| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ar4 | sar1 | sar2 | sar3 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.7621 | 0.0474 | 0.022 | 0.0433 | -0.6436 | -0.4059 | -0.2636 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.1855 ) | (0.5397 ) | (0.1305 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.7628 | 0.0575 | 0 | 0.054 | -0.6437 | -0.4061 | -0.2642 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.0706 ) | (NA ) | (0.0177 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.7991 | 0 | 0 | 0.0725 | -0.6434 | -0.4047 | -0.2641 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (4e-04 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.00279582100958116 |
| 0.0268031018656562 |
| 0.00955154789725624 |
| 0.0195569812759565 |
| -0.061739256231217 |
| 0.00843409471612575 |
| -0.00269853060960555 |
| -0.0484169613373209 |
| 0.0409221930695124 |
| -0.00832823005395221 |
| -0.0615770612199604 |
| -0.103387750636220 |
| 0.108143412120150 |
| 0.00782679772788993 |
| 0.0438471900950601 |
| -0.0567971198970246 |
| -0.00477600795943755 |
| -0.00110803726870504 |
| -0.0550262044131332 |
| 0.0991357250752818 |
| -0.0050354663095375 |
| 0.0528778570573133 |
| 0.0473903712616626 |
| 0.0581479412294132 |
| 0.0447777942054125 |
| -0.0863404229551818 |
| -0.130201385660542 |
| 0.00368793758664560 |
| 0.0272910654136742 |
| -0.025452475071559 |
| -0.0463715622932305 |
| -0.0377311169245766 |
| -0.0515371781482623 |
| 0.0178530834047881 |
| 0.0139932181642739 |
| 0.0702202583048508 |
| -0.0480005224800499 |
| 0.0161630215369706 |
| -0.0627294344638068 |
| 0.00571653354145418 |
| 0.0373264274983298 |
| 0.0627535926391918 |
| -0.0675661430164709 |
| 0.0330286839944032 |
| -0.0554621744295609 |
| 0.0340195336202949 |
| -0.0366392345277609 |
| 0.0402382361061133 |
| -0.047785467326722 |
| 0.00175463478632487 |
| -0.0132041961926923 |
| -0.00625379014593941 |
| -0.00890335763199968 |
| 0.000469494134861304 |
| 0.0588975060486723 |
| -0.0904266361702692 |
| -0.0752787600476537 |
| 0.0597042442412494 |
| -0.0382979621948589 |
| 0.000248661425611640 |
| -0.00400532786819596 |
| 0.0461051147671974 |
| 0.0394795129188466 |
| -0.102249749938227 |
| 0.134644634005287 |
| -0.0620986235211785 |
| 0.0124919595682114 |
| 0.057599087942509 |
| -0.0295524949243746 |
| -0.0154717351795419 |
| 0.0593503353498246 |
| -0.0395532338253153 |
| -0.00319854796542884 |
| -0.0303504743996341 |
| -0.0113939330232462 |
| 0.0243321276404664 |
| -0.0279624562140119 |
| 0.0616562816220303 |
| -0.0273628073613414 |
| 0.0259216481241444 |
| -0.0326999104958299 |
| 0.021519274480704 |
| 0.000280512469908345 |
| 0.0573631470672025 |
| -0.00516004613316223 |
| -0.086054765219357 |
| 0.102706169487615 |
| -0.0540354645643393 |
| 0.0268951510132953 |
| -0.0209448909820624 |
| 0.0094557241701434 |
| -0.00485479580171733 |
| 0.0307990775658999 |
| -0.0939087525696789 |
| 0.0324181179164054 |
| 0.0189552779544293 |
| -0.056107595593117 |
| 0.0179164076910441 |
| 0.0079187914145491 |
| 0.0498832416349528 |
| 0.0315656389874373 |
| -0.0324900350005746 |
| 0.00621798410245233 |
| 0.0192418329967525 |
| 0.056427070630825 |
| -0.00581004621085546 |
| 0.0574473814536445 |
| 0.0436701443123733 |
| 0.0435441268042869 |
| 0.0114144441046822 |
| 0.0330494920596429 |
| -0.0418538150196062 |
| -0.034815738752882 |
| -0.00751542140242867 |
| 0.0322885822431309 |
| -0.0109203907962812 |
