| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 4581945 | 4581945 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 3874038 | 4133245.53511331 | -33907.2862542628 | -33907.2862515979 | -1.93254225752988 |
| 3 | 4086290 | 4111055.4734103 | -33383.2140759101 | -33383.2140759101 | 0.0648789633012847 |
| 4 | 4364364 | 4252143.42194767 | -28254.2255200298 | -28254.2255200298 | 1.02608921559923 |
| 5 | 3793586 | 4006636.55611844 | -33082.164967723 | -33082.1649677229 | -1.30166028574928 |
| 6 | 4533914 | 4293285.8820103 | -27062.2228174465 | -27062.2228174466 | 1.92870349451728 |
| 7 | 4823043 | 4580454.1661576 | -21672.3235719794 | -21672.3235719794 | 1.90081174845483 |
| 8 | 3981535 | 4259918.35272684 | -26531.765853106 | -26531.765853106 | -1.81010415498851 |
| 9 | 4746356 | 4523553.02751946 | -21968.8172329487 | -21968.8172329487 | 1.75847800562571 |
| 10 | 5284534 | 4934477.64727577 | -15320.7808270611 | -15320.780827061 | 2.62425918316415 |
| 11 | 4264830 | 4575495.96114744 | -20499.175342376 | -20499.175342376 | -2.08370582895248 |
| 12 | 3924674 | 4227026.09085582 | -25359.3473922692 | -25359.3473922692 | -1.98882409690003 |
| 13 | 3734753 | 3942041.79208383 | -2845.9924014881 | 31305.9164322047 | -2.04136673536762 |
| 14 | 3762290 | 3835243.23763575 | -6420.35781358617 | -6420.35782930573 | -0.520747831411165 |
| 15 | 3609739 | 3711254.75981624 | -8819.92561208684 | -8819.92561208688 | -0.679417407214532 |
| 16 | 3877594 | 3802253.32894539 | -7466.64615364224 | -7466.64615364217 | 0.597280934614131 |
| 17 | 3636415 | 3713331.20423287 | -8310.12468735569 | -8310.12468735565 | -0.492371865232398 |
| 18 | 3578195 | 3641151.96000596 | -8875.79455127 | -8875.79455127002 | -0.387410592555851 |
| 19 | 3604342 | 3622011.46434983 | -8959.35239734069 | -8959.35239734064 | -0.0623468930287849 |
| 20 | 3459513 | 3535200.46899123 | -9565.19835028086 | -9565.19835028083 | -0.47313784611818 |
| 21 | 3366571 | 3445142.34381987 | -10175.9823191464 | -10175.9823191464 | -0.489319624173959 |
| 22 | 3371277 | 3406154.90032777 | -10391.1924538789 | -10391.1924538789 | -0.175168676268735 |
| 23 | 3724848 | 3578534.09143702 | -9041.22057551512 | -9041.22057551508 | 1.1112891306655 |
| 24 | 3350830 | 3456634.73860469 | -9867.24794088318 | -9867.24794088318 | -0.68623411627962 |
| 25 | 3305159 | 3339879.33785141 | -5450.34040243179 | 59953.7444394784 | -0.744687936762693 |
| 26 | 3390736 | 3369979.18799694 | -4651.81984456103 | -4651.81985701703 | 0.191688033395808 |
| 27 | 3349758 | 3359345.91217392 | -4730.98452484118 | -4730.98452484121 | -0.0352373660653635 |
| 28 | 3253655 | 3302527.44794319 | -5189.75395655334 | -5189.75395655326 | -0.313738362207209 |
| 29 | 3734250 | 3535848.16908157 | -3580.2428954687 | -3580.24289546869 | 1.4460314636352 |
| 30 | 3455433 | 3492789.25008065 | -3808.79106028019 | -3808.79106028021 | -0.23988747492647 |
| 31 | 2966726 | 3209684.83877088 | -5299.09630668169 | -5299.09630668164 | -1.69859364944446 |
| 32 | 2993716 | 3093765.9543494 | -5864.90152758189 | -5864.90152758185 | -0.673008016912106 |
| 33 | 3009320 | 3048736.10099592 | -6060.74111077941 | -6060.74111077942 | -0.238318807823544 |
| 34 | 3169713 | 3114360.30803182 | -5706.98230381905 | -5706.982303819 | 0.436238195620825 |
| 35 | 3170061 | 3144799.98650165 | -5530.15090558444 | -5530.15090558438 | 0.219979293246189 |
