| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.369649244277171 |
| beta | 0.00993226516517318 |
| gamma | 0.570305179539606 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2072 | 2006.68440258248 | 65.3155974175247 |
| 14 | 2434 | 2364.80808988699 | 69.1919101130079 |
| 15 | 2956 | 2875.65737218089 | 80.3426278191091 |
| 16 | 2828 | 2782.88890432896 | 45.1110956710413 |
| 17 | 2687 | 2692.76062571217 | -5.76062571216744 |
| 18 | 2629 | 2657.54308286388 | -28.5430828638755 |
| 19 | 3150 | 2813.98415850912 | 336.015841490876 |
| 20 | 4119 | 3954.81928031406 | 164.180719685939 |
| 21 | 3030 | 2797.84170833199 | 232.158291668007 |
| 22 | 3055 | 3833.43262096272 | -778.432620962715 |
| 23 | 3821 | 4448.03815236594 | -627.038152365939 |
| 24 | 4001 | 4136.17590677012 | -135.175906770116 |
| 25 | 2529 | 2184.31225076755 | 344.687749232453 |
| 26 | 2472 | 2686.94799112296 | -214.947991122958 |
| 27 | 3134 | 3132.94575940254 | 1.05424059746383 |
| 28 | 2789 | 2986.57353373055 | -197.573533730553 |
| 29 | 2758 | 2781.72444066096 | -23.7244406609598 |
| 30 | 2993 | 2728.01963951761 | 264.980360482394 |
| 31 | 3282 | 3137.64321765883 | 144.356782341169 |
| 32 | 3437 | 4182.95408726275 | -745.954087262747 |
| 33 | 2804 | 2757.90169803649 | 46.0983019635109 |
| 34 | 3076 | 3298.86754297183 | -222.867542971832 |
| 35 | 3782 | 4142.85719190746 | -360.857191907457 |
| 36 | 3889 | 4102.49717875758 | -213.497178757575 |
| 37 | 2271 | 2291.3499594395 | -20.3499594394980 |
| 38 | 2452 | 2442.28447537688 | 9.71552462311502 |
| 39 | 3084 | 3026.03531927356 | 57.9646807264371 |
| 40 | 2522 | 2831.01685839742 | -309.016858397422 |
| 41 | 2769 | 2647.93666754506 | 121.063332454938 |
| 42 | 3438 | 2744.35961559261 | 693.640384407395 |
| 43 | 2839 | 3273.33897787271 | -434.338977872713 |
| 44 | 3746 | 3736.29201683936 | 9.70798316063838 |
| 45 | 2632 | 2849.36695828950 | -217.366958289504 |
| 46 | 2851 | 3188.29601732302 | -337.296017323021 |
| 47 | 3871 | 3912.52244562161 | -41.5224456216129 |
| 48 | 3618 | 4039.31927743104 | -421.319277431045 |
| 49 | 2389 | 2245.53854743103 | 143.461452568965 |
| 50 | 2344 | 2467.71088386613 | -123.710883866128 |
| 51 | 2678 | 3010.28585660102 | -332.285856601022 |
| 52 | 2492 | 2552.69802575038 | -60.6980257503751 |
| 53 | 2858 | 2610.56924010095 | 247.430759899048 |
| 54 | 2246 | 2933.04347847209 | -687.04347847209 |
| 55 | 2800 | 2559.03307821820 | 240.966921781798 |
| 56 | 3869 | 3345.70983198529 | 523.290168014706 |
| 57 | 3007 | 2615.62594789321 | 391.374052106793 |
| 58 | 3023 | 3139.50463909946 | -116.504639099456 |
| 59 | 3907 | 4099.96328287365 | -192.963282873648 |
| 60 | 4209 | 4026.27903115901 | 182.720968840985 |
| 61 | 2353 | 2517.87690113672 | -164.876901136724 |
| 62 | 2570 | 2531.38136064977 | 38.6186393502262 |
| 63 | 2903 | 3088.85754423609 | -185.857544236093 |
| 64 | 2910 | 2760.56295689399 | 149.437043106009 |
| 65 | 3782 | 3026.60819327319 | 755.391806726809 |
| 66 | 2759 | 3154.27350131302 | -395.273501313020 |
| 67 | 2931 | 3269.86980707291 | -338.869807072906 |
| 68 | 3641 | 4051.65694382411 | -410.656943824106 |
| 69 | 2794 | 2874.95772752598 | -80.957727525978 |
| 70 | 3070 | 3035.06948128551 | 34.9305187144878 |
| 71 | 3576 | 4018.10535899468 | -442.105358994679 |
| 72 | 4106 | 3979.73902662874 | 126.260973371255 |
| 73 | 2452 | 2376.65624769638 | 75.3437523036196 |
| 74 | 2206 | 2550.92778697610 | -344.927786976104 |
| 75 | 2488 | 2857.33546422964 | -369.335464229642 |
| 76 | 2416 | 2588.9893835527 | -172.989383552701 |
| 77 | 2534 | 2878.32776861777 | -344.327768617773 |
| 78 | 2521 | 2306.5684216494 | 214.431578350598 |
| 79 | 3093 | 2612.56512273000 | 480.434877270003 |
| 80 | 3903 | 3594.92481758455 | 308.075182415454 |
| 81 | 2907 | 2811.03752163595 | 95.9624783640547 |
| 82 | 3025 | 3079.33402369482 | -54.3340236948206 |
| 83 | 3812 | 3848.93253200061 | -36.9325320006142 |
| 84 | 4209 | 4175.34960117933 | 33.6503988206687 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 2471.07481034546 | 2034.35948904420 | 2907.79013164672 |
| 86 | 2458.75044604526 | 1969.06047973908 | 2948.44041235143 |
| 87 | 2905.90190972403 | 2332.08099969688 | 3479.72281975118 |
| 88 | 2835.85704427651 | 2226.48088442140 | 3445.23320413161 |
| 89 | 3166.12863070004 | 2473.22136480856 | 3859.03589659151 |
| 90 | 2871.16413740044 | 2184.09031920512 | 3558.23795559576 |
| 91 | 3235.36115711707 | 2451.27595883966 | 4019.44635539448 |
| 92 | 4042.71359985493 | 3074.53345724137 | 5010.89374246849 |
| 93 | 3010.76221990253 | 2212.78859366489 | 3808.73584614017 |
| 94 | 3196.65347715677 | 2327.88492030864 | 4065.4220340049 |
| 95 | 4032.75511971334 | 2947.96372307536 | 5117.54651635131 |
| 96 | 4417.44255352766 | 3296.43142553109 | 5538.45368152422 |