| -0.0548172173133632 |
| 0.0253635904997012 |
| -0.00901319470642248 |
| 0.0050561465180583 |
| 0.132401999730521 |
| -0.058569989603833 |
| 0.00771433109295261 |
| -0.0092424529744628 |
| -0.0135148177800160 |
| -0.0282374117903723 |
| 0.00984415168440656 |
| -0.0740182268326462 |
| 0.0691904159731629 |
| -0.0264686406381536 |
| 0.0357609783421098 |
| 0.0323780545393277 |
| 0.118237379380713 |
| 0.0919857510395246 |
| -0.0100927379320845 |
| 0.0769279326659027 |
| 0.036817966972412 |
| 0.00224082845538121 |
| 0.00709194338842734 |
| -0.144900658800886 |
| -0.0465674106844025 |
| -0.000887075452302266 |
| 0.140711035820372 |
| 0.0705320810648331 |
| -0.0161764261697637 |
| -0.00845724365297196 |
| 0.0226213654661764 |
| 0.0781778609987018 |
| -0.0590919312528171 |
| 0.0142583271729673 |
| 0.00540900593436211 |
| -0.0105924051623263 |
| -0.0352527900888457 |
| 0.0313780850445031 |
| 0.0208444132894572 |
| 0.0307002971383401 |
| 0.0123569298946737 |
| -0.0202167059336063 |
| -0.091430511440048 |
| -0.0620674351556132 |
| -0.0269086686180371 |
| 0.0464771441805301 |
| 0.0622469485897583 |
| -0.0637304992672036 |
| 0.0551935214736421 |
| 0.0148279441323944 |
| 0.00635624135002244 |
| 0.0495008433598936 |
| -0.0173940215427528 |
| -0.00800403246192705 |
| -0.0409965178324483 |
| -0.00973164345378708 |
| 0.00744983705720959 |
| -0.00659401637203194 |
| -0.0299305325859702 |
| -0.0432020106207314 |
| 0.0512333780898611 |
| 0.0180507580295237 |
| -0.019919383837828 |
| 0.0606405505481287 |
| 0.0753160124156964 |
| 0.0381491291595362 |
| -0.0177976990356132 |
| -0.0383784427416627 |
| -0.0127698758530457 |
| -0.00407462126211256 |
| 0.0746905153156532 |
| 0.00479543155127393 |
| 0.0191348948946031 |
| -0.0177362078602639 |
| -0.0362502721579103 |
| -0.0344996082328706 |
| -0.0228458882833995 |
| -0.0049653967587937 |
| 0.0187916114696929 |
| -0.00546595116129556 |
| -0.0459811685944316 |
| -0.0120263718840294 |
| 0.0111601538110380 |
| -0.0285567296766818 |
| 0.0144356912011245 |
| -0.0911513523643546 |
| -0.0435070575372274 |
| -0.0130771038122632 |
| -0.124214195244528 |
| -0.0739137335057758 |
| -0.153004399651683 |
| -0.123975856032707 |
| 0.0616144260074596 |
| 0.0357710497442816 |
| 0.0195271863552833 |
| 0.0929650978956089 |
| -0.0902078624192928 |
| -0.137695151673730 |
| 0.0653205619379378 |
| 0.102409540198217 |
| 0.0260887156524832 |
| 0.0442007428271696 |
| 0.0419030692067040 |
| 0.0340466635071022 |
| 0.0806310864152375 |
| 0.0280730897011900 |
| -0.044430478375181 |
| -0.00604522455637557 |
| -0.0105969781884712 |
| -0.0208614154823259 |
| 0.0356247645137895 |
| 0.0770343397548299 |
| 0.0273294492376239 |
| -0.000236950388062152 |
| -0.00518752538840417 |
| 0.00650036064901283 |
| -0.0379597367199258 |
| 0.0351294878187032 |
| 0.119172186057733 |
| 0.0195548910765724 |
| -0.0411374705357797 |
| 0.00199774047702528 |
| -0.0100772691645306 |
| 0.0168921984351216 |
| 0.0366118467188912 |
| 0.0511995310986739 |
| -0.0125038169244220 |
| -0.0196836732857157 |
| -0.0545181907295684 |
| 0.0152163166789534 |
| -0.0270091903569591 |
| 0.0147547958343450 |
| 0.0127631329715072 |
| -0.00160887814980670 |
| 0.0179354647083150 |
| 0.00181091700564862 |
| 0.0309221488176719 |
| -0.0292887735074228 |
| 0.00574352422481272 |
| 0.00281459225785641 |
| 0.00124477585690386 |
| 0.0103904415796143 |
| -0.0109215112972634 |
| 0.0179958158536206 |
| 0.0158734672087233 |
