Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 9700 | 9700 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 9081 | 9420.74876983189 | -4.57366027258277 | -334.803448964206 | -1.94834264125015 |
3 | 9084 | 9148.23386410293 | -22.2230341314185 | -61.4737147400464 | -1.35938514876797 |
4 | 9743 | 9343.34222928466 | -8.81354308532632 | 396.802047187313 | 1.35795496412481 |
5 | 8587 | 9095.71670401453 | -19.3897234367873 | -504.931078054266 | -1.70069468175497 |
6 | 9731 | 9271.8115669484 | -13.6789574588719 | 455.874226890863 | 1.44996900849938 |
7 | 9563 | 9434.34498941604 | -10.0336633661858 | 125.610338367276 | 1.31903815630069 |
8 | 9998 | 9698.057665009 | -5.32892304644793 | 295.191841813031 | 2.05149160604926 |
9 | 9437 | 9674.89483448955 | -5.62008630303203 | -237.585415498712 | -0.133535063101566 |
10 | 10038 | 9807.96170146545 | -3.34244046637231 | 227.635405416555 | 1.03724496156112 |
11 | 9918 | 9889.11319101532 | -1.93678403949711 | 27.4245584831315 | 0.63142261575917 |
12 | 9252 | 9667.91926929961 | -5.59596808609243 | -412.126898276972 | -1.63792541267238 |
13 | 9737 | 9552.09346520033 | -3.60321825359209 | 186.870444126881 | -0.867991128955308 |
14 | 9035 | 9409.60053648043 | -2.67830097623638 | -372.142520524378 | -1.07958030968515 |
15 | 9133 | 9311.86409925472 | -4.16419357407604 | -177.360706417732 | -0.672654981836742 |
16 | 9487 | 9154.70182524022 | -8.33677975478718 | 334.586912119477 | -1.05064354962543 |
17 | 8700 | 9193.58165472528 | -6.97686101606697 | -494.305114833382 | 0.333390996185739 |
18 | 9627 | 9253.45699318369 | -5.30634135990324 | 372.477247792209 | 0.487322267446532 |
19 | 8947 | 9171.22183771209 | -6.84902720301295 | -222.963862753513 | -0.570817054401088 |
20 | 9283 | 9097.54333298203 | -7.92773975652946 | 186.562788810834 | -0.499534007121835 |
21 | 8829 | 9104.99946190603 | -7.72014666099224 | -276.255374200541 | 0.115264994351102 |
22 | 9947 | 9330.40502674057 | -5.08078861559478 | 612.709238494902 | 1.74691902012461 |
23 | 9628 | 9424.01076845902 | -4.23387532981186 | 202.342379667922 | 0.739021637104409 |
24 | 9318 | 9518.23584335688 | -3.76387411801166 | -201.883309019367 | 0.738226066304609 |
25 | 9605 | 9459.67901215977 | -3.82824221490463 | 146.242938514042 | -0.41299927393743 |
26 | 8640 | 9244.05181693482 | -4.56158951631669 | -600.51921073796 | -1.58336341056381 |
27 | 9214 | 9214.62460786303 | -4.81030747245246 | -0.222171178363598 | -0.181363817381967 |
28 | 9567 | 9224.5152588269 | -4.57409510505649 | 342.252962468666 | 0.105418963881337 |
29 | 8547 | 9155.49210322739 | -5.80547880389003 | -607.478854336245 | -0.463545967786301 |
30 | 9185 | 8982.94086052249 | -8.98976466669212 | 204.717139594042 | -1.21612196637376 |
31 | 9470 | 9195.95126348248 | -5.17620808386451 | 270.452128936887 | 1.64060386180114 |
32 | 9123 | 9183.67815616814 | -5.27929635280281 | -60.5618446083347 | -0.0528713661577582 |
33 | 9278 | 9382.20014572002 | -2.87336903490704 | -107.561757229977 | 1.52368500476979 |
34 | 10170 | 9524.09839580382 | -1.54047710518845 | 643.506364434869 | 1.08334468835021 |
35 | 9434 | 9459.83211001621 | -1.967145386125 | -24.7927357315284 | -0.469412703827005 |
36 | 9655 | 9554.21363594272 | -1.49188759469307 | 99.1883573335506 | 0.721118803353077 |
37 | 9429 | 9426.43988373316 | -2.04155098363777 | 4.65231585190786 | -0.943920679048537 |