| 36 | 3368934 | 3265940.61184264 | -4914.5698327276 | -4914.56983272758 | 0.770903837148453 |
| 37 | 3292638 | 3250698.76040274 | -4634.45096127418 | 50978.9605862006 | -0.0689333524911753 |
| 38 | 3337344 | 3300325.5808143 | -3729.45305315923 | -3729.45306469584 | 0.30251983160432 |
| 39 | 3208306 | 3250466.02678865 | -4181.18312052763 | -4181.18312052766 | -0.274230116801218 |
| 40 | 3359130 | 3309558.62778557 | -3768.4768571568 | -3768.47685715672 | 0.382320655005199 |
| 41 | 3223078 | 3263211.65286896 | -3981.57666839145 | -3981.57666839145 | -0.258514762911347 |
| 42 | 3437159 | 3357267.3672503 | -3560.02831628646 | -3560.02831628648 | 0.596219858450636 |
| 43 | 3400156 | 3380650.9175238 | -3453.09714069865 | -3453.09714069859 | 0.163965138821655 |
| 44 | 3657576 | 3530102.36498395 | -2870.64021359681 | -2870.64021359678 | 0.930756689314993 |
| 45 | 3765613 | 3657191.80716019 | -2386.04629199046 | -2386.04629199047 | 0.7911876729494 |
| 46 | 3481921 | 3562961.62040586 | -2724.45520413172 | -2724.45520413167 | -0.559173165296477 |
| 47 | 3604800 | 3585709.64419098 | -2631.29887441444 | -2631.2988744144 | 0.155088189289158 |
| 48 | 3981340 | 3799028.75645775 | -1845.79912450457 | -1845.79912450454 | 1.31482646622551 |
| 49 | 3734078 | 3757318.42781536 | -1041.02773749663 | 11451.3051277448 | -0.260302810767183 |
| 50 | 4018173 | 3903530.1246621 | 912.065533587745 | 912.065520436023 | 0.836805777554408 |
| 51 | 3887417 | 3894681.50883467 | 836.213371575516 | 836.213371575445 | -0.0583310682016885 |
| 52 | 3919880 | 3908229.40686284 | 902.045887465902 | 902.045887465963 | 0.0769501704065075 |
| 53 | 4014466 | 3965448.8705407 | 1126.04085527847 | 1126.04085527847 | 0.342219895758586 |
| 54 | 4197758 | 4090560.96202526 | 1550.08029959822 | 1550.0802995982 | 0.754408075683418 |
| 55 | 3896531 | 3985894.59572871 | 1214.51947059637 | 1214.5194705964 | -0.646618604130806 |
| 56 | 3964742 | 3974404.163195 | 1175.96404544877 | 1175.96404544882 | -0.0773613671551536 |
| 57 | 4201847 | 4096846.4666488 | 1536.46581587826 | 1536.46581587825 | 0.738471622602843 |
| 58 | 4050512 | 4071765.44244689 | 1458.21633087698 | 1458.21633087703 | -0.162099053847467 |
| 59 | 3997402 | 4031590.57750584 | 1336.64669622734 | 1336.64669622737 | -0.25354887008652 |
| 60 | 4314479 | 4183887.49000127 | 1775.39824380902 | 1775.39824380904 | 0.919371301185317 |
| 61 | 4925744 | 4557279.92297966 | -4198.86903231605 | 46187.5593687178 | 2.39425205361924 |
| 62 | 5130631 | 4876727.46155913 | -635.732895703676 | -635.732903724136 | 1.86210948367264 |
| 63 | 4444855 | 4642163.59868401 | -2142.59464218533 | -2142.59464218547 | -1.4028126062688 |
| 64 | 3967319 | 4277859.18618523 | -3697.81676147173 | -3697.81676147173 | -2.19500924789548 |
| 65 | 3931250 | 4091251.65516646 | -4301.39958302086 | -4301.39958302083 | -1.11209354618812 |
| 66 | 4235952 | 4169571.32692854 | -4066.82770430085 | -4066.82770430088 | 0.502884657638366 |
| 67 | 4169219 | 4169697.37196857 | -4055.82558976954 | -4055.82558976953 | 0.0255313594840451 |
| 68 | 3779064 | 3959540.1046304 | -4575.58518923091 | -4575.58518923085 | -1.25522526291891 |
| 69 | 3558810 | 3743989.90139772 | -5097.05004107771 | -5097.05004107772 | -1.28500820066684 |
| 70 | 3699466 | 3720396.92359741 | -5142.28078249648 | -5142.28078249645 | -0.112659574047269 |
