78 | 395.800007493294 | 361.612966490923 | 429.987048495665 |
| 79 | 395.800007493294 | 358.873849136279 | 432.726165850309 |
| 80 | 395.800007493294 | 356.324336890796 | 435.275678095792 |
| 81 | 395.800007493294 | 353.929779788797 | 437.670235197791 |
| 82 | 395.800007493294 | 351.664949245502 | 439.935065741086 |
| 83 | 395.800007493294 | 349.510799625309 | 442.08921536128 |
| 84 | 395.800007493294 | 347.452534306424 | 444.147480680164 |
