Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
Jaar[t] = + 2002.34549929866 + 0.00899572606509098Januari[t] -0.000154336094252176Februari[t] -0.00860547413027234Maart[t] -0.0116090941804962April[t] -0.00148760879624506Mei[t] + 0.0114195275650268Juni[t] -0.0110660413095583Juli[t] + 0.00528468027555271Augustus[t] + 0.00328224225795532September[t] + 0.0107420562674009Oktober[t] -0.00644192311092304November[t] -0.000500004790298712December[t] + e[t] |
Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
(Intercept) | 2002.34549929866 | 0.315516 | 6346.2499 | 0 | 0 |
Januari | 0.00899572606509098 | 0.006047 | 1.4877 | 0.139301 | 0.06965 |
Februari | -0.000154336094252176 | 0.004983 | -0.031 | 0.975342 | 0.487671 |
Maart | -0.00860547413027234 | 0.005097 | -1.6885 | 0.093777 | 0.046888 |
April | -0.0116090941804962 | 0.004954 | -2.3435 | 0.020656 | 0.010328 |
Mei | -0.00148760879624506 | 0.003898 | -0.3817 | 0.703341 | 0.35167 |
Juni | 0.0114195275650268 | 0.005138 | 2.2224 | 0.028023 | 0.014011 |
Juli | -0.0110660413095583 | 0.005046 | -2.1932 | 0.030113 | 0.015057 |
Augustus | 0.00528468027555271 | 0.004464 | 1.1839 | 0.238664 | 0.119332 |
September | 0.00328224225795532 | 0.004678 | 0.7016 | 0.484236 | 0.242118 |
Oktober | 0.0107420562674009 | 0.005607 | 1.9158 | 0.057635 | 0.028818 |
November | -0.00644192311092304 | 0.00644 | -1.0002 | 0.319095 | 0.159548 |
December | -0.000500004790298712 | 0.004151 | -0.1205 | 0.904303 | 0.452152 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
Multiple R | 0.504057868519176 |
R-squared | 0.254074334816094 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.183593169601867 |
F-TEST (value) | 3.60485434716972 |
F-TEST (DF numerator) | 12 |
F-TEST (DF denominator) | 127 |
p-value | 0.000120412992620778 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
Residual Standard Deviation | 2.60457523444219 |
Sum Squared Residuals | 861.544143287439 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
1 | 1998 | 2001.32164116102 | -3.32164116101544 |
2 | 1999 | 2002.22708763016 | -3.22708763016007 |
3 | 2000 | 2003.55884836771 | -3.55884836770781 |
4 | 2001 | 2003.80438127754 | -2.80438127754453 |
5 | 2002 | 2002.4865535003 | -0.486553500303723 |
6 | 2003 | 2001.52495406981 | 1.47504593019244 |
7 | 2004 | 2004.3985830649 | -0.398583064899152 |
8 | 2005 | 2002.55526535056 | 2.44473464943544 |
9 | 2006 | 2004.65042223979 | 1.34957776020763 |
10 | 2007 | 2003.87493301768 | 3.12506698232068 |
11 | 1998 | 1997.04622115828 | 0.95377884171754 |
12 | 1999 | 1996.97231207791 | 2.02768792209333 |
13 | 2000 | 2001.82330733676 | -1.8233073367575 |
14 | 2001 | 1999.83700080429 | 1.16299919570716 |
15 | 2002 | 2000.7872402908 | 1.21275970920481 |
16 | 2003 | 2001.67184945185 | 1.32815054815465 |
17 | 2004 | 2002.14955096535 | 1.85044903464946 |
18 | 2005 | 2006.26328307397 | -1.26328307396505 |
19 | 2006 | 2007.82756884933 | -1.82756884932722 |
20 | 2007 | 2005.48564431219 | 1.51435568780977 |
21 | 1998 | 2001.6932188 | -3.69321880000347 |
22 | 1999 | 2000.86966966455 | -1.86966966454915 |
23 | 2000 | 2001.33428707496 | -1.33428707495988 |
24 | 2001 | 2002.0734881726 | -1.07348817259601 |
25 | 2002 | 2001.36564952947 | 0.634350470531302 |
26 | 2003 | 2002.30412436118 | 0.695875638824026 |
