| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.108626533512383 |
| beta | 0.0443274768222541 |
| gamma | 0.509445657854061 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 126 | 130.144329985792 | -4.1443299857923 |
| 14 | 129 | 126.499350708393 | 2.50064929160706 |
| 15 | 124 | 122.353905998396 | 1.64609400160394 |
| 16 | 97 | 98.6534914049896 | -1.65349140498957 |
| 17 | 102 | 103.969081120937 | -1.96908112093722 |
| 18 | 127 | 130.956560413493 | -3.95656041349349 |
| 19 | 222 | 124.118719932714 | 97.8812800672863 |
| 20 | 214 | 147.225480081474 | 66.7745199185265 |
| 21 | 118 | 247.091306508711 | -129.091306508711 |
| 22 | 141 | 168.457612580986 | -27.4576125809861 |
| 23 | 154 | 170.506386760306 | -16.5063867603065 |
| 24 | 226 | 306.518830078138 | -80.518830078138 |
| 25 | 89 | 136.515306433849 | -47.5153064338487 |
| 26 | 77 | 130.979637840337 | -53.9796378403368 |
| 27 | 82 | 119.99308717122 | -37.9930871712199 |
| 28 | 97 | 91.5422752258281 | 5.45772477417189 |
| 29 | 127 | 96.7184475055048 | 30.2815524944952 |
| 30 | 121 | 125.17546301954 | -4.17546301954009 |
| 31 | 117 | 159.414068500372 | -42.4140685003724 |
| 32 | 117 | 150.982093862743 | -33.982093862743 |
| 33 | 106 | 145.852715403994 | -39.8527154039943 |
| 34 | 112 | 125.13574711416 | -13.1357471141602 |
| 35 | 134 | 130.469817762251 | 3.53018223774916 |
| 36 | 169 | 216.267655581326 | -47.2676555813257 |
| 37 | 75 | 91.3833731286713 | -16.3833731286713 |
| 38 | 108 | 85.2355045075275 | 22.7644954924725 |
| 39 | 115 | 88.5796554855126 | 26.4203445144874 |
| 40 | 85 | 87.000067773792 | -2.00006777379201 |
| 41 | 101 | 100.665060659082 | 0.334939340918126 |
| 42 | 108 | 108.693814580134 | -0.693814580133548 |
| 43 | 109 | 122.963372933244 | -13.9633729332437 |
| 44 | 124 | 120.725790784715 | 3.2742092152849 |
| 45 | 105 | 116.587918876876 | -11.5879188768756 |
| 46 | 95 | 111.180723765643 | -16.180723765643 |
| 47 | 135 | 122.586392603095 | 12.4136073969049 |
| 48 | 164 | 181.632752454893 | -17.6327524548934 |
| 49 | 88 | 79.3857306026552 | 8.61426939734481 |
| 50 | 85 | 93.27617160819 | -8.27617160819004 |
| 51 | 112 | 94.3601540573793 | 17.6398459426207 |
| 52 | 87 | 80.0364367209815 | 6.96356327901849 |
| 53 | 91 | 94.8042923777285 | -3.80429237772853 |
| 54 | 87 | 101.359918943627 | -14.3599189436274 |
| 55 | 87 | 107.235546805581 | -20.2355468055815 |
| 56 | 142 | 111.3046880603 | 30.6953119396997 |
| 57 | 95 | 104.007214887084 | -9.00721488708395 |
| 58 | 108 | 97.0298311512986 | 10.9701688487014 |
| 59 | 139 | 123.427936929502 | 15.5720630704977 |
| 60 | 159 | 167.740598016765 | -8.74059801676458 |
| 61 | 61 | 80.9671572713862 | -19.9671572713862 |
| 62 | 82 | 83.650412217381 | -1.65041221738105 |
| 63 | 124 | 96.2433619306847 | 27.7566380693153 |
| 64 | 93 | 79.1761187924212 | 13.8238812075788 |
| 65 | 108 | 89.4959112977372 | 18.5040887022628 |
| 66 | 75 | 93.735469703547 | -18.7354697035471 |
| 67 | 87 | 96.3595655879282 | -9.35956558792824 |
| 68 | 103 | 124.456413412998 | -21.4564134129979 |
| 69 | 90 | 94.8507884972093 | -4.85078849720929 |
