| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.536698164531748 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 17382 | 20995 | -3613 |
| 3 | 9367 | 19055.9095315468 | -9688.9095315468 |
| 4 | 31124 | 13855.8895696515 | 17268.1104303485 |
| 5 | 26551 | 23123.6527425511 | 3427.34725744895 |
| 6 | 30651 | 24963.1037248368 | 5687.89627516318 |
| 7 | 25859 | 28015.7872157639 | -2156.78721576386 |
| 8 | 25100 | 26858.2434757779 | -1758.24347577786 |
| 9 | 25778 | 25914.597429528 | -136.597429527963 |
| 10 | 20418 | 25841.2858398205 | -5423.28583982055 |
| 11 | 18688 | 22930.6182838578 | -4242.61828385784 |
| 12 | 20424 | 20653.6128381025 | -229.612838102505 |
| 13 | 24776 | 20530.38004934 | 4245.61995066004 |
| 14 | 19814 | 22808.9964841586 | -2994.99648415858 |
| 15 | 12738 | 21201.5873683316 | -8463.58736833163 |
| 16 | 31566 | 16659.195562394 | 14906.804437606 |
| 17 | 30111 | 24659.6501430908 | 5451.34985690917 |
| 18 | 30019 | 27585.3796055144 | 2433.62039448561 |
| 19 | 31934 | 28891.4992044018 | 3042.50079559816 |
| 20 | 25826 | 30524.4037969858 | -4698.40379698576 |
| 21 | 26835 | 28002.7791029145 | -1167.77910291451 |
| 22 | 20205 | 27376.0342018018 | -7171.03420180176 |
| 23 | 17789 | 23527.3533079004 | -5738.35330790037 |
| 24 | 20520 | 20447.5896201156 | 72.4103798844408 |
| 25 | 22518 | 20486.4521380926 | 2031.54786190742 |
| 26 | 15572 | 21576.7801467367 | -6004.78014673669 |
| 27 | 11509 | 18354.0256635664 | -6845.02566356643 |
| 28 | 25447 | 14680.3129537576 | 10766.6870462424 |
| 29 | 24090 | 20458.7741295636 | 3631.22587043635 |
| 30 | 27786 | 22407.646389227 | 5378.35361077296 |
| 31 | 26195 | 25294.1989003316 | 900.801099668417 |
| 32 | 20516 | 25777.6571971318 | -5261.6571971318 |
| 33 | 22759 | 22953.7354370359 | -194.735437035903 |
| 34 | 19028 | 22849.2212854094 | -3821.22128540945 |
| 35 | 16971 | 20798.3788352606 | -3827.37883526055 |
| 36 | 20036 | 18744.2316394086 | 1291.76836059144 |
| 37 | 22485 | 19437.5213475382 | 3047.47865246183 |
| 38 | 18730 | 21073.0975467641 | -2343.09754676412 |
| 39 | 14538 | 19815.561394097 | -5277.56139409697 |
| 40 | 27561 | 16983.1038806815 | 10577.8961193185 |
| 41 | 25985 | 22660.2413125272 | 3324.75868747276 |
| 42 | 34670 | 24444.6331976049 | 10225.3668023951 |
| 43 | 32066 | 29932.5687921142 | 2133.43120788581 |
| 44 | 27186 | 31077.5774055413 | -3891.57740554125 |
| 45 | 29586 | 28988.974954854 | 597.025045145958 |
| 46 | 21359 | 29309.3972007634 | -7950.39720076336 |
| 47 | 21553 | 25042.4336158153 | -3489.43361581532 |
| 48 | 19573 | 23169.6609989519 | -3596.66099895186 |
| 49 | 24256 | 21239.3396423715 | 3016.66035762853 |
| 50 | 22380 | 22858.3757193264 | -478.375719326388 |
| 51 | 16167 | 22601.6323488074 | -6434.63234880736 |
| 52 | 27297 | 19148.1769777658 | 8148.82302223416 |
| 53 | 28287 | 23521.635336893 | 4765.36466310704 |
| 54 | 33474 | 26079.197804907 | 7394.80219509304 |
| 55 | 28229 | 30047.9745700887 | -1818.97457008873 |
| 56 | 28785 | 29071.7342569922 | -286.734256992186 |
| 57 | 25597 | 28917.8445075561 | -3320.84450755611 |
| 58 | 18130 | 27135.5533556554 | -9005.55335565541 |
| 59 | 20198 | 22302.2893990824 | -2104.28939908243 |
| 60 | 22849 | 21172.9211409513 | 1676.07885904872 |
| 61 | 23118 | 22072.4695882132 | 1045.53041178681 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 62 | 22633.6038411813 | 11339.1573963243 | 33928.0502860383 |
| 63 | 22633.6038411813 | 9815.30315143452 | 35451.9045309281 |
| 64 | 22633.6038411813 | 8454.28281901021 | 36812.9248633524 |
| 65 | 22633.6038411813 | 7212.92108305405 | 38054.2865993085 |
| 66 | 22633.6038411813 | 6064.30184007627 | 39202.9058422863 |
| 67 | 22633.6038411813 | 4990.30253782984 | 40276.9051445327 |
| 68 | 22633.6038411813 | 3978.03113601185 | 41289.1765463507 |
| 69 | 22633.6038411813 | 3017.92885827838 | 42249.2788240842 |
| 70 | 22633.6038411813 | 2102.67553504025 | 43164.5321473223 |
| 71 | 22633.6038411813 | 1226.51788374833 | 44040.6897986143 |
| 72 | 22633.6038411813 | 384.836655875413 | 44882.3710264872 |
| 73 | 22633.6038411813 | -426.143628011941 | 45693.3513103745 |
