| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | sar1 | sar2 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.7592 | 0.0404 | 0.0545 | -0.5699 | -0.2491 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.2575 ) | (0.0557 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.7788 | 0 | 0.0741 | -0.57 | -0.2483 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0.0011 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.00279582204524047 |
| 0.0274680889203376 |
| 0.0096326336321483 |
| 0.0200358209069189 |
| -0.0643780211935839 |
| 0.00966184777438255 |
| -0.00379807326182128 |
| -0.045367182129811 |
| 0.0400583343979106 |
| -0.00974959496298298 |
| -0.0619613955720655 |
| -0.109627643003035 |
| 0.111767172887266 |
| 0.00886334046294688 |
| 0.0503572550425215 |
| -0.0688868491326052 |
| -0.00514269493923582 |
| -0.00443956202871777 |
| -0.0533025313853701 |
| 0.100374269142722 |
| -0.0076341157143796 |
| 0.0565203993105861 |
| 0.0385485604882668 |
| 0.0610589764216446 |
| 0.0485201558089261 |
| -0.052564027222183 |
| -0.151562520641238 |
| 0.00459243301890577 |
| 0.0328884602773676 |
| -0.0216899756776328 |
| -0.0495876597768681 |
| -0.0302341666851027 |
| -0.0300473458675072 |
| -0.00212604976860620 |
| 0.0109170612715150 |
| 0.0460619352966347 |
| -0.0362122123891924 |
| 0.0109350549365561 |
| -0.0791103015720469 |
| 0.0123118539190776 |
| 0.048671375184675 |
| 0.0661909756688281 |
| -0.07911674967335 |
| 0.0190516095431201 |
| -0.06614525134039 |
| 0.0399323118212944 |
| -0.0299660299009017 |
| 0.0767593479186175 |
| -0.059322754886082 |
| 0.00545126096390769 |
| -0.00381103212758482 |
| 0.0169034307286102 |
| 0.00879253245630007 |
| 0.00161907375326908 |
| 0.0222884137977482 |
| -0.0954453346024558 |
| -0.074151998688878 |
| 0.0568284863354913 |
| -0.0394153143550762 |
| 0.00482550075996269 |
| -0.0122849665153653 |
| 0.0317583564547825 |
| 0.0410706185079564 |
| -0.0781081884058628 |
| 0.118379823199477 |
| -0.0504745543487592 |
| 0.00098192465669955 |
| 0.0582570808449394 |
| -0.0337634600432510 |
| 0.0110710188775216 |
| 0.0585488384221393 |
| -0.0470054661613011 |
| -0.00325939738011005 |
| -0.0267273446052285 |
| -0.0162608800244182 |
| 0.0242012394986442 |
| -0.0248827344163520 |
| 0.0822041050239775 |
| -0.050607165531182 |
| 0.0442417382046059 |
| -0.0349384700234205 |
| 0.0214158375491689 |
| -0.00428109968052492 |
| 0.041423008815686 |
| -0.0129874139526036 |
| -0.0901038984073743 |
| 0.102177898437480 |
| -0.0493310255830921 |
| 0.0221401714348235 |
| -0.0201584851280909 |
| 0.0218283624761630 |
| -0.0352339279308724 |
| 0.0683552232389442 |
| -0.113133140083529 |
| 0.0468936630834835 |
| 0.0223615866011579 |
| -0.0582007412783021 |
| 0.0136353683837460 |
| 0.00693094258209648 |
| 0.0561436265897424 |
| 0.0208545144421102 |
| -0.0273549583361614 |
| -0.00717928999062378 |
| 0.029605014446056 |
| 0.0427917625859675 |
| 0.00986013999383095 |
| 0.0562210521660496 |
| 0.0414523951918992 |
| 0.0487936540764324 |
| 0.0078422481566296 |
| 0.042766750394879 |
| -0.0414424342223136 |
| -0.0324021198945586 |
| -0.0373789416389694 |
| 0.0631131990863119 |
| -0.0215255043357523 |
| -0.0532062430956488 |
| 0.0248746660022490 |
| -0.0102282024717004 |
| 0.00491316263077657 |
| 0.128170967433393 |
| -0.088499485557648 |
| 0.0187812782368497 |
| -0.00927751770787788 |
| -0.0259141956621698 |
| -0.0299475915607159 |
| 0.0161238736240690 |
| -0.0824530862953017 |
| 0.0679033453521791 |
| -0.040567635298967 |
| 0.0440665727269742 |
