| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.449324655668049 |
| beta | 0.000702204199901681 |
| gamma | 0.91359324470301 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1281151 | 1215879.20032051 | 65271.7996794872 |
| 14 | 1164976 | 1123508.89631085 | 41467.1036891497 |
| 15 | 1454329 | 1427526.93074225 | 26802.0692577497 |
| 16 | 1645288 | 1624977.39348692 | 20310.6065130809 |
| 17 | 1817743 | 1803208.57365744 | 14534.4263425625 |
| 18 | 1895785 | 1889016.25119662 | 6768.74880337855 |
| 19 | 2236311 | 2150351.62900927 | 85959.3709907318 |
| 20 | 2295951 | 2276399.55256800 | 19551.4474319955 |
| 21 | 2087315 | 2096455.67756703 | -9140.677567031 |
| 22 | 1980891 | 1934653.46433529 | 46237.5356647144 |
| 23 | 1465446 | 1553194.84478781 | -87748.8447878123 |
| 24 | 1445026 | 1502069.82133576 | -57043.8213357613 |
| 25 | 1488120 | 1506307.41874740 | -18187.4187473964 |
| 26 | 1338333 | 1364489.08985710 | -26156.0898570959 |
| 27 | 1715789 | 1630751.38178517 | 85037.6182148324 |
| 28 | 1806090 | 1851127.98145389 | -45037.9814538904 |
| 29 | 2083316 | 1997095.13399795 | 86220.8660020537 |
| 30 | 2092278 | 2111233.71610509 | -18955.7161050858 |
| 31 | 2430800 | 2400869.89038646 | 29930.1096135429 |
| 32 | 2424894 | 2468334.59079676 | -43440.5907967607 |
| 33 | 2299016 | 2245633.6348373 | 53382.3651626995 |
| 34 | 2130688 | 2139786.31006181 | -9098.31006181473 |
| 35 | 1652221 | 1666040.16152991 | -13819.1615299087 |
| 36 | 1608162 | 1663588.26220464 | -55426.2622046359 |
| 37 | 1647074 | 1688108.77785988 | -41034.7778598769 |
| 38 | 1479691 | 1532016.0878417 | -52325.0878417001 |
| 39 | 1884978 | 1842453.05917076 | 42524.9408292447 |
| 40 | 2007898 | 1978266.34052755 | 29631.6594724457 |
| 41 | 2208954 | 2223822.24194732 | -14868.2419473208 |
| 42 | 2217164 | 2239595.86372031 | -22431.8637203104 |
| 43 | 2534291 | 2552233.65191923 | -17942.6519192276 |
| 44 | 2560312 | 2561229.93221186 | -917.932211856823 |
| 45 | 2429069 | 2406314.14770307 | 22754.8522969251 |
| 46 | 2315077 | 2255229.56978893 | 59847.4302110691 |
| 47 | 1799608 | 1810067.21827160 | -10459.2182715959 |
| 48 | 1772590 | 1788173.63652074 | -15583.6365207382 |
| 49 | 1744799 | 1837830.12103192 | -93031.1210319202 |
| 50 | 1659093 | 1652671.14304151 | 6421.85695848591 |
| 51 | 2099821 | 2037218.54237321 | 62602.4576267861 |
| 52 | 2135736 | 2175568.52446285 | -39832.5244628475 |
| 53 | 2427894 | 2367504.83760223 | 60389.162397767 |
| 54 | 2468882 | 2413291.98783606 | 55590.0121639352 |
| 55 | 2703217 | 2763273.76650906 | -60056.766509057 |
| 56 | 2766841 | 2761927.21669718 | 4913.78330281842 |
| 57 | 2655236 | 2621558.28238629 | 33677.7176137082 |
| 58 | 2550373 | 2494062.98796758 | 56310.0120324227 |
| 59 | 2052097 | 2011959.61342718 | 40137.3865728229 |
| 60 | 1998055 | 2010257.46568472 | -12202.4656847171 |
| 61 | 1920748 | 2022506.14416004 | -101758.144160038 |
| 62 | 1876694 | 1883493.52947942 | -6799.52947942377 |
| 63 | 2380930 | 2290393.65028641 | 90536.349713591 |
| 64 | 2467402 | 2389798.81590639 | 77603.1840936118 |
| 65 | 2770771 | 2684997.94568597 | 85773.0543140261 |
| 66 | 2781340 | 2739859.49397499 | 41480.5060250093 |
| 67 | 3143926 | 3025399.16504871 | 118526.834951290 |