| 70 | 108 | 97.1986959491222 | 10.8013040508778 |
| 71 | 123 | 124.301709942004 | -1.30170994200428 |
| 72 | 129 | 153.693016243385 | -24.6930162433847 |
| 73 | 57 | 66.3657330346879 | -9.36573303468786 |
| 74 | 65 | 77.6301027164011 | -12.6301027164011 |
| 75 | 67 | 99.8318070731925 | -32.8318070731925 |
| 76 | 71 | 73.066001855823 | -2.06600185582302 |
| 77 | 76 | 81.3460315251906 | -5.34603152519055 |
| 78 | 67 | 68.2132018611001 | -1.21320186110015 |
| 79 | 110 | 74.8217599136433 | 35.1782400863567 |
| 80 | 118 | 98.4977073281111 | 19.5022926718889 |
| 81 | 99 | 82.7854977252815 | 16.2145022747185 |
| 82 | 85 | 93.608001161439 | -8.60800116143893 |
| 83 | 107 | 110.829270887726 | -3.82927088772593 |
| 84 | 141 | 126.908376437056 | 14.0916235629441 |
| 85 | 58 | 56.9883883481995 | 1.01161165180054 |
| 86 | 65 | 67.1337198501299 | -2.13371985012989 |
| 87 | 70 | 80.1455610066491 | -10.1455610066491 |
| 88 | 86 | 70.2558155422244 | 15.7441844577756 |
| 89 | 93 | 79.2877538828763 | 13.7122461171237 |
| 90 | 74 | 70.1464416478941 | 3.85355835210588 |
| 91 | 87 | 94.6207707691822 | -7.6207707691822 |
| 92 | 73 | 106.536757051462 | -33.5367570514619 |
| 93 | 101 | 84.5891632604955 | 16.4108367395045 |
| 94 | 100 | 84.2582566483616 | 15.7417433516384 |
| 95 | 96 | 105.809380582357 | -9.80938058235658 |
| 96 | 157 | 128.57081336348 | 28.4291866365201 |
| 97 | 63 | 56.1938986640376 | 6.80610133596241 |
| 98 | 115 | 65.5984097826699 | 49.4015902173301 |
| 99 | 70 | 81.7385300934878 | -11.7385300934878 |
| 100 | 66 | 84.0114648703145 | -18.0114648703145 |
| 101 | 67 | 88.926084861005 | -21.926084861005 |
| 102 | 83 | 71.6359029404532 | 11.3640970595468 |
| 103 | 79 | 92.0445101526066 | -13.0445101526066 |
| 104 | 77 | 91.2526370269216 | -14.2526370269216 |
| 105 | 102 | 94.3096772349135 | 7.69032276508651 |
| 106 | 116 | 92.7725914219994 | 23.2274085780006 |
| 107 | 100 | 103.960138512117 | -3.96013851211661 |
| 108 | 135 | 146.181013095457 | -11.1810130954566 |
| 109 | 71 | 59.4955810567124 | 11.5044189432876 |
| 110 | 60 | 87.5332581511854 | -27.5332581511854 |
| 111 | 89 | 68.8503946558846 | 20.1496053441154 |
| 112 | 74 | 71.4261097660891 | 2.57389023391092 |
| 113 | 73 | 76.3830176289111 | -3.38301762891111 |
| 114 | 91 | 76.2153184412705 | 14.7846815587295 |
| 115 | 86 | 85.9001976016533 | 0.0998023983467107 |
| 116 | 74 | 86.0419338854185 | -12.0419338854185 |
| 117 | 87 | 99.7408559627166 | -12.7408559627166 |
| 118 | 87 | 102.851090482 | -15.8510904819999 |
| 119 | 109 | 97.501347692566 | 11.4986523074339 |
| 120 | 137 | 136.890854155909 | 0.109145844090847 |
| 121 | 43 | 63.2410913608103 | -20.2410913608103 |
| 122 | 69 | 68.8421696230088 | 0.157830376991228 |
| 123 | 73 | 74.2204821720876 | -1.22048217208759 |
| 124 | 77 | 66.9013956538392 | 10.0986043461608 |
| 125 | 69 | 69.7004023325345 | -0.700402332534523 |
| 126 | 76 | 77.2606959534877 | -1.26069595348767 |
| 127 | 78 | 78.193196932778 | -0.193196932777923 |
| 128 | 70 | 72.994965168685 | -2.99496516868504 |
| 129 | 83 | 85.8614307729271 | -2.86143077292714 |
| 130 | 65 | 88.1199321684824 | -23.1199321684824 |