| 0.0142253645355734 |
| -0.0149522217427234 |
| -0.0144070960610163 |
| -0.00562159860722744 |
| 0.000536538928541219 |
| 0.0517237602778646 |
| 0.0184996883392814 |
| 0.00378076387380766 |
| 0.0268321468956296 |
| -0.0485955234501381 |
| 0.00970904650696136 |
| 0.0300896761350566 |
| -0.0654533482188962 |
| 0.0560183194980097 |
| 0.00222402248852083 |
| -0.0330761555658055 |
| -0.00800972231285435 |
| -0.0200494835430236 |
| 0.0287906238888591 |
| -0.00100329237012797 |
| -0.0316797903400512 |
| -0.0273961436186436 |
| 0.00735470033029584 |
| 0.0204383845926746 |
| -0.0111193515061458 |
| 0.0232029269920537 |
| -0.0269559146365892 |
| -0.0132669976178894 |
| -0.00939239158271521 |
| -0.00396347475435110 |
| 0.0364958639898032 |
| -0.0408396660714465 |
| -0.0448538460407986 |
| -0.0338643984066995 |
| -0.00408729240414063 |
| -0.0206958732292764 |
| -0.0194992082831336 |
| 0.0344996462975788 |
| 0.0236065984798244 |
| 0.0512543852368839 |
| -0.0303322914726194 |
| 0.0329818046738906 |
| 0.0240589160962750 |
| -0.0380558933700437 |
| 0.000210991294652629 |
| 0.00508418280611966 |
| -0.00117662377794980 |
| 0.0351361037558466 |
| -0.0278914786466822 |
| 0.00918860632425123 |
| 0.0455249074554769 |
| -0.0127454811368706 |
| -0.00980262700196288 |
| -0.0173766198294287 |
| 0.0260683665810033 |
| 0.0819638903250413 |
| -0.0119683723745303 |
| 0.0222287437180433 |
| 0.00726170767108147 |
| 0.0240002545198892 |
| 0.00502755851318559 |
| 0.00830136978367602 |
| 0.0393584549678825 |
| 0.00986902967673497 |
| 0.0143233467681680 |
| -0.0482285081233278 |
| 0.000578105529033035 |
| -0.00080792264832974 |
| -0.0292489263880627 |
| -0.0330746247850646 |
| 0.0433383718152021 |
| 0.0134034391726874 |
| -0.00575776394461869 |
| -0.0184690645298238 |
| -0.00722832615136326 |
| 0.0250797149424473 |
| -0.00915970966539481 |
| -0.00323848031094265 |
| -0.0197220872210853 |
| -0.104141435156381 |
| -0.0212348668450462 |
| 0.0544439883621779 |
| 0.0843035123667804 |
| -0.0706326849323809 |
| -0.0735214216587732 |
| 0.0426955648172585 |
| 0.0145903135787075 |
| 0.036161062505133 |
| -0.0707342291018884 |
| -0.00205834542651173 |
| 0.00942827978277894 |
| 0.0124571954738784 |
| -0.047669735190504 |
| 0.0640573269954694 |
| -0.0317525462254724 |
| 0.0139574914296770 |
| -0.0227786621868997 |
| -0.0267980536045567 |
| 0.0100501311269685 |
| -0.0224900257584193 |
| 0.0238886538357463 |
| 0.0162345062862737 |
| -0.0227798546158540 |
| -0.00343306274768018 |
| 0.0536824375424132 |
| -0.0247754516680794 |
| -0.0886967825926073 |
| 0.0181965802856725 |
| -0.00483717028515685 |
| -0.00185790830740951 |
| -0.0300109813843070 |
| -0.0111535216954897 |
| 0.0177553707016749 |
| 0.00157845935476253 |
| -0.00690329727582251 |
| -0.013756089795526 |
| -0.00571495289797452 |
| 0.000907307799271617 |
| -0.0341162334175085 |
| -0.0515252207511647 |
| 0.0683986968558879 |
| 0.00608542660036626 |
| 0.0357422883133785 |
| -0.00208612910970407 |
| -0.0111715599675675 |
| -0.0512989119860809 |
| -0.0087630567208441 |
| 0.0343922291606162 |
| -0.0056910823440055 |
| 0.0105103608507973 |
| -0.0279285062131756 |
| 0.0144643254371735 |
| -0.0215136823019044 |
| -8.50964292231637e-06 |
| 0.0462591067514371 |
| -0.00750734771984973 |
| -0.0282760815547776 |
| 0.00396500741622319 |
| -0.0818969216749572 |
| 0.0876611838517785 |
| -0.0222622760404660 |
| 0.0152841116336919 |
| 0.0196905515789432 |