| 68 | 3172235 | 3137115.98137739 | 35119.0186226126 |
| 69 | 2952540 | 3024934.58046274 | -72394.5804627389 |
| 70 | 2920877 | 2861275.70919633 | 59601.2908036662 |
| 71 | 2384552 | 2372627.05356212 | 11924.9464378762 |
| 72 | 2248987 | 2332019.83698976 | -83032.8369897637 |
| 73 | 2208616 | 2267468.77927478 | -58852.7792747826 |
| 74 | 2178756 | 2195602.13626053 | -16846.1362605328 |
| 75 | 2632870 | 2647048.41820423 | -14178.4182042321 |
| 76 | 2706905 | 2692954.35185420 | 13950.6481457958 |
| 77 | 3029745 | 2963701.23481053 | 66043.7651894735 |
| 78 | 3015402 | 2987446.61917015 | 27955.3808298483 |
| 79 | 3391414 | 3305698.31579518 | 85715.6842048154 |
| 80 | 3507805 | 3360727.71702716 | 147077.282972842 |
| 81 | 3177852 | 3244815.23623102 | -66963.2362310197 |
| 82 | 3142961 | 3150057.43080498 | -7096.43080497766 |
| 83 | 2545815 | 2607487.54571153 | -61672.5457115322 |
| 84 | 2414007 | 2486048.66734327 | -72041.6673432724 |
| 85 | 2372578 | 2438614.63370534 | -66036.6337053375 |
| 86 | 2332664 | 2384664.69687327 | -52000.6968732695 |
| 87 | 2825328 | 2821657.51661375 | 3670.48338624556 |
| 88 | 2901478 | 2889740.81519683 | 11737.1848031660 |
| 89 | 3263955 | 3185706.00222033 | 78248.9977796697 |
| 90 | 3226738 | 3195782.51034887 | 30955.4896511291 |
| 91 | 3610786 | 3544451.01844139 | 66334.9815586135 |
| 92 | 3709274 | 3621646.65327281 | 87627.3467271915 |
| 93 | 3467185 | 3371324.60061742 | 95860.399382581 |
| 94 | 3449646 | 3379882.52609112 | 69763.473908878 |
| 95 | 2802951 | 2844451.53522264 | -41500.5352226407 |
| 96 | 2462530 | 2726926.88815884 | -264396.888158840 |
| 97 | 2490645 | 2596090.39672371 | -105445.396723710 |
| 98 | 2561520 | 2531488.4758051 | 30031.5241949018 |
| 99 | 3067554 | 3033368.03338712 | 34185.9666128829 |
| 100 | 3226951 | 3119250.46434697 | 107700.535653028 |
| 101 | 3546493 | 3491855.74502243 | 54637.2549775708 |
| 102 | 3492787 | 3467582.1674371 | 25204.8325629011 |
| 103 | 3952263 | 3831516.43187976 | 120746.568120243 |
| 104 | 3932072 | 3943940.23156913 | -11868.2315691286 |
| 105 | 3720284 | 3653090.6150086 | 67193.3849913981 |
| 106 | 3651555 | 3635665.77060187 | 15889.2293981262 |
| 107 | 2914972 | 3020061.79457749 | -105089.794577491 |
| 108 | 2713514 | 2761817.42172716 | -48303.4217271628 |
| 109 | 2703997 | 2808102.81269686 | -104105.812696860 |
| 110 | 2591373 | 2812319.08402944 | -220946.084029439 |
| 111 | 3163748 | 3203497.85472923 | -39749.8547292300 |
| 112 | 3355137 | 3293100.02390865 | 62036.9760913509 |
| 113 | 3613702 | 3618433.59452762 | -4731.59452761617 |
| 114 | 3686773 | 3552599.97614478 | 134173.023855221 |
| 115 | 4098716 | 4013520.2224465 | 85195.7775534969 |
| 116 | 4063517 | 4043198.82689129 | 20318.1731087109 |
| 117 | 3551489 | 3806543.14380253 | -255054.143802528 |
| 118 | 3226663 | 3618368.50975754 | -391705.509757544 |
| 119 | 2656842 | 2758484.5771562 | -101642.577156198 |
| 120 | 2597484 | 2530085.19659178 | 67398.8034082241 |
| 121 | 2572399 | 2600048.37875682 | -27649.3787568221 |
| 122 | 2596631 | 2579624.71591785 | 17006.2840821492 |
| 123 | 3165225 | 3168742.89468948 | -3517.89468948497 |
| 124 | 3303145 | 3325707.61655029 | -22562.6165502854 |
| 125 | 3698247 | 3579285.36251992 | 118961.637480079 |
| 126 | 3668631 | 3638798.84675421 | 29832.1532457881 |