27 | 2004 | 2002.37692983421 | 1.62307016578997 |
28 | 2005 | 2004.10377496692 | 0.896225033084543 |
29 | 2006 | 2003.48352691975 | 2.5164730802463 |
30 | 2007 | 2004.03023263229 | 2.96976736771407 |
31 | 1998 | 2001.41906040326 | -3.41906040325729 |
32 | 1999 | 2002.23499697814 | -3.23499697814195 |
33 | 2000 | 2003.20428644622 | -3.20428644621988 |
34 | 2001 | 2001.5705531073 | -0.570553107296044 |
35 | 2002 | 2002.99513548831 | -0.995135488311996 |
36 | 2003 | 2002.63722043773 | 0.36277956227447 |
37 | 2004 | 2002.54213039239 | 1.45786960760803 |
38 | 2005 | 2002.68723593578 | 2.31276406422432 |
39 | 2006 | 2003.66423893581 | 2.33576106418754 |
40 | 2007 | 2003.13681342547 | 3.86318657453171 |
41 | 1998 | 2001.527468459 | -3.52746845899672 |
42 | 1999 | 2001.27951709747 | -2.27951709747016 |
43 | 2000 | 2001.47716124645 | -1.47716124645082 |
44 | 2001 | 2003.16155931338 | -2.16155931337522 |
45 | 2002 | 2001.84324246652 | 0.156757533480286 |
46 | 2003 | 2003.51284965673 | -0.512849656734846 |
47 | 2004 | 2002.12787919424 | 1.87212080575927 |
48 | 2005 | 2002.80723868362 | 2.19276131638356 |
49 | 2006 | 2003.81719659209 | 2.18280340790587 |
50 | 2007 | 2003.4740243962 | 3.52597560380197 |
51 | 1998 | 2000.28679057806 | -2.28679057805747 |
52 | 1999 | 2001.03533314967 | -2.03533314967162 |
53 | 2000 | 2003.37228039845 | -3.37228039845383 |
54 | 2001 | 2001.36748427974 | -0.367484279736059 |
55 | 2002 | 2001.57804399262 | 0.421956007377499 |
56 | 2003 | 2001.78379539533 | 1.21620460467258 |
57 | 2004 | 2001.34249001472 | 2.65750998527617 |
58 | 2005 | 2003.07083953197 | 1.92916046803195 |
59 | 2006 | 2003.75791664176 | 2.2420833582384 |
60 | 2007 | 2001.39149788916 | 5.60850211084301 |
61 | 1998 | 2001.5016801126 | -3.50168011260084 |
62 | 1999 | 2000.93479238271 | -1.93479238270709 |
63 | 2000 | 2001.81728936531 | -1.81728936530641 |
64 | 2001 | 2001.04591312592 | -0.0459131259228172 |
65 | 2002 | 2002.38716600851 | -0.38716600850559 |
66 | 2003 | 2000.81585679551 | 2.18414320448512 |
67 | 2004 | 2003.14211872442 | 0.857881275582722 |
68 | 2005 | 2002.97619115032 | 2.02380884967728 |
69 | 2006 | 2002.48668695454 | 3.51331304546136 |
70 | 2007 | 2002.83507316371 | 4.1649268362857 |
71 | 1998 | 2004.41209062233 | -6.41209062232905 |
72 | 1999 | 1998.45941375853 | 0.540586241464897 |
73 | 2000 | 2003.28169574479 | -3.28169574479327 |
74 | 2001 | 2002.14560575694 | -1.14560575694079 |
75 | 2002 | 2003.0682698571 | -1.06826985709672 |
76 | 2003 | 2000.30571339312 | 2.69428660687594 |
77 | 2004 | 2004.38110709244 | -0.38110709244222 |
78 | 2005 | 2004.37731885843 | 0.622681141569011 |
79 | 2006 | 2006.32094819666 | -0.320948196664141 |
80 | 2007 | 2007.50551453741 | -0.505514537406039 |
81 | 1998 | 2002.41886955175 | -4.4188695517535 |
82 | 1999 | 2002.16419156584 | -3.16419156584271 |
83 | 2000 | 2002.4338925663 | -2.43389256630137 |
84 | 2001 | 2002.3677710989 | -1.36777109889913 |
85 | 2002 | 2002.31863720738 | -0.318637207380209 |
86 | 2003 | 2002.38141515122 | 0.6185848487765 |
87 | 2004 | 2002.4278409527 | 1.57215904729675 |
88 | 2005 | 2002.12095205468 | 2.8790479453245 |
89 | 2006 | 2002.41636374754 | 3.58363625245693 |
90 | 2007 | 2002.66414025459 | 4.33585974541373 |
91 | 1998 | 2002.27667214232 | -4.27667214232194 |