| 0.0248420123205504 |
| 0.137605060857914 |
| 0.0961493207153605 |
| -0.00600077801177745 |
| 0.0769867932189108 |
| 0.0479272052567827 |
| 0.0181024901390754 |
| 0.0105077195812791 |
| -0.152887562426258 |
| -0.057060551455796 |
| -0.0190248009184248 |
| 0.156127741156056 |
| 0.0674693214100359 |
| -0.0254003684215904 |
| -0.0111721791043311 |
| 0.0233140719342182 |
| 0.07524001890576 |
| -0.0202587360779849 |
| -0.0289286665945134 |
| 0.00220098634675692 |
| -0.0118622828050010 |
| -0.0427061241534656 |
| 0.0219717858916235 |
| 0.00879621047583923 |
| 0.0255695136964578 |
| -0.00603166387079135 |
| -0.0401399939862128 |
| -0.083098546076481 |
| -0.0541815247563804 |
| 0.0154728333661547 |
| 0.0624775242040618 |
| 0.0659726031137469 |
| -0.0780262278799881 |
| 0.0495372692033644 |
| 0.0233904612106421 |
| 0.02317516379133 |
| 0.0151639954693787 |
| -0.0464302048531957 |
| -0.00964937957642587 |
| -0.0153152278568438 |
| 0.00133938547433843 |
| 0.0133113800533673 |
| 0.005083858702839 |
| -0.0316194562101275 |
| -0.0391062382382437 |
| 0.0351980617364935 |
| 0.0214998198646015 |
| -0.0196989765074123 |
| 0.0682489031620919 |
| 0.0762688041197155 |
| 0.0453228879891903 |
| -0.0206536772265462 |
| -0.0484352538115074 |
| 0.000764602916699442 |
| -0.0143031095790653 |
| 0.056775582725264 |
| -0.00991733037567588 |
| 0.0165003829204418 |
| -0.0003853997524077 |
| -0.0241851865650888 |
| -0.0413952298065388 |
| -0.00917428040901314 |
| -0.0124138706102226 |
| 0.0159679452617660 |
| -0.00361671390736751 |
| -0.0433860104418251 |
| -0.0167525960730779 |
| 0.00879452414311288 |
| -0.0223740161439085 |
| -0.00180264347820547 |
| -0.106915633834308 |
| -0.0571958601601041 |
| -0.0147265443253484 |
| -0.104977549051701 |
| -0.0674623370998768 |
| -0.157170494101570 |
| -0.125941491880641 |
| 0.072232039426047 |
| 0.0415011071424996 |
| 0.022846975847012 |
| 0.0890915469265745 |
| -0.0873782679750095 |
| -0.126285411987395 |
| 0.0732234625280324 |
| 0.102968221969764 |
| 0.034615854442805 |
| 0.0449711555824011 |
| 0.0401351829221741 |
| 0.0397885387250136 |
| 0.110039429526974 |
| 0.0327944385097729 |
| -0.0388550164039687 |
| -0.00682371681434413 |
| -0.0188571190994962 |
| -0.0108650201503426 |
| 0.058923959011568 |
| 0.109929578585314 |
| 0.0416617553103862 |
| -0.0350591326553347 |
| -0.0242465542335091 |
| -0.00027834024610085 |
| -0.0688241814887407 |
| 0.0357744052537901 |
| 0.102194480691825 |
| -0.0118141927384392 |
| -0.0390623497508322 |
| 0.00286873510837005 |
| -0.0091538843161958 |
| 0.0362782912310347 |
| 0.0116757156482077 |
| 0.00225663263388753 |
| -0.00781140548316639 |
| 0.00896545167987473 |
| -0.046553813179306 |
| 0.0273657671868874 |
| -0.0134193910753901 |
| 0.0124714817878679 |
| 0.000376900976983841 |
| -0.00078412790470539 |
| 0.0167819505746865 |
| 0.00614066160585258 |
| 0.0270378217898566 |
| -0.0256622678127987 |
| 0.00525614853419931 |
| -0.00615296067991844 |
| 0.00851102496124678 |
| 0.0120434608716748 |
| -0.0084189608858214 |
| 0.0155104233582803 |
| 0.00554186551876201 |
| 0.0131000975607525 |
| -0.00769957091654305 |
| -0.0145796521031953 |
| -0.0119647449702804 |
| 0.0119586081746403 |
| 0.043240305613439 |
| 0.0313843684329207 |
| 0.00192667180003570 |
| 0.0247114192568323 |
| -0.048433674753547 |
| 0.00937245118859442 |
| 0.0222241425382674 |
| -0.068047260503104 |
| 0.0553879841199652 |
| -0.000538947456062644 |
| -0.0285577702230313 |
| -0.00657449921227693 |
| -0.0187625342442259 |
| 0.0310118975027987 |
| -0.000667194174061692 |