| 127 | 4130433 | 4028049.82710341 | 102383.17289659 |
| 128 | 4131400 | 4032670.87152989 | 98729.1284701149 |
| 129 | 3864358 | 3692593.14930596 | 171764.850694040 |
| 130 | 3721110 | 3627469.04474578 | 93640.9552542237 |
| 131 | 2892532 | 3131763.70632868 | -239231.706328681 |
| 132 | 2843451 | 2926714.057876 | -83263.0578759983 |
| 133 | 2747502 | 2881243.85191718 | -133741.851917182 |
| 134 | 2668775 | 2835663.51673567 | -166888.516735673 |
| 135 | 3018602 | 3331816.95706841 | -313214.957068415 |
| 136 | 3013392 | 3339937.47256149 | -326545.472561494 |
| 137 | 3393657 | 3527923.80589374 | -134266.805893738 |
| 138 | 3544233 | 3428530.84394286 | 115702.156057135 |
| 139 | 4075832 | 3892608.13831852 | 183223.861681476 |
| 140 | 4032923 | 3931482.95341505 | 101440.046584950 |
| 141 | 3734509 | 3629136.33073290 | 105372.669267096 |
| 142 | 3761285 | 3494625.26436288 | 266659.735637121 |
| 143 | 2970090 | 2908998.41163428 | 61091.5883657243 |
| 144 | 2847849 | 2917255.83865995 | -69406.8386599515 |
| 145 | 2741680 | 2852518.04013351 | -110838.040133507 |
| 146 | 2830639 | 2800462.32300309 | 30176.6769969082 |
| 147 | 3257673 | 3311517.57802799 | -53844.5780279944 |
| 148 | 3480085 | 3429526.35542003 | 50558.6445799707 |
| 149 | 3843271 | 3883861.20173513 | -40590.2017351263 |
| 150 | 3796961 | 3952518.93927919 | -155557.939279186 |
| 151 | 4337767 | 4328798.30132974 | 8968.69867026433 |
| 152 | 4243630 | 4248292.30799866 | -4662.30799865816 |
| 153 | 3927202 | 3900277.50027143 | 26924.4997285721 |
| 154 | 3915296 | 3811663.16659534 | 103632.833404661 |
| 155 | 3087396 | 3049315.90801216 | 38080.0919878441 |
| 156 | 2963792 | 2981525.11405577 | -17733.1140557742 |
| 157 | 2955792 | 2919122.43188432 | 36669.5681156823 |
| 158 | 2829925 | 3004296.21376346 | -174371.213763456 |
| 159 | 3281195 | 3381115.12932168 | -99920.1293216813 |
| 160 | 3548011 | 3530873.64642895 | 17137.3535710522 |
| 161 | 4059648 | 3924252.62788640 | 135395.372113596 |
| 162 | 3941175 | 4014118.57059015 | -72943.5705901543 |
| 163 | 4528594 | 4510289.96008606 | 18304.0399139393 |
| 164 | 4433151 | 4427122.95306361 | 6028.04693638626 |
| 165 | 4145737 | 4099808.12401619 | 45928.8759838142 |
| 166 | 4077132 | 4058335.79624799 | 18796.2037520148 |
| 167 | 3198519 | 3224874.86177652 | -26355.8617765205 |
| 168 | 3078660 | 3100016.48266343 | -21356.4826634275 |
| 169 | 3028202 | 3063318.53810005 | -35116.538100048 |
| 170 | 2858642 | 3010004.38764582 | -151362.387645825 |
| 171 | 3398954 | 3434565.36879225 | -35611.3687922517 |
| 172 | 3808883 | 3672078.31336194 | 136804.686638056 |
| 173 | 4175961 | 4178727.43239384 | -2766.43239383725 |
| 174 | 4227542 | 4101662.19701107 | 125879.802988928 |
| 175 | 4744616 | 4733100.86989638 | 11515.1301036160 |
| 176 | 4608012 | 4640730.30713272 | -32718.3071327247 |
| 177 | 4295049 | 4316090.23779858 | -21041.2377985828 |
| 178 | 4201144 | 4230865.80470834 | -29721.8047083411 |
| 179 | 3353276 | 3352863.00691643 | 412.993083572481 |
| 180 | 3286851 | 3242530.30897812 | 44320.6910218834 |
| 181 | 3169889 | 3228423.48949908 | -58534.4894990847 |
| 182 | 3051720 | 3106100.52519276 | -54380.525192759 |
| 183 | 3695426 | 3632497.96110042 | 62928.0388995814 |