| -0.0372960294176723 |
| 0.0276046285085569 |
| 0.0414526843939411 |
| -0.00619193810885399 |
| -0.0399584691654082 |
| -0.00920098292943994 |
| 0.030160752131712 |
| 0.0096142784955151 |
| 0.0179812995843389 |
| 0.0349618877315123 |
| 0.0727716360562805 |
| -0.0333513183237106 |
| -0.0429358895161052 |
| -0.00765461528248501 |
| 0.0188641044621054 |
| -0.0140526619239889 |
| -0.0381776139560044 |
| -0.0656543558705112 |
| 0.093667202519327 |
| -0.0295043260604619 |
| -0.037714792676709 |
| 0.0402446820072315 |
| -0.0346960729977242 |
| 0.0303023397712989 |
| -0.0540545065871703 |
| -0.00283930717493508 |
| 0.0350398998906982 |
| -0.00529974583458026 |
| -0.00848372707840994 |
| 0.000708160360804122 |
| -0.00110483903055414 |
| -0.0219472530007798 |
| -0.0303244218189707 |
| -0.00327378149240021 |
| 0.0080159357125873 |
| -0.0210152755709454 |
| 0.0197282442209792 |
| -0.0280121999360445 |
| -0.0397118855361325 |
| 0.0669331536651696 |
| 0.00221803567287759 |
| 0.0220502348849956 |
| -0.0505957130354609 |
| 0.0334428185488958 |
| 0.012366212190551 |
| 0.0238637824233865 |
| -0.0300772185137639 |
| 0.0248776967096958 |
| -0.0033710254035384 |
| 0.00650257526885323 |
| 0.0221999496756453 |
| -0.00927014988639297 |
| -0.0152120838335352 |
| -0.0210705281407542 |
| 0.0033088831120498 |
| 0.0265436767630258 |
| 0.0330530726803371 |
| 0.00618447975969128 |
| 0.00620760079111937 |
| 0.051531081938708 |
| 0.0576574884042649 |
| -0.00841604685582276 |
| -0.00621087147801491 |
| 0.0110972993862255 |
| 0.00777503210777031 |
| 0.017187256329112 |
| -0.00528984509654151 |
| 0.0373320879471022 |
| 0.0151819174359127 |
| 0.0208126270520492 |
| -0.0163520627222145 |
| 0.0608566226971581 |
| -0.0191688630385274 |
| 0.0516019436601201 |
| 0.0351410553337281 |
| -0.0513891839815721 |
| 0.000648543599382378 |
| -0.00891715165091212 |
| -0.0450408776476161 |
| 0.0336218662084042 |
| 0.0106724382963006 |
| 0.0313717084089831 |
| -0.0117188529063221 |
| -0.0426380063416683 |
| 0.0288818875514387 |
| -0.0196156078097216 |
| 0.0101784773430809 |
| 0.00986348170690787 |
| 0.057228686127039 |
| -0.0271305838155551 |
| -0.00730929634623267 |
| -0.00313541720020005 |
| 0.00812719678468277 |
| -0.0266895039111601 |
| 0.0568578534471493 |
| -0.0383763079441426 |
| 0.129572967418043 |
| -0.0995868394379165 |
| -0.00761150642408204 |
| 0.00120038588270655 |
| 0.0107883306083503 |
| -0.0160903673414095 |
| 0.0359739080061834 |
| 0.0270757730615014 |
| -0.0653190140915298 |
| 0.0125770788701454 |
| 0.000874653204454568 |
| -0.0246146906873608 |
| 0.00950578416834436 |
| -0.098167490637644 |
| 0.0843089458528335 |
| 0.00762540734999062 |
| 0.0239276768377241 |
| -0.0021465213573193 |
| -0.00392992381581658 |
| -0.00706697879685292 |
| 0.0270450725459175 |
| -0.0293013601051912 |
| 0.0097535344484747 |
| 0.0209152650778979 |
| 0.0202738396548905 |
| 0.000790275310641686 |
| -0.00508530276012031 |
| 0.00508342479442003 |
| -0.0528387809473214 |
| 0.150124208263959 |
| -0.0140121025163817 |
| 0.000719808730830884 |
| -0.0272443633545731 |
| -0.0336411051205836 |
| -0.0292964978166279 |
| -0.148874303604965 |
| -0.0333642702173598 |
| -0.00602924792796511 |
| 0.069607064644591 |
| 0.0259766990055042 |
| 0.0368993782191689 |
| 0.0682052269224127 |
| -0.00821921792625347 |
| -0.0377972237261033 |
| -0.0514367362682791 |
| -0.0678579725682531 |
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