92 | 1999 | 2001.31292571646 | -2.31292571645575 |
93 | 2000 | 2001.60186582997 | -1.60186582996655 |
94 | 2001 | 2003.05785441953 | -2.05785441952584 |
95 | 2002 | 2002.06971169352 | -0.0697116935222853 |
96 | 2003 | 2001.78138076112 | 1.21861923888026 |
97 | 2004 | 2003.14116389172 | 0.858836108280879 |
98 | 2005 | 2002.59605922817 | 2.4039407718253 |
99 | 2006 | 2002.11581007042 | 3.88418992958151 |
100 | 2007 | 2002.93480643313 | 4.06519356687313 |
101 | 1998 | 2002.54136507776 | -4.54136507776241 |
102 | 1999 | 2001.97565042453 | -2.975650424534 |
103 | 2000 | 2003.36544959531 | -3.36544959531141 |
104 | 2001 | 2001.17850445485 | -0.17850445485337 |
105 | 2002 | 2002.71340265581 | -0.713402655805401 |
106 | 2003 | 2001.9889041199 | 1.01109588010354 |
107 | 2004 | 2002.87774038411 | 1.12225961588913 |
108 | 2005 | 2004.3955621214 | 0.604437878595746 |
109 | 2006 | 2003.95203797185 | 2.04796202814544 |
110 | 2007 | 2004.69476753302 | 2.3052324669808 |
111 | 1998 | 2003.20474567706 | -5.20474567706459 |
112 | 1999 | 2000.66961953508 | -1.66961953508388 |
113 | 2000 | 2002.85583515361 | -2.85583515360865 |
114 | 2001 | 2002.7288074409 | -1.72880744090412 |
115 | 2002 | 2001.27887171046 | 0.72112828954491 |
116 | 2003 | 2002.30401972822 | 0.695980271777761 |
117 | 2004 | 2003.12613314097 | 0.873866859026678 |
118 | 2005 | 2002.41564399914 | 2.58435600086434 |
119 | 2006 | 2004.00191784341 | 1.99808215658547 |
120 | 2007 | 2003.51520595491 | 3.48479404508744 |
121 | 1998 | 2002.96714850648 | -4.96714850647986 |
122 | 1999 | 2001.87159661859 | -2.87159661859157 |
123 | 2000 | 2002.57831891823 | -2.57831891822894 |
124 | 2001 | 2001.93970629626 | -0.939706296257636 |
125 | 2002 | 2003.27072890532 | -1.27072890532331 |
126 | 2003 | 2002.47205988882 | 0.527940111175614 |
127 | 2004 | 2001.95398659598 | 2.04601340402004 |
128 | 2005 | 2002.22219651222 | 2.77780348777967 |
129 | 2006 | 2002.67422507686 | 3.32577492314261 |
130 | 2007 | 2003.25353259712 | 3.74646740288454 |
131 | 1998 | 2002.80415641333 | -4.80415641333356 |
132 | 1999 | 2002.0116186585 | -3.0116186585032 |
133 | 2000 | 2002.26222344231 | -2.26222344231102 |
134 | 2001 | 2002.62273034003 | -1.62273034003312 |
135 | 2002 | 2003.11755208662 | -1.11755208662393 |
136 | 2003 | 2001.14134608969 | 1.85865391030546 |
137 | 2004 | 2002.66408027429 | 1.33591972570776 |
138 | 2005 | 2002.12985419213 | 2.87014580787065 |
139 | 2006 | 2002.95895442875 | 3.04104557124753 |
140 | 2007 | 2002.48919921387 | 4.51080078613473 |
Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
16 | 0.452623233273193 | 0.905246466546385 | 0.547376766726807 |
17 | 0.505913647151573 | 0.988172705696854 | 0.494086352848427 |
18 | 0.394209418095768 | 0.788418836191535 | 0.605790581904233 |
19 | 0.7001891303178 | 0.599621739364398 | 0.299810869682199 |
20 | 0.736299856008313 | 0.527400287983375 | 0.263700143991687 |
21 | 0.700817165911257 | 0.598365668177485 | 0.299182834088743 |
22 | 0.608344277047407 | 0.783311445905185 | 0.391655722952593 |
23 | 0.512353783256655 | 0.97529243348669 | 0.487646216743345 |
24 | 0.420556826858033 | 0.841113653716066 | 0.579443173141967 |
25 | 0.378735269996685 | 0.757470539993371 | 0.621264730003315 |
26 | 0.312151850694922 | 0.624303701389844 | 0.687848149305078 |
