| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.157425919892856 |
| beta | 0.00100068806935944 |
| gamma | 0.331614444942928 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 217.47 | 215.936746794872 | 1.53325320512815 |
| 14 | 192.34 | 190.726718774353 | 1.61328122564734 |
| 15 | 196.83 | 195.639543385612 | 1.19045661438764 |
| 16 | 186.07 | 185.075991981169 | 0.994008018830982 |
| 17 | 197.31 | 196.489587732823 | 0.820412267177204 |
| 18 | 215.02 | 214.706817589939 | 0.313182410060762 |
| 19 | 242.67 | 228.888828990488 | 13.7811710095118 |
| 20 | 225.17 | 231.376555225045 | -6.20655522504481 |
| 21 | 206.69 | 207.326300858934 | -0.636300858933566 |
| 22 | 197.75 | 199.697432004606 | -1.94743200460579 |
| 23 | 196.43 | 197.267683669683 | -0.837683669683344 |
| 24 | 213.55 | 223.839589856709 | -10.2895898567087 |
| 25 | 222.75 | 220.107389261227 | 2.64261073877270 |
| 26 | 194.03 | 195.094589944037 | -1.06458994403715 |
| 27 | 201.85 | 199.467511518720 | 2.38248848128035 |
| 28 | 189.5 | 189.036719571724 | 0.463280428276391 |
| 29 | 206.07 | 200.318169487794 | 5.75183051220611 |
| 30 | 225.59 | 219.170693092013 | 6.41930690798688 |
| 31 | 247.91 | 238.078701473879 | 9.83129852612092 |
| 32 | 247.64 | 234.36087542832 | 13.2791245716799 |
| 33 | 213.01 | 214.938650429462 | -1.92865042946178 |
| 34 | 203.01 | 206.743880857919 | -3.73388085791916 |
| 35 | 200.26 | 204.346583641123 | -4.08658364112284 |
| 36 | 220.5 | 227.769172320094 | -7.26917232009401 |
| 37 | 237.9 | 228.129420475958 | 9.77057952404166 |
| 38 | 216.94 | 203.207617126416 | 13.7323828735841 |
| 39 | 214.01 | 210.880140949209 | 3.12985905079128 |
| 40 | 196 | 200.037904741079 | -4.03790474107907 |
| 41 | 208.37 | 212.094860387389 | -3.72486038738919 |
| 42 | 232.75 | 229.646950273265 | 3.10304972673504 |
| 43 | 257.46 | 248.990658731228 | 8.46934126877167 |
| 44 | 267.69 | 246.025988158035 | 21.6640118419648 |
| 45 | 220.18 | 223.680088942723 | -3.50008894272295 |
| 46 | 210.61 | 214.738815293542 | -4.12881529354232 |
| 47 | 209.59 | 212.186014385837 | -2.59601438583667 |
| 48 | 232.75 | 234.959463671838 | -2.20946367183788 |
| 49 | 232.75 | 240.883563389053 | -8.13356338905348 |
| 50 | 219.82 | 214.253579494027 | 5.56642050597267 |
| 51 | 226.74 | 217.680263574363 | 9.05973642563697 |
| 52 | 208.04 | 205.771877713733 | 2.26812228626736 |
| 53 | 220.12 | 218.913103456033 | 1.20689654396665 |
| 54 | 235.69 | 239.154211545971 | -3.46421154597053 |
| 55 | 257.05 | 258.967269661633 | -1.91726966163304 |
| 56 | 258.69 | 258.056373183631 | 0.633626816368974 |
| 57 | 227.15 | 225.367514955246 | 1.78248504475442 |
| 58 | 219.91 | 217.081878747732 | 2.82812125226818 |
| 59 | 219.3 | 216.053351063824 | 3.24664893617597 |
| 60 | 259.04 | 239.856305041983 | 19.1836949580169 |
| 61 | 237.29 | 247.498073464635 | -10.2080734646354 |
| 62 | 212.88 | 224.374172154321 | -11.4941721543213 |
| 63 | 226.03 | 226.093210951990 | -0.0632109519897313 |
| 64 | 211.07 | 210.851624150994 | 0.218375849005525 |
| 65 | 222.91 | 223.373957520926 | -0.463957520925590 |
| 66 | 249.18 | 242.046921228653 | 7.1330787713473 |
| 67 | 266.38 | 263.962212014040 | 2.41778798595959 |
| 68 | 268.53 | 264.448908075030 | 4.08109192497045 |
| 69 | 238.02 | 232.626712270446 | 5.39328772955446 |
| 70 | 224.69 | 225.205179642385 | -0.515179642384908 |
| 71 | 213.75 | 223.770252473579 | -10.0202524735795 |
| 72 | 237.43 | 249.938510146204 | -12.5085101462037 |
| 73 | 248.46 | 244.374657199968 | 4.08534280003207 |
| 74 | 210.82 | 223.139712726399 | -12.3197127263990 |
| 75 | 221.4 | 227.920732967889 | -6.52073296788913 |
| 76 | 209 | 211.738246713375 | -2.73824671337476 |
| 77 | 234.37 | 223.601018497036 | 10.7689815029638 |
| 78 | 248.43 | 246.163331467317 | 2.26666853268256 |
| 79 | 271.98 | 265.992565964628 | 5.98743403537179 |
| 80 | 268.11 | 267.504063467781 | 0.605936532219403 |
| 81 | 233.88 | 235.49898427079 | -1.61898427078981 |
| 82 | 223.43 | 225.319106150504 | -1.88910615050349 |
| 83 | 221.38 | 221.008312193292 | 0.371687806708223 |