| 131 | 110 | 93.325202744719 | 16.674797255281 |
| 132 | 132 | 125.028926281139 | 6.97107371886148 |
| 133 | 54 | 49.24419068585 | 4.75580931414999 |
| 134 | 55 | 66.15440499204 | -11.15440499204 |
| 135 | 66 | 69.3587362360089 | -3.35873623600891 |
| 136 | 65 | 66.9494609232758 | -1.94946092327578 |
| 137 | 60 | 63.6802317161635 | -3.68023171616355 |
| 138 | 65 | 69.8758745470156 | -4.87587454701564 |
| 139 | 96 | 70.5863111852148 | 25.4136888147852 |
| 140 | 55 | 67.2511047857573 | -12.2511047857573 |
| 141 | 71 | 78.0693430549239 | -7.06934305492388 |
| 142 | 63 | 70.8236381507021 | -7.82363815070211 |
| 143 | 74 | 93.7911522141888 | -19.7911522141888 |
| 144 | 106 | 114.027701754812 | -8.02770175481167 |
| 145 | 34 | 44.921607802382 | -10.921607802382 |
| 146 | 47 | 51.0879139381878 | -4.08791393818777 |
| 147 | 56 | 57.0612293037141 | -1.0612293037141 |
| 148 | 53 | 55.4655056047716 | -2.46550560477162 |
| 149 | 53 | 51.6844409288112 | 1.31555907118882 |
| 150 | 55 | 56.6164283593204 | -1.61642835932037 |
| 151 | 67 | 68.3431795382831 | -1.34317953828311 |
| 152 | 52 | 49.1202750112936 | 2.8797249887064 |
| 153 | 46 | 60.9275607944337 | -14.9275607944337 |
| 154 | 51 | 53.4380160602442 | -2.43801606024417 |
| 155 | 58 | 67.2627852423019 | -9.26278524230189 |
| 156 | 91 | 87.8787340750151 | 3.12126592498485 |
| 157 | 33 | 31.8878393325384 | 1.11216066746162 |
| 158 | 40 | 40.4399316160069 | -0.439931616006881 |
| 159 | 46 | 46.6411462022361 | -0.641146202236115 |
| 160 | 45 | 44.6236108414107 | 0.376389158589269 |
| 161 | 41 | 42.9994463968815 | -1.99944639688147 |
| 162 | 55 | 45.3858940440048 | 9.61410595599518 |
| 163 | 57 | 56.2649198863183 | 0.735080113681725 |
| 164 | 54 | 41.8978135232523 | 12.1021864767477 |
| 165 | 46 | 45.8726019259433 | 0.127398074056664 |
| 166 | 52 | 45.69499940265 | 6.30500059735003 |
| 167 | 48 | 56.1587551112398 | -8.15875511123978 |
| 168 | 77 | 79.6008903112322 | -2.60089031123218 |
| 169 | 30 | 28.673809955736 | 1.32619004426398 |
| 170 | 35 | 35.6824320351885 | -0.682432035188498 |
| 171 | 42 | 41.0807177349621 | 0.919282265037879 |
| 172 | 48 | 39.8851180695252 | 8.1148819304748 |
| 173 | 44 | 38.3411236627599 | 5.65887633724012 |
| 174 | 45 | 46.3411261013661 | -1.34112610136611 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 175 | 51.5619235009141 | 27.3479799346578 | 75.7758670671703 |
| 176 | 43.0363486474464 | 18.4732086248447 | 67.5994886700481 |
| 177 | 40.5794212762203 | 15.5803790367572 | 65.5784635156834 |
| 178 | 42.847035238375 | 17.1256684729962 | 68.5684020037539 |
| 179 | 45.545839924208 | 18.9257110209831 | 72.165968827433 |
| 180 | 69.2552672809538 | 38.3158393108681 | 100.194695251039 |
| 181 | 25.9495992914595 | 0.502534829184832 | 51.3966637537341 |
| 182 | 31.195120876925 | 4.36681396662183 | 58.0234277872281 |
| 183 | 36.6727619923777 | 7.95617341515892 | 65.3893505695965 |
| 184 | 38.3350252716819 | 8.30805773904951 | 68.3619928043143 |
| 185 | 35.1954443078291 | 5.1772497999042 | 65.213638815754 |
| 186 | 38.6658110623806 | 0.169062067663354 | 77.1625600570979 |
