Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.733486306258628 |
beta | 0.0808324569416258 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 9367 | 13769 | -4402 |
4 | 31124 | 6666.20089967012 | 24457.7991003299 |
5 | 26551 | 22181.7599271191 | 4369.2400728809 |
6 | 30651 | 23221.6860559378 | 7429.31394406221 |
7 | 25859 | 26946.6147764848 | -1087.61477648476 |
8 | 25100 | 24360.0087725479 | 739.991227452079 |
9 | 25778 | 23157.8004558131 | 2620.19954418691 |
10 | 20418 | 23490.0495138939 | -3072.04951389392 |
11 | 18688 | 19464.9715555818 | -776.9715555818 |
12 | 20424 | 17077.2355962348 | 3346.7644037652 |
13 | 24776 | 17912.6314827088 | 6863.36851729118 |
14 | 19814 | 21734.3340205317 | -1920.3340205317 |
15 | 12738 | 18999.4553841875 | -6261.45538418752 |
16 | 31566 | 12709.1851131166 | 18856.8148868834 |
17 | 30111 | 25960.8332540675 | 4150.16674593251 |
18 | 30019 | 28671.4176850619 | 1347.58231493813 |
19 | 31934 | 29406.2422958108 | 2527.75770418919 |
20 | 25826 | 31156.5788846386 | -5330.57888463863 |
21 | 26835 | 26826.8858373811 | 8.11416261886916 |
22 | 20205 | 26413.5321182519 | -6208.53211825192 |
23 | 17789 | 21072.2527145619 | -3283.25271456185 |
24 | 20520 | 17681.9632827592 | 2838.03671724082 |
25 | 22518 | 18949.8216045367 | 3568.17839546334 |
26 | 15572 | 20964.7843628529 | -5392.78436285286 |
27 | 11509 | 16087.2681571244 | -4578.26815712437 |
28 | 25447 | 11535.745203395 | 13911.254796605 |
29 | 24090 | 21370.8254904712 | 2719.17450952882 |
30 | 27786 | 23157.8866462411 | 4628.11335375892 |
31 | 26195 | 26619.5268316666 | -424.526831666597 |
32 | 20516 | 26349.9546469306 | -5833.9546469306 |
33 | 22759 | 21766.7489794017 | 992.251020598309 |
34 | 19028 | 22249.3017598619 | -3221.30175986189 |
35 | 16971 | 19450.2819036022 | -2479.28190360217 |
36 | 20036 | 17048.5280657931 | 2987.47193420693 |
37 | 22485 | 18833.6890257473 | 3651.31097425268 |
38 | 18730 | 21322.2512341212 | -2592.25123412123 |
39 | 14538 | 19077.552780139 | -4539.55278013904 |
40 | 27561 | 15135.3874922222 | 12425.6125077778 |
41 | 25985 | 24373.6469825156 | 1611.35301748439 |
42 | 34670 | 25775.3315395132 | 8894.66846048676 |
43 | 32066 | 33046.5886861862 | -980.588686186216 |
44 | 27186 | 33016.3413318196 | -5830.34133181955 |
45 | 29586 | 29083.1887991843 | 502.811200815715 |
46 | 21359 | 29825.1283495096 | -8466.12834950962 |
47 | 21553 | 23486.5210389634 | -1933.52103896338 |
48 | 19573 | 21824.8542387102 | -2251.85423871016 |
49 | 24256 | 19796.1830831259 | 4459.81691687414 |
50 | 22380 | 22954.8511285616 | -574.851128561557 |
51 | 16167 | 22386.5764699714 | -6219.57646997141 |
52 | 27297 | 17309.2174900833 | 9987.78250991666 |
53 | 28287 | 24711.9050163586 | 3575.09498364136 |
54 | 33474 | 27622.9396507859 | 5851.06034921405 |
55 | 28229 | 32550.2701585221 | -4321.27015852209 |
56 | 28785 | 29760.1295878754 | -975.129587875435 |
57 | 25597 | 29366.5223586529 | -3769.52235865293 |
58 | 18130 | 26699.7732008637 | -8569.77320086373 |
59 | 20198 | 20004.0082132178 | 193.991786782179 |
60 | 22849 | 19747.8465113734 | 3101.15348862661 |
61 | 23118 | 21807.9139485062 | 1310.08605149382 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
62 | 22631.9322942174 | 10335.9037831023 | 34927.9608053325 |
63 | 22495.0204611374 | 6803.7584784293 | 38186.2824438455 |
64 | 22358.1086280575 | 3490.58001031033 | 41225.6372458046 |
65 | 22221.1967949775 | 276.742512249581 | 44165.6510777054 |
66 | 22084.2849618976 | -2895.806541371 | 47064.3764651661 |
67 | 21947.3731288176 | -6059.48826981669 | 49954.2345274519 |
68 | 21810.4612957376 | -9234.02245684973 | 52854.945048325 |
69 | 21673.5494626577 | -12432.0950221592 | 55779.1939474746 |
70 | 21536.6376295777 | -15662.1833760469 | 58735.4586352023 |
71 | 21399.7257964978 | -18930.0996797176 | 61729.5512727131 |
72 | 21262.8139634178 | -22239.8935149817 | 64765.5214418173 |
73 | 21125.9021303379 | -25594.4087126149 | 67846.2129732906 |