| 84 | 233.76 | 248.115159036725 | -14.3551590367254 |
| 85 | 243.97 | 246.894660680857 | -2.92466068085702 |
| 86 | 217.76 | 219.968904334693 | -2.20890433469313 |
| 87 | 224.66 | 227.959988695294 | -3.29998869529413 |
| 88 | 210.84 | 213.339971337928 | -2.49997133792812 |
| 89 | 220.35 | 229.012919228812 | -8.66291922881243 |
| 90 | 236.84 | 246.136071458282 | -9.29607145828174 |
| 91 | 266.15 | 265.178380683726 | 0.971619316273689 |
| 92 | 255.2 | 264.38955758331 | -9.18955758331015 |
| 93 | 234.76 | 230.212147493384 | 4.54785250661592 |
| 94 | 221.29 | 220.919984443453 | 0.37001555654723 |
| 95 | 221.26 | 217.589248331563 | 3.67075166843742 |
| 96 | 244.13 | 241.093874356532 | 3.03612564346798 |
| 97 | 245.78 | 245.800992644622 | -0.0209926446220834 |
| 98 | 224.62 | 219.528780757176 | 5.0912192428238 |
| 99 | 234.8 | 228.361826769081 | 6.43817323091881 |
| 100 | 211.37 | 215.497507818307 | -4.12750781830667 |
| 101 | 222.39 | 229.191121915097 | -6.80112191509701 |
| 102 | 249.63 | 246.429623974971 | 3.20037602502859 |
| 103 | 282.29 | 270.309222899684 | 11.9807771003163 |
| 104 | 279.13 | 268.417261347257 | 10.7127386527433 |
| 105 | 236.6 | 241.217356479046 | -4.61735647904592 |
| 106 | 223.62 | 229.319581624087 | -5.69958162408747 |
| 107 | 225.86 | 225.959193197966 | -0.0991931979657181 |
| 108 | 246.41 | 248.696019398983 | -2.28601939898348 |
| 109 | 261.7 | 251.713274979022 | 9.98672502097759 |
| 110 | 225.01 | 228.448685067177 | -3.43868506717686 |
| 111 | 231.54 | 236.317657395310 | -4.77765739531026 |
| 112 | 214.82 | 218.736157252688 | -3.91615725268821 |
| 113 | 227.7 | 231.71667830636 | -4.01667830636009 |
| 114 | 263.86 | 252.189147214319 | 11.6708527856812 |
| 115 | 278.15 | 279.857990024204 | -1.70799002420438 |
| 116 | 274.64 | 275.457044721404 | -0.817044721403818 |
| 117 | 237.66 | 242.157144225776 | -4.49714422577645 |
| 118 | 227.97 | 229.974397549448 | -2.00439754944776 |
| 119 | 224.75 | 228.759599940568 | -4.00959994056765 |
| 120 | 242.91 | 250.26826022279 | -7.35826022279008 |
| 121 | 253.08 | 255.913792841841 | -2.83379284184124 |
| 122 | 228.13 | 226.875366093842 | 1.25463390615843 |
| 123 | 233.68 | 235.105441201518 | -1.42544120151803 |
| 124 | 217.38 | 218.289281020433 | -0.909281020433156 |
| 125 | 236.38 | 231.712452172098 | 4.66754782790176 |
| 126 | 256.08 | 257.934036752268 | -1.85403675226792 |
| 127 | 292.83 | 279.732146281017 | 13.0978537189833 |
| 128 | 304.71 | 277.909909600327 | 26.8000903996727 |
| 129 | 245.57 | 247.932703279028 | -2.36270327902824 |
| 130 | 234.41 | 236.786103773907 | -2.37610377390689 |
| 131 | 234.12 | 234.956091494944 | -0.836091494943815 |
| 132 | 258.17 | 256.032770509436 | 2.13722949056375 |
| 133 | 268.66 | 264.442889963187 | 4.21711003681264 |
| 134 | 245.31 | 237.663485479209 | 7.6465145207909 |
| 135 | 247.47 | 246.158657288898 | 1.31134271110247 |
| 136 | 226.25 | 229.925677244287 | -3.6756772442871 |
| 137 | 251.67 | 244.479249630764 | 7.19075036923641 |
| 138 | 268.79 | 269.283938387169 | -0.493938387169294 |
| 139 | 288.94 | 295.482161602271 | -6.54216160227134 |
| 140 | 290.16 | 294.401816982538 | -4.24181698253756 |
| 141 | 250.69 | 251.389752400718 | -0.699752400718126 |
| 142 | 240.8 | 240.501773254486 | 0.298226745513631 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 143 | 239.524058656281 | 226.403768810319 | 252.644348502243 |
| 144 | 261.564261002314 | 248.282065033786 | 274.846456970841 |
| 145 | 270.219853352328 | 256.777383158911 | 283.662323545745 |
| 146 | 243.734900444157 | 230.13372991917 | 257.336070969144 |
| 147 | 249.255124402856 | 235.4967726652 | 263.013476140512 |
| 148 | 231.420996929259 | 217.506931308208 | 245.335062550310 |
| 149 | 249.588694734073 | 235.520333532305 | 263.657055935841 |
| 150 | 271.11235623088 | 256.89107128645 | 285.333641175310 |
| 151 | 295.696643599861 | 281.323762665518 | 310.069524534204 |
| 152 | 296.288211985674 | 281.765020941902 | 310.811403029446 |
| 153 | 254.933543419649 | 240.261288336053 | 269.605798503244 |
| 154 | 244.434615509401 | 229.614504567526 | 259.254726451277 |