38 | 8739 | 9354.04326894093 | -2.44752304155232 | -613.885897199703 | -0.522581909811403 |
39 | 9552 | 9400.49008229663 | -2.02056832730934 | 150.716206396068 | 0.359348877235232 |
40 | 9687 | 9364.46769468858 | -2.42479727891175 | 323.077525490935 | -0.247868668824745 |
41 | 9019 | 9439.23969303499 | -1.34123315353324 | -421.472750220915 | 0.562507597657474 |
42 | 9672 | 9526.3117944858 | -0.0429565669624922 | 144.269050728541 | 0.64814873561941 |
43 | 9206 | 9354.36766716141 | -2.44571076081891 | -145.583941856492 | -1.27010850628161 |
44 | 9069 | 9291.78693459228 | -3.18994179233633 | -221.805171187696 | -0.447026313045732 |
45 | 9788 | 9527.27200153755 | -0.715975227978509 | 256.809827875677 | 1.78025952002197 |
46 | 10312 | 9624.42434084441 | 0.100075150472991 | 685.96404164512 | 0.731000413630024 |
47 | 10105 | 9836.12568514333 | 1.50181437147834 | 265.384615871371 | 1.58105415816898 |
48 | 9863 | 9824.44525563842 | 1.42860134822711 | 38.7721854398756 | -0.0984553656677268 |
49 | 9656 | 9747.28654198857 | 1.00246121879073 | -89.9926634288087 | -0.585819712707743 |
50 | 9295 | 9801.81332532732 | 1.34074610908583 | -507.690250132224 | 0.397301065018393 |
51 | 9946 | 9816.20190489594 | 1.44461879246933 | 129.585860338051 | 0.0963073674180238 |
52 | 9701 | 9677.0003497466 | 0.0713054622937797 | 26.2725501974939 | -1.03366376752918 |
53 | 9049 | 9569.03474889489 | -1.13218532463277 | -518.29346785566 | -0.793451126625965 |
54 | 10190 | 9686.25291786846 | 0.255496739724403 | 501.83588965169 | 0.871673983985699 |
55 | 9706 | 9795.08386098808 | 1.49955474935747 | -90.8455974944308 | 0.80325982935323 |
56 | 9765 | 9964.85112974562 | 3.26793916612037 | -202.595681500923 | 1.24994658683419 |
57 | 9893 | 9928.37990968991 | 2.90343374384707 | -34.7290747071367 | -0.295993912664426 |
58 | 9994 | 9736.8724802249 | 1.3930406672218 | 260.319853988471 | -1.45005328321816 |
59 | 10433 | 9841.17177924749 | 2.07200420221525 | 590.136244890365 | 0.767875715674426 |
60 | 10073 | 9924.92590321379 | 2.55416915188507 | 146.731042203624 | 0.609240092225543 |
61 | 10112 | 10052.8027370445 | 3.28486615929403 | 57.1397616510376 | 0.933296632597031 |
62 | 9266 | 9964.62346956859 | 2.70195651533584 | -697.126642945911 | -0.679282808379915 |
63 | 9820 | 9805.68085492515 | 1.5148036404318 | 16.9533344473324 | -1.19659266892572 |
64 | 10097 | 9863.91119779651 | 1.99292659556327 | 232.167990292331 | 0.418815651594879 |
65 | 9115 | 9841.33941724132 | 1.76440911339012 | -725.941272815947 | -0.181297827175938 |
66 | 10411 | 9901.66009250841 | 2.33404241141764 | 508.390047295041 | 0.432789884150497 |
67 | 9678 | 9895.09495854041 | 2.24839983386813 | -216.950218273923 | -0.065942989884464 |
68 | 10408 | 10131.5209904236 | 4.36899456875364 | 272.657821178289 | 1.73980299717976 |
69 | 10153 | 10180.0064916749 | 4.73050981782183 | -27.7284212431114 | 0.328406731705262 |
70 | 10368 | 10200.9397297415 | 4.84815277078179 | 166.794595084533 | 0.120753615482844 |
71 | 10581 | 10156.2681295115 | 4.52773784564386 | 425.544693753418 | -0.369205392526939 |
72 | 10597 | 10266.9814072668 | 5.16424053378995 | 328.27556630577 | 0.791445739642711 |
73 | 10680 | 10388.5795537005 | 5.85367871601794 | 289.511168042745 | 0.866899132578154 |
74 | 9738 | 10404.4004928388 | 5.91583858105568 | -666.56360296327 | 0.0740812251511718 |
75 | 9556 | 10104.9905137945 | 3.83303815407537 | -544.006734509468 | -2.26488583771179 |