27 | 0.295166696001401 | 0.590333392002802 | 0.704833303998599 |
28 | 0.276765818435108 | 0.553531636870216 | 0.723234181564892 |
29 | 0.323612796997857 | 0.647225593995713 | 0.676387203002143 |
30 | 0.37916158544133 | 0.75832317088266 | 0.62083841455867 |
31 | 0.361537442629485 | 0.72307488525897 | 0.638462557370515 |
32 | 0.351694575696331 | 0.703389151392663 | 0.648305424303669 |
33 | 0.334022183496448 | 0.668044366992895 | 0.665977816503552 |
34 | 0.275306200943475 | 0.55061240188695 | 0.724693799056525 |
35 | 0.223455330953436 | 0.446910661906873 | 0.776544669046564 |
36 | 0.19236552815107 | 0.38473105630214 | 0.80763447184893 |
37 | 0.188102332957067 | 0.376204665914135 | 0.811897667042933 |
38 | 0.200575912682179 | 0.401151825364358 | 0.799424087317821 |
39 | 0.222934643815266 | 0.445869287630533 | 0.777065356184734 |
40 | 0.280933596942779 | 0.561867193885558 | 0.719066403057221 |
41 | 0.303025783162739 | 0.606051566325478 | 0.696974216837261 |
42 | 0.271135565376066 | 0.542271130752132 | 0.728864434623934 |
43 | 0.229323752762478 | 0.458647505524955 | 0.770676247237522 |
44 | 0.193631801660321 | 0.387263603320642 | 0.806368198339679 |
45 | 0.167118463577012 | 0.334236927154024 | 0.832881536422988 |
46 | 0.136184905414295 | 0.27236981082859 | 0.863815094585705 |
47 | 0.134246845897341 | 0.268493691794682 | 0.865753154102659 |
48 | 0.129522126532504 | 0.259044253065008 | 0.870477873467496 |
49 | 0.134967072225925 | 0.26993414445185 | 0.865032927774075 |
50 | 0.169412607437918 | 0.338825214875836 | 0.830587392562082 |
51 | 0.166269441325709 | 0.332538882651417 | 0.833730558674291 |
52 | 0.149563438442131 | 0.299126876884263 | 0.850436561557869 |
53 | 0.164530822528228 | 0.329061645056456 | 0.835469177471772 |
54 | 0.134514570008124 | 0.269029140016248 | 0.865485429991876 |
55 | 0.107802237220014 | 0.215604474440028 | 0.892197762779986 |
56 | 0.0943164156765984 | 0.188632831353197 | 0.905683584323402 |
57 | 0.107864424333399 | 0.215728848666798 | 0.892135575666601 |
58 | 0.110433237534249 | 0.220866475068498 | 0.88956676246575 |
59 | 0.109864727542514 | 0.219729455085027 | 0.890135272457486 |
60 | 0.263454706314555 | 0.526909412629109 | 0.736545293685445 |
61 | 0.26987333192151 | 0.53974666384302 | 0.73012666807849 |
62 | 0.243395583150101 | 0.486791166300203 | 0.756604416849899 |
63 | 0.222034753733794 | 0.444069507467589 | 0.777965246266206 |
64 | 0.185633824049816 | 0.371267648099632 | 0.814366175950184 |
65 | 0.15399874146634 | 0.30799748293268 | 0.84600125853366 |
66 | 0.152575220629649 | 0.305150441259298 | 0.847424779370351 |
67 | 0.142043805471388 | 0.284087610942776 | 0.857956194528612 |
68 | 0.132266373282743 | 0.264532746565487 | 0.867733626717257 |
69 | 0.168587756342103 | 0.337175512684205 | 0.831412243657897 |
70 | 0.298189516543311 | 0.596379033086621 | 0.70181048345669 |
71 | 0.414988987435783 | 0.829977974871566 | 0.585011012564217 |
72 | 0.37700515056375 | 0.7540103011275 | 0.62299484943625 |
73 | 0.382988255295363 | 0.765976510590727 | 0.617011744704637 |
74 | 0.33796250259803 | 0.67592500519606 | 0.66203749740197 |
75 | 0.291131602821649 | 0.582263205643299 | 0.70886839717835 |
76 | 0.348576815708298 | 0.697153631416596 | 0.651423184291702 |