| 71 | 3650693 | 3683241.35572537 | -5220.07967846196 | -5220.07967846195 | -0.194998005930818 |
| 72 | 3525633 | 3598731.84752221 | -5411.96411116795 | -5411.96411116793 | -0.482969051938163 |
| 73 | 3470276 | 3502583.54482713 | -4200.05649974135 | 46200.621489522 | -0.579346933693746 |
| 74 | 3859094 | 3700448.95720671 | -2298.60692332909 | -2298.60691219831 | 1.17270885193727 |
| 75 | 3661155 | 3679322.98468293 | -2402.1657771555 | -2402.16577715556 | -0.113178174243076 |
| 76 | 3356365 | 3505142.27522528 | -3032.21009410472 | -3032.2100941047 | -1.0420185406983 |
| 77 | 3344440 | 3418732.62185645 | -3267.30312635562 | -3267.30312635558 | -0.507136143991976 |
| 78 | 3338684 | 3375845.57483088 | -3363.45619452022 | -3363.45619452025 | -0.241207826939792 |
| 79 | 3404294 | 3391436.50866392 | -3320.92512771075 | -3320.92512771069 | 0.115437576954568 |
| 80 | 3289319 | 3336671.44039833 | -3431.90611946852 | -3431.90611946848 | -0.313357575431117 |
| 81 | 3469252 | 3408372.79067186 | -3272.98788213228 | -3272.98788213229 | 0.457684624441489 |
| 82 | 3571850 | 3496707.9585845 | -3081.21295995918 | -3081.21295995913 | 0.558061515243621 |
| 83 | 3639914 | 3574105.76816469 | -2913.72716463193 | -2913.72716463192 | 0.490272222394395 |
| 84 | 3091730 | 3314430.58203231 | -3446.02837337282 | -3446.02837337281 | -1.56418400135824 |
| 85 | 3078149 | 3174897.57279084 | -1891.43081163265 | 20805.7389128585 | -0.863290675736078 |
| 86 | 3188115 | 3182387.23348936 | -1814.35115109733 | -1814.35113582617 | 0.054794234128034 |
| 87 | 3246082 | 3217072.66570128 | -1639.17893077834 | -1639.17893077835 | 0.219810284386838 |
| 88 | 3486992 | 3362905.50538521 | -1167.15084145976 | -1167.1508414597 | 0.895145763283636 |
| 89 | 3378187 | 3371235.9146236 | -1143.77364167775 | -1143.77364167772 | 0.0577850967165671 |
| 90 | 3282306 | 3323396.84425038 | -1242.73021780205 | -1242.73021780207 | -0.284334200385147 |
| 91 | 3288345 | 3304605.15987798 | -1277.12490850041 | -1277.12490850034 | -0.106891882364732 |
| 92 | 3325749 | 3316097.43029281 | -1253.05659593419 | -1253.05659593416 | 0.0777897051245723 |
| 93 | 3352262 | 3335681.04161894 | -1214.53992728543 | -1214.53992728544 | 0.126942210773603 |
| 94 | 3531954 | 3441530.67093298 | -1018.61238083462 | -1018.61238083455 | 0.652279816121497 |
| 95 | 3722622 | 3593066.03285816 | -741.008014329791 | -741.008014329776 | 0.929435084232451 |
| 96 | 3809365 | 3709668.51976174 | -528.239555252055 | -528.239555252037 | 0.714920025864863 |
| 97 | 3750617 | 3727221.64469876 | -708.681266651052 | 7795.49392289275 | 0.114142701700218 |
| 98 | 3615286 | 3665690.24532752 | -1152.17745977088 | -1152.17745065026 | -0.357017379215662 |
| 99 | 3696556 | 3682509.35369868 | -1075.6800541922 | -1075.68005419225 | 0.108378420257422 |
| 100 | 4123959 | 3920846.92603304 | -395.913211008133 | -395.913211008065 | 1.45394189495515 |
| 101 | 4136163 | 4036960.85404988 | -141.464779986327 | -141.464779986311 | 0.709031210077163 |
| 102 | 3933392 | 3981154.03375453 | -246.157036439484 | -246.15703643951 | -0.339000238695603 |
| 103 | 4035576 | 4010499.91492215 | -194.673430013589 | -194.673430013539 | 0.180265180155956 |
| 104 | 4551202 | 4301872.18479266 | 293.259076014912 | 293.25907601494 | 1.77634345227377 |
| 105 | 4032195 | 4156537.0854389 | 54.2013544342515 | 54.2013544342387 | -0.887273743412304 |