| -0.0435844224425677 |
| -0.0315508269935219 |
| 0.0077358111264001 |
| 0.0310944989010258 |
| -0.00725519024210275 |
| 0.0147923656336801 |
| -0.0277564355430822 |
| -0.0186207499020590 |
| -0.00771993172549346 |
| -0.00580314392766201 |
| 0.0411340673191853 |
| -0.042088752556757 |
| -0.0527332974245209 |
| -0.017368100625359 |
| -0.00284632470158153 |
| -0.016306088874114 |
| -0.0118177629836942 |
| 0.0204649639529197 |
| 0.0313097290853848 |
| 0.0503691752109012 |
| -0.0387308895775180 |
| 0.0479768404471432 |
| 0.0286144124695822 |
| -0.0395283313449903 |
| -0.0120692574884234 |
| 0.00530876552203363 |
| 0.00393419611896873 |
| 0.0462014330877882 |
| -0.0354668039727075 |
| 0.00697860947358997 |
| 0.0503510264675904 |
| -0.0145193160742880 |
| -0.00658865440518408 |
| -0.0149064872646347 |
| 0.0298364130793809 |
| 0.0788319227019634 |
| -0.0110337852478111 |
| 0.0254831803776234 |
| 0.00719080883013046 |
| 0.0169301924039549 |
| -0.0099521143737693 |
| 0.00718021198819496 |
| 0.0312941277803343 |
| 0.00547781774972833 |
| 0.013986846031544 |
| -0.0432355161199198 |
| 0.00651048084606343 |
| 0.0100438453775951 |
| -0.0410930242472443 |
| -0.0318020894461601 |
| 0.0470804118764256 |
| -0.00273041229332627 |
| -0.000729199297549332 |
| -0.0213950058347980 |
| -0.00420332662518863 |
| 0.0297815482031667 |
| -0.0294499807461062 |
| -0.00428049205299175 |
| -0.0190916865083208 |
| -0.101032505917754 |
| -0.0259834040783531 |
| 0.0504189121123813 |
| 0.091837403342248 |
| -0.0602252022796801 |
| -0.085145629775789 |
| 0.0384221971065344 |
| 0.0345723199600889 |
| 0.0452847603183519 |
| -0.0792991428031553 |
| -0.00709387337440726 |
| 0.0226937781890753 |
| 0.0155727127098411 |
| -0.0493837201281648 |
| 0.065847074721928 |
| -0.0299519994350401 |
| 0.0192004685814067 |
| -0.0479919503479342 |
| -0.0215516215376446 |
| 0.023731407354346 |
| -0.0195903478112687 |
| 0.0344544287476833 |
| 0.0124257021291987 |
| -0.0246618815687896 |
| -0.0122928405606220 |
| 0.0601490736095371 |
| -0.014347270860398 |
| -0.0905337752968634 |
| -0.0140661839842902 |
| -0.0129061441492935 |
| 0.0223776919338699 |
| -0.0136698205466290 |
| -0.0247355837961676 |
| -0.000110016606264196 |
| 0.0252320548237699 |
| -0.0157269157274826 |
| -0.00402664803362818 |
| -0.0208286438259631 |
| 0.00640122969973689 |
| -0.0313907090299304 |
| -0.0497801777204332 |
| 0.0711127689897322 |
| 0.0116924365219169 |
| 0.0317070247264084 |
| 0.000250508038246444 |
| -0.0145484243341536 |
| -0.0616263260280232 |
| 0.00144262235724169 |
| 0.0400142160699346 |
| -8.64223673069375e-06 |
| 0.0120048964770256 |
| -0.0339926569485938 |
| 0.0187105490117396 |
| -0.00274693197043474 |
| 0.00268223249277932 |
| 0.0188758961548259 |
| -0.00815169596272192 |
| -0.0327881979603375 |
| 0.00939025856067133 |
| -0.0838300475919667 |
| 0.0975682343622002 |
| -0.0148059996275167 |
| 0.00627729601156002 |
| 0.0108165731982068 |
| -0.0412167155006298 |
| 0.0275463503871558 |
| 0.0476975108320836 |
| -0.00422978801874807 |
| -0.0463185581027887 |
| -0.0107842083606395 |
| 0.0330330589291581 |
| 0.0212805818805641 |
| 0.0215530933775088 |
| 0.0346028486685373 |
| 0.0570786278034157 |
| -0.0267489122609397 |
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| 0.0319065637191782 |
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| -0.204710713959834 |
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| 0.0381305638031022 |
| -0.064818948233512 |
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