| 184 | 3905501 | 4001086.09363987 | -95585.093639873 |
| 185 | 4296458 | 4333083.78489143 | -36625.784891434 |
| 186 | 4246247 | 4305499.40174536 | -59252.4017453594 |
| 187 | 4921849 | 4796132.73853849 | 125716.261461509 |
| 188 | 4821446 | 4732773.27332083 | 88672.7266791705 |
| 189 | 4425064 | 4468541.40282752 | -43477.4028275246 |
| 190 | 4379099 | 4368851.19309578 | 10247.8069042219 |
| 191 | 3472889 | 3523963.43281464 | -51074.4328146395 |
| 192 | 3359160 | 3412564.67874247 | -53404.678742473 |
| 193 | 3200944 | 3302749.7037284 | -101805.703728402 |
| 194 | 3153170 | 3163008.10682421 | -9838.10682420991 |
| 195 | 3741498 | 3768385.11242673 | -26887.1124267261 |
| 196 | 3918719 | 4016790.26708917 | -98071.2670891709 |
| 197 | 4403449 | 4377252.18157065 | 26196.8184293527 |
| 198 | 4400407 | 4366451.35645655 | 33955.6435434455 |
| 199 | 4847473 | 4991990.37755421 | -144517.377554213 |
| 200 | 4716136 | 4788455.1798111 | -72319.1798111014 |
| 201 | 4297440 | 4385234.29667774 | -87794.2966777394 |
| 202 | 4272253 | 4292478.68450884 | -20225.6845088359 |
| 203 | 3271834 | 3402856.49081998 | -131022.490819981 |
| 204 | 3168388 | 3254146.41104936 | -85758.4110493618 |
| 205 | 2911748 | 3105217.30706913 | -193469.307069132 |
| 206 | 2720999 | 2970301.78197178 | -249302.781971778 |
| 207 | 3199918 | 3459173.11880858 | -259255.118808582 |
| 208 | 3672623 | 3566952.9673333 | 105670.032666703 |
| 209 | 3892013 | 4081139.23101098 | -189126.231010978 |
| 210 | 3850845 | 3977083.84712417 | -126238.847124167 |
| 211 | 4532467 | 4440396.39659962 | 92070.6034003822 |
| 212 | 4484739 | 4379104.5266934 | 105634.473306597 |
| 213 | 4014972 | 4047729.41480898 | -32757.4148089779 |
| 214 | 3983758 | 4013386.14465595 | -29628.1446559522 |
| 215 | 3158459 | 3063484.69871836 | 94974.3012816403 |
| 216 | 3100569 | 3038850.54285609 | 61718.4571439149 |
| 217 | 2935404 | 2901802.27506422 | 33601.7249357812 |
| 218 | 2855719 | 2840702.03299176 | 15016.9670082373 |
| 219 | 3465611 | 3443291.30932336 | 22319.6906766407 |
| 220 | 3006985 | 3861229.40645906 | -854244.406459063 |
| 221 | 4095110 | 3795537.91256494 | 299572.087435059 |
| 222 | 4104793 | 3942604.63007496 | 162188.369925035 |
| 223 | 4730788 | 4645335.33760339 | 85452.662396606 |
| 224 | 4642726 | 4587882.3490098 | 54843.650990204 |
| 225 | 4246919 | 4164034.20845246 | 82884.7915475392 |
| 226 | 4308117 | 4183235.20302457 | 124881.796975435 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 227 | 3365503.34197863 | 3143691.37907268 | 3587315.30488458 |
| 228 | 3281491.93931946 | 3038288.87457484 | 3524695.00406408 |
| 229 | 3102575.07483286 | 2839689.39717468 | 3365460.75249104 |
| 230 | 3017024.64730025 | 2735805.86568346 | 3298243.42891703 |
| 231 | 3616533.40789727 | 3318082.22035427 | 3914984.59544028 |
| 232 | 3583435.20005000 | 3268671.45698360 | 3898198.94311639 |
| 233 | 4482309.61172385 | 4152016.83139099 | 4812602.39205672 |
| 234 | 4425815.37316714 | 4080671.28511937 | 4770959.46121491 |
| 235 | 5017175.4488384 | 4657773.74312727 | 5376577.15454954 |
| 236 | 4906010.14252498 | 4532876.4343221 | 5279143.85072785 |
| 237 | 4471692.26062548 | 4085296.10937945 | 4858088.41187151 |
| 238 | 4474818.88817214 | 4075583.04263018 | 4874054.73371409 |