77 | 0.303915153858659 | 0.607830307717318 | 0.696084846141341 |
78 | 0.274577735315709 | 0.549155470631418 | 0.725422264684291 |
79 | 0.239210637546173 | 0.478421275092346 | 0.760789362453827 |
80 | 0.233896632550423 | 0.467793265100845 | 0.766103367449577 |
81 | 0.315244108593639 | 0.630488217187277 | 0.684755891406361 |
82 | 0.353308712505834 | 0.706617425011669 | 0.646691287494166 |
83 | 0.361355446542047 | 0.722710893084093 | 0.638644553457953 |
84 | 0.329998302010188 | 0.659996604020376 | 0.670001697989812 |
85 | 0.289432156718459 | 0.578864313436918 | 0.710567843281541 |
86 | 0.246891446410842 | 0.493782892821683 | 0.753108553589159 |
87 | 0.21434944154537 | 0.428698883090739 | 0.78565055845463 |
88 | 0.22027479782188 | 0.44054959564376 | 0.77972520217812 |
89 | 0.262570034335386 | 0.525140068670772 | 0.737429965664614 |
90 | 0.340010654374637 | 0.680021308749274 | 0.659989345625363 |
91 | 0.382139564511262 | 0.764279129022525 | 0.617860435488738 |
92 | 0.348485052506234 | 0.696970105012469 | 0.651514947493766 |
93 | 0.333830313839948 | 0.667660627679896 | 0.666169686160052 |
94 | 0.300824357849842 | 0.601648715699683 | 0.699175642150158 |
95 | 0.253753731471393 | 0.507507462942786 | 0.746246268528607 |
96 | 0.217677031889286 | 0.435354063778573 | 0.782322968110714 |
97 | 0.182149818143496 | 0.364299636286993 | 0.817850181856504 |
98 | 0.178671857410217 | 0.357343714820435 | 0.821328142589783 |
99 | 0.195293736537762 | 0.390587473075524 | 0.804706263462238 |
100 | 0.214407786613439 | 0.428815573226879 | 0.78559221338656 |
101 | 0.359642708947674 | 0.719285417895347 | 0.640357291052326 |
102 | 0.406424210285067 | 0.812848420570134 | 0.593575789714933 |
103 | 0.419795729403047 | 0.839591458806093 | 0.580204270596953 |
104 | 0.357524900505048 | 0.715049801010097 | 0.642475099494952 |
105 | 0.302662664931817 | 0.605325329863634 | 0.697337335068183 |
106 | 0.306718146498743 | 0.613436292997487 | 0.693281853501257 |
107 | 0.252901454264843 | 0.505802908529685 | 0.747098545735157 |
108 | 0.22354863260067 | 0.447097265201341 | 0.77645136739933 |
109 | 0.223900626446376 | 0.447801252892752 | 0.776099373553624 |
110 | 0.181102475488926 | 0.362204950977851 | 0.818897524511074 |
111 | 0.183953050167762 | 0.367906100335523 | 0.816046949832238 |
112 | 0.211011903694075 | 0.42202380738815 | 0.788988096305925 |
113 | 0.30074435232673 | 0.601488704653459 | 0.69925564767327 |
114 | 0.251113126016646 | 0.502226252033292 | 0.748886873983354 |
115 | 0.291908938421986 | 0.583817876843971 | 0.708091061578014 |
116 | 0.410155138525184 | 0.820310277050367 | 0.589844861474816 |
117 | 0.372567538568404 | 0.745135077136808 | 0.627432461431596 |
118 | 0.403528280838443 | 0.807056561676887 | 0.596471719161557 |
119 | 0.322135534088283 | 0.644271068176566 | 0.677864465911717 |
120 | 0.261448026446515 | 0.522896052893031 | 0.738551973553485 |
121 | 0.394002551045145 | 0.78800510209029 | 0.605997448954855 |
122 | 0.833540608328123 | 0.332918783343754 | 0.166459391671877 |
123 | 0.716707350732483 | 0.566585298535033 | 0.283292649267517 |
124 | 0.665202095044837 | 0.669595809910326 | 0.334797904955163 |
Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
1% type I error level | 0 | 0 | OK |
5% type I error level | 0 | 0 | OK |
10% type I error level | 0 | 0 | OK |