| 106 | 3970893 | 4056501.72994875 | -108.490410453701 | -108.490410453648 | -0.609833174001059 |
| 107 | 4489016 | 4289562.13377199 | 268.462605091942 | 268.462605091955 | 1.42068549055908 |
| 108 | 5426127 | 4901956.33820704 | 1254.72078574614 | 1254.72078574618 | 3.72967085880101 |
| 109 | 4578224 | 4744393.88416728 | 2661.75328940533 | -29279.2861824447 | -0.998748841520895 |
| 110 | 4126390 | 4404744.85096151 | 418.283950357475 | 418.283942696023 | -2.01717522338852 |
| 111 | 4892100 | 4668613.91676129 | 1425.78885231399 | 1425.7888523139 | 1.59054232868406 |
| 112 | 4128697 | 4377146.71150348 | 678.567141165712 | 678.567141165717 | -1.77942172656519 |
| 113 | 4408721 | 4394115.66302719 | 710.539850798251 | 710.539850798277 | 0.0991546179519769 |
| 114 | 4199465 | 4289154.26647596 | 531.898910821562 | 531.898910821533 | -0.643608514319647 |
| 115 | 4074767 | 4173582.87836486 | 350.302675997652 | 350.302675997664 | -0.707320387479954 |
| 116 | 4161758 | 4167183.69619859 | 340.146412407992 | 340.14641240804 | -0.0411233707377187 |
| 117 | 3891319 | 4018507.65418108 | 120.155784174442 | 120.155784174435 | -0.907971435584331 |
| 118 | 4470302 | 4261945.49622199 | 475.898114595053 | 475.898114595113 | 1.48259287977945 |
| 119 | 4283111 | 4273313.41156498 | 491.739042592156 | 491.739042592181 | 0.0663683558257292 |
| 120 | 3845962 | 4043000.19590635 | 157.142798148601 | 157.14279814865 | -1.40637166521881 |
| 121 | 3911471 | 3976474.83173634 | 688.30155651924 | -7571.31711400372 | -0.41806142609862 |
| 122 | 3798478 | 3878828.3784197 | 103.039286727357 | 103.039277065973 | -0.581314788185182 |
| 123 | 3644313 | 3751884.66183499 | -338.018803584141 | -338.018803584183 | -0.767718465155558 |
| 124 | 3784029 | 3769255.39253612 | -297.002873893279 | -297.002873893255 | 0.107621057468285 |
| 125 | 3647134 | 3703443.44981239 | -413.759011759057 | -413.759011759041 | -0.398828608793797 |
| 126 | 3994662 | 3860426.77491394 | -172.115449462814 | -172.115449462841 | 0.958732027832268 |
| 127 | 3607836 | 3724321.24323768 | -365.226985585635 | -365.226985585631 | -0.82818281843622 |
| 128 | 3566008 | 3639039.56423606 | -481.300990925559 | -481.30099092552 | -0.517408963363842 |
| 129 | 3511412 | 3570303.67406121 | -572.847382271084 | -572.847382271096 | -0.415903617562107 |
| 130 | 3258665 | 3402420.1075301 | -795.118188335485 | -795.118188335438 | -1.01951402803753 |
| 131 | 3486573 | 3447827.95311253 | -734.052584069178 | -734.052584069149 | 0.281542097954524 |
| 132 | 3369443 | 3405647.0656197 | -788.663477867678 | -788.663477867621 | -0.252561348689055 |
| 133 | 3465544 | 3431663.17263823 | -982.606797630265 | 10808.6747787048 | 0.16762886146991 |
| 134 | 3905224 | 3690993.59191603 | 436.336542235684 | 436.33654273059 | 1.54292580140888 |
| 135 | 3733881 | 3714162.84541903 | 508.593640532531 | 508.593640532505 | 0.137473691165778 |
| 136 | 3220642 | 3447861.209517 | -57.2458074667901 | -57.2458074667812 | -1.62191360046433 |
| 137 | 3225812 | 3328162.47701748 | -252.501200648386 | -252.501200648353 | -0.728418972053387 |
| 138 | 3354461 | 3342355.64910856 | -232.189183737963 | -232.189183737984 | 0.0879974946716191 |
| 139 | 3352261 | 3347711.66965117 | -224.91736000013 | -224.917360000092 | 0.034048363512279 |
| 140 | 3450652 | 3403201.22935115 | -155.150386732294 | -155.150386732272 | 0.339492481176954 |
