| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.298636158049011 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.619823384767296 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 37702 | 40443.7037927351 | -2741.70379273505 |
| 14 | 30364 | 31996.9844988044 | -1632.98449880435 |
| 15 | 32609 | 33561.8688751679 | -952.86887516793 |
| 16 | 30212 | 30629.3187017367 | -417.31870173672 |
| 17 | 29965 | 29937.6615078748 | 27.3384921251818 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28050.12836337 | 301.871636629967 |
| 19 | 25814 | 21460.4140757306 | 4353.5859242694 |
| 20 | 22414 | 20567.6048431308 | 1846.39515686924 |
| 21 | 20506 | 21231.3911255919 | -725.391125591916 |
| 22 | 28806 | 27004.3573666691 | 1801.64263333094 |
| 23 | 22228 | 22474.1539274377 | -246.153927437736 |
| 24 | 13971 | 13911.1543908325 | 59.8456091675198 |
| 25 | 36845 | 36937.4508844866 | -92.4508844865995 |
| 26 | 35338 | 29763.8786486656 | 5574.12135133435 |
| 27 | 35022 | 33776.7264539928 | 1245.27354600721 |
| 28 | 34777 | 31733.4363755032 | 3043.56362449683 |
| 29 | 26887 | 32268.6259188965 | -5381.62591889647 |
| 30 | 23970 | 28885.1259418206 | -4915.12594182057 |
| 31 | 22780 | 22498.7957062659 | 281.20429373407 |
| 32 | 17351 | 19299.8958105312 | -1948.89581053121 |
| 33 | 21382 | 17712.2596481312 | 3669.74035186876 |
| 34 | 24561 | 25896.3275058556 | -1335.32750585557 |
| 35 | 17409 | 19539.0897327482 | -2130.08973274819 |
| 36 | 11514 | 10546.5034871906 | 967.49651280944 |
| 37 | 31514 | 33777.6507673379 | -2263.65076733789 |
| 38 | 27071 | 28419.0617150119 | -1348.06171501192 |
| 39 | 29462 | 28482.8512417911 | 979.148758208943 |
| 40 | 26105 | 27141.8424179566 | -1036.84241795661 |
| 41 | 22397 | 22795.8623682015 | -398.862368201477 |
| 42 | 23843 | 21103.1934223411 | 2739.80657765889 |
| 43 | 21705 | 19261.8603927031 | 2443.13960729689 |
| 44 | 18089 | 15739.1196211125 | 2349.8803788875 |
| 45 | 20764 | 17877.7965872684 | 2886.20341273161 |
| 46 | 25316 | 23652.0603236637 | 1663.93967633631 |
| 47 | 17704 | 17845.0117841157 | -141.011784115715 |
| 48 | 15548 | 10793.0241261994 | 4754.97587380063 |
| 49 | 28029 | 33750.5998189922 | -5721.59981899219 |
| 50 | 29383 | 27757.368586067 | 1625.63141393296 |
| 51 | 36438 | 29720.8993216367 | 6717.10067836331 |
| 52 | 32034 | 29217.055281909 | 2816.94471809096 |
| 53 | 22679 | 26299.2991948781 | -3620.29919487807 |
| 54 | 24319 | 25009.0402644495 | -690.040264449468 |
| 55 | 18004 | 22014.4633783915 | -4010.46337839154 |
| 56 | 17537 | 16523.9015942899 | 1013.09840571007 |
| 57 | 20366 | 18496.5183944649 | 1869.48160553511 |
| 58 | 22782 | 23435.8076544214 | -653.807654421384 |
| 59 | 19169 | 16151.9443704819 | 3017.05562951808 |
| 60 | 13807 | 12171.4619609295 | 1635.53803907052 |
| 61 | 29743 | 29643.0658184312 | 99.9341815688058 |
| 62 | 25591 | 28582.3560621918 | -2991.3560621918 |
| 63 | 29096 | 31380.4596235772 | -2284.45962357716 |
| 64 | 26482 | 26492.9417286765 | -10.9417286764692 |
| 65 | 22405 | 19932.2668132161 | 2472.73318678387 |
| 66 | 27044 | 21735.4548384755 | 5308.54516152455 |
| 67 | 17970 | 19088.8124421773 | -1118.81244217734 |
| 68 | 18730 | 16645.6535555293 | 2084.34644447074 |
| 69 | 19684 | 19310.4721237642 | 373.527876235796 |
| 70 | 19785 | 22706.0868862811 | -2921.08688628111 |
| 71 | 18479 | 16340.9360090158 | 2138.06399098422 |
| 72 | 10698 | 11497.3792236086 | -799.379223608617 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 27574.2684090769 | 22373.7296416929 | 32774.807176461 |
| 74 | 25139.8637104647 | 19712.3756604663 | 30567.351760463 |
| 75 | 29138.5975825404 | 23493.2765469672 | 34783.9186181136 |
| 76 | 25921.6495209015 | 20066.5942131785 | 31776.7048286246 |
| 77 | 20443.9496087595 | 14386.4174612339 | 26501.4817562851 |
| 78 | 22741.4791274721 | 16488.02258088 | 28994.9356740643 |
| 79 | 15715.4013080137 | 9271.9750578012 | 22158.8275582261 |
| 80 | 14998.8429807904 | 8370.88968405255 | 21626.7962775282 |
| 81 | 16297.470360516 | 9489.99006560895 | 23104.9506554231 |
| 82 | 18149.2956282438 | 11166.9026983552 | 25131.6885581324 |
| 83 | 14855.8096389228 | 7702.7799249366 | 22008.8393529089 |
| 84 | 8096.77929892456 | 777.089609396782 | 15416.4689884523 |
