| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[1235]) |
| 1228 | 233465 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1229 | 146022 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1230 | 142124 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1231 | 118067 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1232 | 83010.0000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1233 | 75695.0000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1234 | 104157.000000000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1235 | 150161 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1236 | 174832 | 131427.0993 | 101374.3232 | 169273.227 | 0.0123 | 0.166 | 0.2249 | 0.166 |
| 1237 | 139935 | 127373.3775 | 91718.502 | 175051.2588 | 0.3028 | 0.0255 | 0.2721 | 0.1744 |
| 1238 | 108749 | 114489.5012 | 78933.4286 | 163862.3096 | 0.4099 | 0.1562 | 0.4435 | 0.0784 |
| 1239 | 109977 | 90759.0301 | 60352.4701 | 134319.0182 | 0.1936 | 0.2091 | 0.6363 | 0.0038 |
| 1240 | 78872 | 69961.5469 | 44945.72 | 106877.4756 | 0.3181 | 0.0168 | 0.3804 | 0 |
| 1241 | 126451 | 105685.8454 | 67911.6768 | 161418.4256 | 0.2326 | 0.8272 | 0.5214 | 0.0589 |
| 1242 | 161295 | 150743.5386 | 97051.2453 | 229831.3677 | 0.3969 | 0.7264 | 0.5058 | 0.5058 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 1236 | 0.1469 | 0.3303 | 0 | 1883985403.2598 | 0 | 0 |
| 1237 | 0.191 | 0.0986 | 0.2144 | 157794359.9275 | 1020889881.5936 | 31951.3674 |
| 1238 | 0.22 | -0.0501 | 0.1597 | 32953354.4865 | 691577705.8913 | 26297.865 |
| 1239 | 0.2449 | 0.2117 | 0.1727 | 369330365.9232 | 611015870.8993 | 24718.7352 |
| 1240 | 0.2692 | 0.1274 | 0.1636 | 79396174.4757 | 504691931.6145 | 22465.3496 |
| 1241 | 0.2691 | 0.1965 | 0.1691 | 431191645.7405 | 492441883.9689 | 22191.0316 |
| 1242 | 0.2677 | 0.07 | 0.1549 | 111333337.7566 | 437997805.9385 | 20928.3971 |
